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Friday, April 19

19th Apr - Weekender: Best of the Week

The ending week’s best articles picked from my blog posts. Last week’s ‘Best of’ here.

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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When Can We All Admit the Euro is an Economic Failure?Tim Duy’s Fed Watch
How high does unemployment need to rise, how much output needs to be lost, how much poverty must be endured before European policymakers realize that the policymakers see that the framework supporting the Euro politcally is an economic failure?

Europe in BriefKrugman / NYT
Tim Duy asks, when can we all admit that the euro is a failure? The answer, of course, is never. Too much history, too many declarations, too much ego is invested in the single currency for those involved ever to admit that maybe they made a mistake

Our view: Exiting the euro is a debate we must haveCyprus Mail

Protecting the eurozone at all costs is undermining IMF’s validityThe Telegraph
Of all the international organisations to have emerged from the ruins of the WWII, the IMF, which holds its spring meeting this week, can reasonably claim to be one of the more successful.

Rising deflation risks in the EurozoneResearch Ahead

German ghost of inflations past haunting European stability: PosenMacroScope / Reuters
What did the former UK Monetary Policy Committee member mean? Quite simply, that the types of structural economic changes that Germany has been pushing on the euro zone are not only destructive but also bound to fail, at least if history is any guide.

Is the academic premise for austerity in the eurozone crumbling? Not quite Open Europe
So what academics (and policymakers) really should debate is whether fiscal transfers are possible and/or desirable.  Proving or disproving R&R is neither here nor there when it comes to dealing with the eurozone crisis.

Why is this global recovery different?
The Great Recession has been followed by a ‘Not-So-Great Recovery’. Why the recovery has been weak and protracted remains a matter of debate. This column argues that one specific aspect of the current global recovery makes it different from previous ones. Over the course of past recoveries, both monetary and fiscal policies maintained an accommodative stance. In this global recovery, fiscal and monetary policies in advanced economies are pushing in opposite directions.

Schaeuble Favors ‘Liability Hierachy’ for European Bank BailoutsBB
German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said he wants to see a “liability hierarchy” where owners and creditors of banks are first in line to bail them out before governments bolster equity and the European Stability Mechanism provides international aid.

EU banking union 'could need treaty change'The Telegraph
Germany's finance minister has claimed that a banking union could require changes to EU law, potentially putting the brakes on a plan designed to prop up the euro.

Has Germany really gone off the idea of EU treaty change? (Part II) Open Europe

The non-puzzle of peripheral painFree exchange / The Economist
And so the euro area might just choose to lock up bits of euros here and there and selectively reduce their value. That is what happened to many of the euros locked up in loans to the Greek government. And it is what happened to many of the euros that were sitting in insured deposits in Cypriot banks. Who knows where it might happen next! (Nowhere, say euro-area officials, entirely unconvincingly.) The rub is that doing something like that on the scale necessary to end the crisis probably, basically, more-or-less means the end of the euro area.

More on peripheral painFree exchange / The Economist
…the main reason the single currency is at risk is that the core, and the ECB, are subjecting the union to patterns of nominal growth it simply can't be expected to endure.

How can the ECB fight fragmentation of the eurozone?Gavyn Davies / FT

Speech Draghi: Hearing before the Plenary of the European ParliamentECB

Deposit guarantees and burden-sharing, quote du jouralphaville / FT

Japan's Full Frontal: Charting Abenomics So FarZH

Inflation in Japan: mission (partially) accomplishedalphaville / FT

Posen: ‘Central bankers can’t spot bubbles, ok?’alphaville / FT

New financial forecastsNordea

FX Forecast Update April Danske Bank (pdf)
Except for the yen we have made very few major changes to our FX Forecasts compared to our previous forecast. We stick to our overall view that the euro will gain against USD, JPY and GBP over the next three months.

Did the Gold Standard Work? Economics Before and After Fiat MoneyCFA Institute

Things that make you go Hmmm... Grant Williams via John Mauldin (pdf)
34 pages of pure market talk.

Special: IMF Outlook & Kenneth-RogoffMoreLiver’s
IMF published the latest World Economic Outlook and the real surprise is the blunt advice to Europe: massive monetary easing and fiscal union are needed. Kenneth & Rogoff’s seminal paper on countries’ debt levels and how growth slows after debt/GDP passes 90% is being attacked. This is very, very important, as the paper has been the main argument of the “austerians”.

Eläkkeet, kestävyysvaje ja Himanen – miksi kukaan ei näe norsua huoneessa?Tyhmyri

Miksi hylätä oikea politiikka?Henri Myllyniemi / US Puheenvuoro
Jos kerran eurokraatit ovat niin vuorenvarmoja olleet talouskurin olevan pahalta maistuva, mutta taatusti tehoava lääke, niin eikö siitä lipsuminen ole väärää politiikkaa?

Näin Suomen kriisitaakka kasvaa taas vaivihkaaJan Hurri / TalSa
Euromaat ovat taas sopineet kriisitoimien tuntuvasta kasvattamisesta tavalla, joka maksaa miljardeja mutta jonka kustannuksia ei ole tarkoitus oivaltaa. Samaan aikaan kriisitoimien taakka siirtyy niin ikään vähin äänin yhä yksipuolisemmin euromaiden kontolle. Suomi kuuluu vaivihkaisten kriisitoimien kustantajiin.

Kyproksen tukeminen osana euroalueen talouskriisiäEduskunta
Täysistunnon pöytäkirja Välikysymys VK 3/2013 vp

IMF:n maailman rahoitusvakausraportti: vain euroalueella tökkiiHenri Myllyniemi / piksu

Euron kauhut paljastuvat liittymisestä sopineille – Romania ei anna liittymiselle aikatauluatyhmyri