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Wednesday, April 24

24th Apr - EU Open: German IFO, US Durables

After Tuesday's bad Markit purchasing manager-numbers from Germany, today's IFO index is expected to nail the coffin of a slowdown in core euro country. That should allow the ECB to act next week. Of interest are also the US durable goods orders later today, though the slowdown in US is already more or less confirmed by now.

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News roundup – Between The Hedges
The 6am Cut London – alphaville / FT
Emerging Markets Headlines – beyondbrics / FT
Morning MoneyBeat Asia: Market Nicked by Fake Tweet – WSJ

Europe’s Morning MoneyBeat – WSJ

3 Numbers to Watch: DE IFO, UK CBI dist. trades, US durable goodsTradingFloor
Today’s Ifo sentiment survey for Germany will be closely watched in the wake of yesterday’s weak PMI numbers. The market will also be focused on new data for UK CBI Distributive Trades Index and US durable goods orders.

Market Preview: German Ifo indices and US durable goods data eyedTradingFloor
European markets are likely to open higher Wednesday ahead of German Ifo sentiment indices due later today which will be watched for further cues. Moreover, US durable goods orders slated later in the session will be in focus.

Danske DailyDanske Bank (pdf)
US equity markets closed higher and Asian bourses are trading with gains. Economic data continue to point to a period of slower global growth. Big rally in European peripheral bonds yesterday - EUR/CHF trades near 1.23. Bank of England announces extension to the Funding for Lending scheme.
Focus today is on German IFO and US durable goods orders.

Heikot luottamusluvut lisäävät odotuksia koronlaskusta euroalueella * Kiristystoimet vastatuulessa * Suomen työmarkkinat heikkenevät

Aamukatsaus – Tapiola (pdf)


Inside Merkel's Bet on the Euro's FutureWSJ
This account of Ms. Merkel's handling of Europe's crisis, based on interviews with 17 European policy makers, shows Cyprus's bailout flowing directly from principles that will continue to guide German leadership in Europe. In September, Ms. Merkel is expected to win a third term as chancellor. That means her agenda will dominate Europe's crisis response for years. The euro's survival hinges to a considerable extent on whether her strategy works.

Italy president set to announce choice for prime ministerReuters
Napolitano is set to announce on Wednesday his choice of prime minister to form a new government and pull the euro zone's third largest economy out of a two-month political rut.

Fed’s Balance Sheet Could Take Nearly 10 Years to NormalizeWSJ
It may take the Fed nearly a decade to bring its massive balance sheet back toward a more historically normal size, Goldman Sachs economists argue in new research.

How does inflation matter?Free exchange / The Economist
If the Fed believes that its credibility is the reason inflation has been stable during the recovery, then it will almost certainly continue to do too little and unemployment will eventually settle a natural rate substantially higher than the pre-crisis level. If, on the other hand, it determines that wage rigidities are mostly responsible for stable inflation, then the Fed must actively seek a higher inflation rate in order to increase employment growth.

KrugTron the InvincibleNoahpinion
Regularly Krugman bashes inflation hypers.

Se eilinen toimimaton yhtälöHenri Myllyniemi / US Puheenvuoro

Nyt empii komissio: menikö talouden löylykisa överiksi? Jan Hurri / TalSa

EU-komission ylin johto on ensi kerran myöntänyt, että talouden vyönkiristykset ovat ehkä menneet liian pitkälle. Talouden tosiasioita onkin vaikea kiistää. Kesken velkakriisiä toteutetut vyönkiristykset ovat olleet tehottomia tai jopa vahingollisia. Nyt on löylymestarin vuoro empiä: talouden löylykisat taisivat sittenkin mennä överiksi.