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Tuesday, April 16

16th Apr - EU Open




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Roundups
News roundup – Between The Hedges
The 6am Cut London – alphaville / FT
Emerging Markets Headlines – beyondbrics / FT


MORNING BRIEFINGS
3 Numbers to Watch: German ZEW, US house starts & ind. productionTradingFloor
The outlook for Germany’s economy is expected to retreat a bit in today’s ZEW survey. Meanwhile, housing starts and industrial production are projected to post modest gains.

Market Preview: ZEW sentiment indices and EU CPI in focusTradingFloor
European markets are likely to open lower Tuesday amid worries about global economic growth prospects. Meanwhile, markets will keep an eye on ZEW sentiment indices in Europe and consumer price inflation data in the UK, EU and the US due later today.


Danske DailyDanske Bank (pdf)
Financial markets’ response to possible terrorist attack in Boston has been calm. Commodity prices markedly lower across the board on concerns about global growth. Equity markets are lower but have stabilised during Asian trade. JPY markedly stronger and commodity currencies under pressure but stabilisation overnight. Market movers today: DEM: ZEW-indicator EUR: CPI, Draghi speaks in European parliament USD: Housing starts and CPI, Fed member speeches including Yellen and Dudley. Q1 Earnings Goldman Sachs, Intel, Yahoo. IMF spring forecast


AamukatsausNordea
Maltillisia inflaatiopaineita euroalueella * Euroalueen paisuva kauppataseylijäämä varovaisen rohkaiseva * Kullan hinta pudonnut kahden pörssipäivän aikana noin 14 prosentilla



AamukatsausTapiola (pdf)
Stockmann tiedotti aamulla alkuvuoden ennakoitua syvemmästä tappiosta ja alensi samalla koko vuoden tulosohjeistusta. Koko vuoden tulos ei yllä edellisvuoden tasolle ja ennusteet laskevat selvästi. Markkinan suunta:  Osakemarkkinoiden lasku jyrkkeni, hyödykkeiden lasku painoi etenkin perusteollisuutta. Osinkoja irti osakkeesta tänään: Nurminen Logistics EUR 0.08. Osakefutuurit miinuksella, ennakoiden x avausta pörssiin. Olemme lisänneet 1Q13-tuloskalenterin sivuille 4-5, torstaina tulee mm. Nokia ja Wartsila.

MarkkinakalenteriNordnet
MarkkinakalenteriTaloussanomat


EUROPE
Are Germans really poorer than Spaniards, Italians and Greeks?voxeu.org
A recent ECB household-wealth survey was interpreted by the media as evidence that poor Germans shouldn’t have to pay for southern Europe. This column takes a look at the numbers. Whilst it’s true that median German households are poor compared to their southern European counterparts, Germany itself is wealthy. Importantly, this wealth is very unequally distributed, but the issue of unequal distribution doesn’t feature much in the press. The debate in Germany creates an inaccurate perception among less wealthy Germans that transfers are unfair.

Portugal - Back In The Penalty BoxMark Grant / ZH
Now a careful reading of what the EU is now demanding reveals an actual shortfall of about $6 billion and where Portugal is going to come up with that is a good question.

ASIA
Australian Dollar could be creating a major topPeter Brandt

GOLD
Gold and Silver – where do we go from here?Behavioral Macro

Price of Gold Takes a Flashy Fall; Other Markets FollowDealBook / NYT

Some (more) crushing news for goldbugsalphaville / FT

CME Hikes Gold, Silver Margins By 18.5% - ZH

All Abe-Inspired "Gold-In-JPY" Buyers Now UnderwaterZH

Five reasons for gold’s sudden, violent collapseQuartz

EVERYONE Should Be Thrilled By The Gold CrashBI

Gold: A game changer?TradingFloor
Gold, which has been the darling of many investors and has offered rich rewards during the past decade, is suddenly looking vulnerable. Will this latest collapse spell the end of the rally?

Did the Gold Standard Work? Economics Before and After Fiat MoneyCFA Institute

OTHER
FX Forecast Update April Danske Bank (pdf)
Except for the yen we have made very few major changes to our FX Forecasts compared to our previous forecast. We stick to our overall view that the euro will gain against USD, JPY and GBP over the next three months.

Rethinking Macro Policy II: Getting GranularIMF
This note explores how the economic thinking about macroeconomic management has evolved since the crisis began.

"Rethinking Macro Policy II: First Steps and Early Lessons"Econbrowser
That's the title of an IMF conference taking place starting tomorrow (April 16-17). The program is below, and the live webcast will be available here (and follows up on a 2011 conference on the same subject).

FINNISH
Eläkkeet, kestävyysvaje ja Himanen – miksi kukaan ei näe norsua huoneessa?Tyhmyri

Pasi Holm uskoo talouden nousevan typerästä politiikasta huolimatta – onko hän kuullut Japanista?Tyhmyri