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Tuesday, April 2

2nd Apr - US Open: Bad Europe, again

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Roundups & Commentary
Frontrunning – ZH
Overnight: Driven By Yen Carry Despite Relentless European Deterioration – ZH
The Lunch Wrap – alphaville / FT
Emerging N.Y. headlines – beyondbrics / FT
Daily press summary – Open Europe

Morning MarketBeat: Correction Timing Triggers Debate – WSJ
Morning Bond Update – TradingFloor
Much News, Little Action – Marc to Market
Morning Briefing (EU/US): Contrarian Thinking – BNY Mellon
  Is it time to challenge consensus thinking on the JPY?

France and Germany snub Cameron on EU law revieweuobserver
UK leader David Cameron's attempt to get other member states to participate in a review of EU laws has suffered an embarrassing setback.

ECB preview – still too early for Draghi to signal near-term rate cutNordea
We expect no changes in key policy rates and no new non-standard measures from the ECB at Thursday’s meeting. Lots of questions about Cyprus, but Draghi will probably not give any answers. Market reaction could be slightly negative again

Deposit insurance after Iceland and
Depositors in Eurozone banks are facing a steep learning curve on just exactly what deposit insurance means. This column points that that the precedents set in Cyprus and Iceland show that deposit insurance is only a legal commitment for small bank failures. In systemic crises, these are more political than legal commitments, so the solvency of the insuring government matters. A Eurozone-wide deposit-insurance scheme would change this.

Time for us to bank on a new Marshall PlanBruegel
The time has also come to engineer a massive investment programme for southern Europe, like a kind of new Marshall-plan. After all, every euro-member is responsible for the defunct architecture of the euro that allowed the build-up of vulnerabilities that are now causing suffering to millions of people.

Spain's Deficit Set to Soar; GDP Poised to Plunge; Job Losses Fastest in 3 Years; IIF Wants Permanent Tax HikesMish’s

Markit Manufacturing PMI’s

CEE PMI gloom: can Poland or Czech R beat the bad numbers?beyondbrics / FT

European manufacturing ebbs further in MarchReuters
Manufacturing across Europe's major economies endured another month of mostly deep decline in March, dragging down even former bright spots, surveys showed on Tuesday.

Debt to GDP Ratios: Why Not Make the Numerologists Happy?CEPR

Blogs review: The when and how of exit strategiesBruegel
Markets trembled when minutes from the December FOMC meeting revealed that members had discussed the side effects of maintaining a $85 billion pace of monthly asset purchases and the timing of its potential end. In a recent press conference, Ben Bernanke said “we may adjust the flow rate of purchases from month to month to appropriately calibrate the amount of accommodation” generating a number of discussions about the practicalities and implications of the Fed’s exit from years of quantitative easing.

Analysis: BoJ's Kuroda tested by divided boardReuters
Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda is struggling to build a consensus ahead of his first central bank board meeting this week, risking disappointing markets that expect hefty bond purchases and a radical shift in its policymaking framework.

Expectations management for the BoJalphaville / FT
That is the first time Abe has suggested the inflation target he set out four months ago may not be met within the two-year timeframe outlined by Kuroda, his choice for Bank of Japan governor. And it comes just ahead of a very pivotal BoJ meeting. (comments from Deutsche, HSBC)

*Macro update... while we were out...TradingFloor
Steen Jakobsen: A long Easter break could hide some of the damage done to markets while we were gone, but here is the 'ugly list' of news and events that took place and will reappear over the coming week.

JPY stronger ahead of BoJ. Key EURUSD resistance still in placeTradingFloor

Olivier Blanchard’s Five Lessons for Economists From the Financial CrisisWSJ