Google Analytics

Tuesday, April 23

23rd Apr - US Open: Bad European PMI

Bad PMIs from Europe pushes bond yields to lows not seen since 2010 - ECB easing being priced in (both the ECB and the FED hold their meetings next week). Next key events US PMI today, Wed Ger IFO, index Thu Dijsselbloem grilled & UK Q1 GDP, Fri EZ M3, US Q1 GDP.

EURUSD looks to be on a way down, but might see a bounce before further losses.

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

Current specials:

Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter or Facebook

Roundups & Commentary

US Opening News And Market Re-Cap – RanSquawk
Frontrunning – ZH
Overnight: Disappointing Chinese, German PMI Data – ZH
The Lunch Wrap – alphaville / FT
Emerging N.Y. headlines – beyondbrics / FT
Daily press summary – Open Europe

Morning MoneyBeat: Trading Volume Raises Concerns  WSJ
Morning Bond Update – TradingFloor
Narrowing Spreads Fail to Lift Euro, Dollar Holds Below JPY100 – Marc to Market

The limits of austerityMacroScope / Reuters
Talk of a ECB rate cut is growing, euro zone policymakers at the G20 last week began to ponder loosening up on debt-cutting in an attempt to foster some growth and Barroso added his voice to the debate yesterday, saying the austerity drive had reached its “natural limit”.

Europeans Are Thinking the Unthinkable: That Debt Defaults Might Make SenseTime
Mainstream opinion is seriously considering the idea that everyone may end up better off if problem countries simply leave the euro zone with as little fuss as possible. And once such an exit becomes thinkable, it may well become inevitable.

Beyond their ken? Edward Hugh / Iberosphere
Spain's economic problems now form part of such a complex web of cause and effect, action and reaction, that it is getting increasingly difficult for laymen, journalists and politicians alike to get to the core of what is actually happening.

Eurozone: Guinea Pigs, PIIGS and FISHTradingFloor
Neil Staines: There are a number of themes at play within the Eurozone at the current juncture, all have different connotations for their respective national prosperities and indeed for the Eurozone as a whole. Meanwhile, growth continues to falter.

Economic Weakness Will Hit EuroMoneyBeat / WSJ
Supports for the euro are being kicked away one by one. And the single currency could soon face a more dramatic fall as the debt crisis morphs into an economic one.

Bond yields in the eurozone are hitting lows not seen since 2010:
Crisis, what crisis etc – alphaville / FT
Search for Returns Drives Fresh Troughs for Euro-Zone Yields – MoneyBeat / WSJ
Government Bonds Surge as Italian, Irish Yields Drop to Records – BB

Deficit and debt data for 2012Eurostat (pdf)

Flash PMI alphaville / FT
Depressing eurozone and German prints below.

Euro zone slump moderates but German worries appearReuters
A sharp drop in German business activity overshadowed an easing downturn in France in April, surveys showed on Tuesday, raising concerns over a further economic contraction in the euro zone.

Euro-Area April Manufacturing, Services ContractBB
Euro-area services and manufacturing output contracted for a 15th month in April as the currency bloc struggled to emerge from a recession.

European PMIs finally bad enough for ECB to act?TradingFloor
After the PMI numbers in March I wrote that the numbers were not bad enough. I think today’s numbers however fit the bill and are bad enough. These numbers might just be bad enough to push the European Central Bank into action.

Commodity weakness is likely localizedHumble Student
Barring further weakness in commodity prices and the other indicators that I mentioned, the implication is that US stock market action will be choppy because of the uncertainty caused by commodity weakness and Earnings Season, but any downside will be limited.

S&P 500′s Head-and-Shoulders Pattern Not a Problem YetMoneyBeat / WSJ

Abandon hope, all ye who look at today’s China flash PMIsalphaville / FT

The End of Growth?Satyajit Das / EconoMonitor
Driven by massive monetary stimulus from central banks, the performance of financial markets, especially stocks, have decoupled from that of a moribund real economy. Financiers assume that the strong rise in equity markets anticipates a strong economic recovery. However, there are fundamental reasons why the world may be entering a period of low or no growth. If that turns out to be the case, then the optimism of financial markets may prove premature.

BizDaily: The secrets of Goldman's successBBC (mp3)
A rare interview with the boss of the world's most successful - and controversial - investment bank, Goldman Sachs.