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Tuesday, April 2

2nd Apr - EU Open: CB Week

If you’re just back from the Easter weekend, take some time to check my earlier posts. The two Linkfests had plenty of good ones on Europe. This week’s calendar is heavy: 4 central bank meetings (Australia, Japan, England, Europe). Good review here. Italy’s politics, Cyprus news and possible bond yield changes in PIIGS are possible headline items. The tensions in Korea are of interest as well. Oh yes, the Cyprus-post has been updated.

Europe: Purchasing Manager Indices from UK and Germany. The flash PMI-numbers have been published already earlier, so no news expected. US: 4 FED speakers and Feb Factory Orders. Looks like a technical hangover day in Europe.

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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News roundup – Between The Hedges
The 6am Cut London – alphaville / FT
Emerging Markets Headlines – beyondbrics / FT

3 Numbers To Watch: DE PMI, UK PMI, US factory ordersTradingFloor
March updates on PMI manufacturing data for Germany and the UK are expected to reflect economic weakness. US factory orders, by contrast, will probably post a rebound in today's release of February data.

Market Preview: EU manufacturing PMIs and unemployment data eyedTradingFloor
European markets are likely to open lower Tuesday, in reaction to yesterday's weak US manufacturing data. Today, markets would keep an eye on a raft of manufacturing PMIs across Europe and EU unemployment data.

Danske DailyDanske Bank (pdf)
US ISM disappoints but details suggest consumer resilient nonetheless * Eurozone markets calmed down a little but still uncertainty in Cyprus and Italy alike * Focus today on eurozone PMIs and jobs ahead of ECB meeting later in the week. Market movers today: SEK: PMI EUR: manufacturing PMIs, unemployment GBP: manufacturing PMI USD: factory orders

AamukatsausNordea (pdf) 
Kiinan teollisuuden veto vankistui *  Japanin keskuspankilta räväköitä elvytystoimia? * USA:n teollisuuden luottamuksessa väliaikainen notkahdus

AamukatsausTapiola (pdf)

Ensimmäinen neljännes on nyt takana ja vuosi on alkanut osakemarkkinoilla vahvasti. Kuun vaihteen ympärillä julkistetut ostopäällikköindeksit aiheuttavat kuitenkin epävamuutta tästä eteenpäin. Kiinan ja etenkin USA:n ostopäällikköindeksistä pettymys, S&P 500 indeksi vetäytyi eilen kaikkien aikojen korkeimmasta lukemastaan. Osinkoja irti osakkeestaan tänään: Metso EUR 1.85. Makrodatoja tänään: euroalue ostopäällikköindeksi, Saksan inflaatio ja USA:n tehdastilaukset. Osakefutuurit nollassa, ennakoiden tasaista avausta pörssiin.

Analysis: Germany sees itself as Europe's grown-up, children sullenReuters
Buoyed by solid finances, roaring exports and low unemployment, Germany increasingly sees itself as the only grown-up in Europe, responsible for bringing wayward children into line to hold the family together.

German Inflation Probably Slowed to Two-Year Low in MarchBB

BOE Power Revamp Takes Effect as Regulation Role CrystallizesBB
The six-year-old financial crisis has prompted a rethink of the Bank of England’s role in the economy, and it’s already embraced its new tools, ordering banks last week to raise more capital against potential losses and to better account for risks. Further changes are afoot as officials revamp its monetary-policy mandate before the arrival of Mark Carney to replace Mervyn King as governor in July.

A shift away from RORO?Sober Look

Just Six Charts (Ahead Of Earnings)ZH
Charts from Morgan Stanley

Shut Up, Savers!The New Yorker
It’s easy to understand why savers feel like collateral damage in the Fed’s fight against recession, but too much sympathy for their plight is dangerous. Sumner points out that, in the past century, there have been only five occasions when a central bank tried to end a zero-bound-interest-rate policy. On four of those occasions, the central bank acted too soon, the economy slipped back into recession, and rates had to be cut all over again.


"Abenomics" lifts Japan business mood, households' inflation expectationsReuters
Japanese business sentiment improved in the first three months of 2013 and households' inflation expectations hit a 4-1/2 year high, central bank surveys showed, suggesting that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's determined push for monetary stimulus is thawing Japan's long-held perceptions of intractable deflation.

FX Comment: it’s the economy, stupidNordea
“You cannot make an omlette without breaking a few eggs”. That’s the European approach in keeping the euro zone alive, apparently. If there was a surprise index for political blunders…sky would be the limit.