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Tuesday, April 23

23rd Apr - EU Open: China's weak PMI, Europe's ahead

China's PMI was bad. Europe still ahead - and next week we have the ECB's and the FED's meetings. Bad PMI, coupled with the quarterly lending data soon from ECB + M3 money supply on Friday should guarantee easing from the ECB - perhaps a rate cut, but at least fragmented monetary policy to increase lending in the periphery (see yesterday's thoughts)

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News roundup – Between The Hedges
The 6am Cut London – alphaville / FT
Emerging Markets Headlines – beyondbrics / FT

3 Numbers to Watch: German PMI, UK CBI industrial trends, US PMITradingFloor
Today’s flash estimate of Germany’s PMI will shape expectations for Eurozone April economic data. Meanwhile, Tuesday also brings news on the outlook for manufacturing in the UK (CBI Industrial Trends Orders) and the US (flash PMI).

Market Preview: PMIs across Europe in the spotlightTradingFloor
European markets are likely to open mostly flat Tuesday ahead of manufacturing and services PMI data across Eurozone due later today. Meanwhile, dismal Chinese manufacturing activity has fueled concerns about the global economic recovery.

Danske DailyDanske Bank (pdf)
Lower-than-expected China PMI pushes Asian equity markets lower. US equity markets closed with decent gains – S&P500 up 0.5%. Focus today is on European PMIs for April.

Kiina: Ei merkittävää piristymistä näköpiirissä * Asuntomarkkinoista yhä piristysruiske USA:n taloudelle * Euroalueen kuluttajien luottamus parani hitusen huhtikuussa

AamukatsausTapiola (pdf)

Osakemarkkinat loivassa nousussa viikon aluksi, euroalueen kuluttajaluottamus yllättäen nousussa.
Kiinasta aamulla julkaistu odotuksia heikompi teollisuuden ostopäällikköindeksi painoi markkinoiden tunnelmia. Aamupäivällä vuorossa erittäin mielenkiintoiset euroalueen ostopäällikköindeksien ennakot. Osakefutuurit nollassa, ennakoiden tasaista avausta OMX HEX:iin. 1Q13-tuloskommentti: Ixonos, Kesla, Ponsse, Vacon; tänään mm. Metso noin klo 12, Orion 12, Kone 12:30 ja StoraEnso 13.


Trust and the Future of the EuroQuantitative Ease
Jonung uses the Eurobarometer dataset as an indicator of trust. He says that the Eurobarometer ought to be a gold mine for researchers, but is rarely used because modern macro models include no role for trust

A Major Realignment Of The Markets - Three Hopes And Three FearsZH
BofAML note

BOJ Seen Deploying Price Forecasts as Tool Against Deflation BB

Press release: HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI – Markit
Flash PMI falls, points to tepid second-quarter recovery – Reuters
Recovery Falters as Manufacturing Growth Cools - BB
Asian shares, commodities rattled – Reuters
Chinese Stocks Slump as Manufacturing Slows – Mish’s
China stocks drop as PMI disappoints – beyondbrics / FT
China: Q2 opens on a weak note – Nordea
China PMI Miss Slams JPY-Carry Trades – ZH

A Visual History Of All Asset BubblesZH
By Goldman Sachs

Valvottaisiinko välillä maahanmuuttajia Pauli Vahtera / IL Blogit