Google Analytics

Monday, April 1

1st Apr - Weekender: Linkfest II

This is the weekend's second large linkfest. The Cyprus bailout special has been updated. The Weekly Support will be updated on Tuesday as the analysts return to their desks.

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter or Facebook

News roundup – Between The Hedges
Emerging Markets Headlines – beyondbrics / FT

3 Numbers to Watch: US PMI Mfg., US ISM Mfg., US ConstructionTradingFloor
The March updates for the PMI and ISM manufacturing indices are expected to bring encouraging news for the US economic outlook. Meanwhile, US construction spending is projected to rebound in today’s February release after a sharp decline for January.

The Politics of Moral HazardBruegel
Jean Pisani-Ferry: The crisis in Cyprus has shown that the true contest in Europe is less between moral hazard and financial stability than it is between financially sensible and politically acceptable solutions. But politics in Europe is national, so what one parliament regards as the only possible solution another regards as entirely unacceptable.

Why the Euro Is Doomed in 4 StepsThe Atlantic
1. Too Tight Money 2. Too Tight Budgets 3. Too Little Trade 4. Too Much Financial Interconnection

*Euro: Requiem or Renewal?David Kotok / The Big Picture
Europe’s leaders face a fundamental question regarding the euro. Do they want a requiem, in which case all they have to do is keep doing what they are doing, or do they want a renewal, in which case behavior must change credibly, immediately and decisively?

The Tequila Crisis: The Prelude to Europe’s Economic StormTestosterone Pit
"Saving" crisis countries is mostly saving your own banks.

Accounts at EU banks are 'a joke', warn analystsThe Independent
Poor disclosure means depositors cannot tell if a bank is solvent, says credit ratings expert

“The Euro: Monetary Unity To Political Disunity?”The Market Monetarist
Friedman’s article “The Euro: Monetary Unity To Political Disunity?” from 1997 has turned out to have been particularly prolific.

Blow for ECB as wider loan rates hit southFT
Goldman Sachs’ interest rate divergence indicator shows companies in southern Europe are paying significantly higher interest rates than northern rivals

The ECB and the Austerity TrapKrugman / NYT
The EC obtuseness on fiscal policy is derived in part from the broader European obtuseness on monetary policy. Still, it’s quite a remarkable thing: we’re five years into this crisis, and key European policy makers still talk as if they were unaware of the central argument their critics have been making from day one.

Analysis: Germany sees itself as Europe's grown-up, children sullen Reuters
Buoyed by solid finances, roaring exports and low unemployment, Germany increasingly sees itself as the only grown-up in Europe, responsible for bringing wayward children into line to hold the family together.

Europe's Last Green Shoot Is WiltingZH
Credit Suisse chart on Germany

Dutch consensus for austerity starts to crackFT

Who's Next? Italy's Monte Paschi Admits Billions In Deposit OutflowsZH

Italian President Giorgio Napolitano Denies He Is Stepping Down After Phone Call From ECB PresidentMish’s
The ECB clearly does not want to take a chance that Beppe Grillio's Five Star Movement will win the next election, so the pressure is on by the ECB for a different result.

Italian president at center of storm as deadlock continuesReuters
Italy's 87-year-old President Giorgio Napolitano will face the greatest test of his career during his final weeks in office as he tries to end the standoff preventing a new government being formed more than a month after elections.

Macro Report Economic Indicators - US economy - March 2013Lighthouse (scribd)

Something's not right about this rallyHumble Student

Japan just might be set to open a new chapter – Reuters
‘Historic' is an overused word. But if the Bank of Japan meets expectations and embarks this week on a radical policy shift to crush deflation, the meeting will go down as, well, historic. 

Economists React: China Manufacturing Picks Up in March – WSJ
China March PMIs rebound, domestic demand shines – Reuters
China Manufacturing Expands at Faster Pace, PMI Gauges Show – BB
China PMI Shows Modest Improvement – Mish’s
China PMI: on the up – beyondbrics / FT

Think Cyprus is unique? Think again warns Citi's Matt KingZH

GS: Visualizing 193 Years Of Currency Regimes & CrisesZH

Currency Wars For DummiesZH
Charts from Goldman Sachs. Not only will every individual partly have to constantly monitor what everyone else is doing, but in addition, there is a constant risk of escalation into protectionist policies. Trade disputes are already on the rise. The number of WTO dispute cases in 2012 was the highest in 10 years. Finally, the extensive use of macro prudential policies and capital controls as observed in recent years poses the longer-term risk of misallocation of resources.

‘I’ve been able to be me at Goldman’FT
Jim O’Neill, retiring chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management and author of the “Bric” acronym, has no idea what he will do after he clears out his office on London’s Fleet Street in a few weeks.

Cleanest Dirty Shirt Or Just The "Most Hopeful"?ZH
Around the world, analysts and strategists are comfortable marking down expectations for British, European, Asian, and Emerging Market nations but not the good ol' USofA…The normalized forward expectations for EPS... Spot the odd one out!

Tämän takia talletussuoja on meilläkin mielikuvakuplaJan Hurri / TalSa
Jos pankit joutuisivat meillä samanlaiseen pinteeseen kuin Kyproksella, olisi talletusten turva yhtä heikko kuin saarivaltion pankeissa. Rahat jäisivät nostamatta ja jumiin ties kuinka pitkäksi ajaksi, vaikka talletussuoja on paperilla vuoren varma. Suoja kestää pikkukupruja mutta ei kansallista pankkikriisiä. Samoin talletuksista vain murto-osa on mahdollista nostaa kahisevaksi.

Kyproksen kriisin pelottavat opetuksetTyhmyri
Jumala suojelkoon pienten maiden kansalaisia

Emme olisi mitään ilman EU:taHS
Kataisen EU-visio vaatii eniten SuomeltaHS

Suomen täytyy valita oma tiensä EU:ssaHS

Yhdentymisen ydin on politiikka, ei talousHS

Euroopan rauhalla on vakava uhkakuvaHS