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Monday, April 15

15th Apr - EU Open: Ranging

Week's main events are the Thu-Fri IMF- and G20-meetings. Dull calendar, so headlines from Europe (remember Friday's gold?) and Japan (today's ex-Soros-aide) dominate. Technical trading it is, then. The earnings season in US is now on, disappointments probable, which could break the mood in other risk markets (yen and bonds). China's Q1 GDP below expectations.

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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News roundup – Between The Hedges
The 6am Cut London – alphaville / FT
Emerging Markets Headlines – beyondbrics / FT

3 Numbers to Watch: NY Fed manufacturing, NAHB housing, EURUSDTradingFloor
Modest declines are expected in today’s US updates on the NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index and the NAHB Housing Market Index. Weak numbers may provide fresh support for the recent EURUSD rally.

Market Preview: Chinese GDP disappoints; EU trade balance eyedTradingFloor
Dismal Chinese GDP data for the first quarter is likely to lead European markets mostly lower at Monday's open. With a relatively light economic calendar, investors will keep an eye on Eurozone trade balance and US NAHB housing data for further cues.

Danske DailyDanske Bank (pdf)
Chinese GDP and industrial production disappoint. Equity markets and bond yields lower on soft data. China and US to work together in North Korea crisis. EU extends loan to Ireland and Portugal. Focus today on US Empire index and NAHB housing index

Kiinan talous arvioitua heikommassa vedossa * Slovenia kestää * USA:n vähittäismyyntiluvut jäivät odotuksista

AamukatsausTapiola (pdf)
Osakemarkkinoille laskupainetta perjantaina USA:n heikoista makroluvuista ja aamulla julkaistuista.Kiinan odotuksia heikommista Q1 BKT -luvuista. Kullan ja hopean hinnassa erittäin voimakas lasku viikon aluksi. Stockmannin ja Keskon maaliskuun myynti heikkoa. Osinkoja irti osakkeesta tänään: Teleste EUR 0.17. Osakefutuurit nollassa, ennakoiden tasaista avausta pörssiin.


When Can We All Admit the Euro is an Economic Failure?Tim Duy’s Fed Watch
How high does unemployment need to rise, how much output needs to be lost, how much poverty must be endured before European policymakers realize that the policymakers see that the framework supporting the Euro politcally is an economic failure?

Our view: Exiting the euro is a debate we must haveCyprus Mail

Europe’s Stark Choice: Resignation or Revolutionnaked capitalism

Slovenia is not the Next Cyprus, but that doesn’t Mean it’s not in TroubleEconoMonitor

German 'Wise Men' push for wealth seizure to fund EMU bail-outsThe Telegraph
Two top advisers to German Chancellor Angela Merkel have called for a tax on private wealth and property in eurozone debtor states to force the rich to fund rescue costs, marking a radical new departure for EMU crisis strategy.

Q1 Earnings Season Kickoff – Here’s What You Should KnowReformed Broker

Peak Recovery?ZH
The strength of the recovery of US equity prices since the 'end' of the recession is equalled only by the post-1982 recovery. The path of recovery so far is eerily similar also. The chart below shows just what happens next - an insance melt-up followed by a purge unlike any other. 1987 deja-vu can't happen all over again?

Ex-Soros Adviser Says BOJ’s Massive Easing to Backfire – BB
The Bank of Japan’s “huge bet” by boosting quantitative easing won’t turn the economy around and is instead sending the nation toward default, said Takeshi Fujimaki, former adviser to billionaire investor George Soros.

Weak GDP questions strength of recovery – Danske Bank (pdf)
Growth disappoints – Nordea
At 7.7% missed estimates, looks even... – alphaville / FT
Growth risks in focus as first quarter data falls short – Reuters  
Growth Loses Momentum in Blow to Global Expansion – BB

Why a Dual Mandate is Essentialmainly macro
Monetary policy has two crucial roles. The first is to set the medium/long term inflation rate. Pretty well everyone understands this. The economy will not by itself settle down to an inflation rate of 2% or whatever - it needs monetary policy to set this rate and help achieve it. The second is to ensure that aggregate demand matches aggregate supply.

Priced For Perfection - A Return To 'Normal' Won't Be EnoughZH
Global equity valuations (MSCI World 1Y Forward P/E) have been highly correlated with G10 Macro Surprises. What should be very clear is the fact that Macro turns lead equity valuation adjustments (red arrows then blue arrows). What is more disconcerting is the current disconnect is very reminiscent of the levels and divergence that occurred in 2008...

Great Graphic: Bank Holdings of Sovereign DebtMarc to Market

"Rethinking Macro Policy II: First Steps and Early Lessons"IMF
16-17 April, conference will be webcast LIVE,

Two Weekend DevelopmentsMarc to Market
1) The largest drop in gold prices in two months…ECB President Draghi's insisted that the proceeds of the gold sales be used to cover the assets of the Emergency Lending Assistance (ELA) program….2) US Treasury's semi-annual report on the foreign exchange market.

Kalenteri Viikko 16Nordea (pdf)

Teollisuuden liikevaihto supistui marras-tammik. vajaat 6% YoYTilastokeskus

Palvelualojen liikevaihto kasvoi marras-tammik. 2,7% YoY  Tilastokeskus