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Monday, April 1

1st Apr - Weekender: Linkfest II

This is the weekend's second large linkfest. The Cyprus bailout special has been updated. The Weekly Support will be updated on Tuesday as the analysts return to their desks.




Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Roundups
News roundup – Between The Hedges
Emerging Markets Headlines – beyondbrics / FT

3 Numbers to Watch: US PMI Mfg., US ISM Mfg., US Construction – TradingFloor
The March updates for the PMI and ISM manufacturing indices are expected to bring encouraging news for the US economic outlook. Meanwhile, US construction spending is projected to rebound in today’s February release after a sharp decline for January.

EUROPE
The Politics of Moral Hazard – Bruegel
Jean Pisani-Ferry: The crisis in Cyprus has shown that the true contest in Europe is less between moral hazard and financial stability than it is between financially sensible and politically acceptable solutions. But politics in Europe is national, so what one parliament regards as the only possible solution another regards as entirely unacceptable.

Why the Euro Is Doomed in 4 Steps – The Atlantic
1. Too Tight Money 2. Too Tight Budgets 3. Too Little Trade 4. Too Much Financial Interconnection

*Euro: Requiem or Renewal? – David Kotok / The Big Picture
Europe’s leaders face a fundamental question regarding the euro. Do they want a requiem, in which case all they have to do is keep doing what they are doing, or do they want a renewal, in which case behavior must change credibly, immediately and decisively?

The Tequila Crisis: The Prelude to Europe’s Economic Storm – Testosterone Pit
"Saving" crisis countries is mostly saving your own banks.

Accounts at EU banks are 'a joke', warn analysts – The Independent
Poor disclosure means depositors cannot tell if a bank is solvent, says credit ratings expert

“The Euro: Monetary Unity To Political Disunity?” – The Market Monetarist
Friedman’s article “The Euro: Monetary Unity To Political Disunity?” from 1997 has turned out to have been particularly prolific.

  ECB
Blow for ECB as wider loan rates hit south – FT
Goldman Sachs’ interest rate divergence indicator shows companies in southern Europe are paying significantly higher interest rates than northern rivals

The ECB and the Austerity Trap – Krugman / NYT
The EC obtuseness on fiscal policy is derived in part from the broader European obtuseness on monetary policy. Still, it’s quite a remarkable thing: we’re five years into this crisis, and key European policy makers still talk as if they were unaware of the central argument their critics have been making from day one.

  FANG
Analysis: Germany sees itself as Europe's grown-up, children sullen – Reuters
Buoyed by solid finances, roaring exports and low unemployment, Germany increasingly sees itself as the only grown-up in Europe, responsible for bringing wayward children into line to hold the family together.

Europe's Last Green Shoot Is Wilting – ZH
Credit Suisse chart on Germany

Dutch consensus for austerity starts to crack – FT

  PIIGS
Who's Next? Italy's Monte Paschi Admits Billions In Deposit Outflows – ZH

Italian President Giorgio Napolitano Denies He Is Stepping Down After Phone Call From ECB President – Mish’s
The ECB clearly does not want to take a chance that Beppe Grillio's Five Star Movement will win the next election, so the pressure is on by the ECB for a different result.

Italian president at center of storm as deadlock continues – Reuters
Italy's 87-year-old President Giorgio Napolitano will face the greatest test of his career during his final weeks in office as he tries to end the standoff preventing a new government being formed more than a month after elections.

UNITED STATES
Macro Report Economic Indicators - US economy - March 2013 – Lighthouse (scribd)

Something's not right about this rally – Humble Student

ASIA
Japan just might be set to open a new chapter – Reuters
‘Historic' is an overused word. But if the Bank of Japan meets expectations and embarks this week on a radical policy shift to crush deflation, the meeting will go down as, well, historic. 

  CHINA PMI
Economists React: China Manufacturing Picks Up in March – WSJ
China March PMIs rebound, domestic demand shines – Reuters
China Manufacturing Expands at Faster Pace, PMI Gauges Show – BB
China PMI Shows Modest Improvement – Mish’s
China PMI: on the up – beyondbrics / FT

OTHER
‘TEMPLATE’
Think Cyprus is unique? Think again warns Citi's Matt King – ZH

GS: Visualizing 193 Years Of Currency Regimes & Crises – ZH

Currency Wars For Dummies – ZH
Charts from Goldman Sachs. Not only will every individual partly have to constantly monitor what everyone else is doing, but in addition, there is a constant risk of escalation into protectionist policies. Trade disputes are already on the rise. The number of WTO dispute cases in 2012 was the highest in 10 years. Finally, the extensive use of macro prudential policies and capital controls as observed in recent years poses the longer-term risk of misallocation of resources.

‘I’ve been able to be me at Goldman’ – FT
Jim O’Neill, retiring chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management and author of the “Bric” acronym, has no idea what he will do after he clears out his office on London’s Fleet Street in a few weeks.

Cleanest Dirty Shirt Or Just The "Most Hopeful"? – ZH
Around the world, analysts and strategists are comfortable marking down expectations for British, European, Asian, and Emerging Market nations but not the good ol' USofA…The normalized forward expectations for EPS... Spot the odd one out!

IN FINNISH
Tämän takia talletussuoja on meilläkin mielikuvakupla – Jan Hurri / TalSa
Jos pankit joutuisivat meillä samanlaiseen pinteeseen kuin Kyproksella, olisi talletusten turva yhtä heikko kuin saarivaltion pankeissa. Rahat jäisivät nostamatta ja jumiin ties kuinka pitkäksi ajaksi, vaikka talletussuoja on paperilla vuoren varma. Suoja kestää pikkukupruja mutta ei kansallista pankkikriisiä. Samoin talletuksista vain murto-osa on mahdollista nostaa kahisevaksi.

Kyproksen kriisin pelottavat opetukset – Tyhmyri
Jumala suojelkoon pienten maiden kansalaisia

Emme olisi mitään ilman EU:ta – HS
Kataisen EU-visio vaatii eniten Suomelta – HS

Suomen täytyy valita oma tiensä EU:ssa – HS

Yhdentymisen ydin on politiikka, ei talous – HS

Euroopan rauhalla on vakava uhkakuva – HS