Monday, September 30
30th Sep - EU Open: Italy's fall, US's fails
The Italian government looks ready to fall. They just don't have the support they need. In Austria, the anti-euro agenda was a big winner, but not by enough - they will form a rainbow-government of all the parties except the anti-euro-parties, which will make the government weak and unfocused, just like in Finland and many other countries. But hey, anything for the euro!
US government shutdown probably happens after today. It will likely remain short, but markets might still make a big issue out of it.
US government shutdown probably happens after today. It will likely remain short, but markets might still make a big issue out of it.
Saturday, September 28
28th Sep - Weekender: Econ, Markets, Off-topic, Finnish
The good old debate on austerity is still going strong. Monetary policy
is also questioned as the move from quantitative easing toward forward guidance
is a recent trend by the US and UK.
28th Sep - Weekender: Europe & US
German election aftermath, the apparent backpedaling on the federal Europe and the looming US government shutdown
are the main drivers right now. Italy's government looks like it could fall.
ECB's meeting next week will probably not do anything new, but might give further hints on a new LTRO, due later - if still needed at that point.
The Federal Reserve’s tapering is still
featured heavily in articles, but will remain on hold probably until at least
next December. Should the shutdown happen, even next Friday's unemployment report would perhaps not be published - effectively stopping the Fed from making informed decisions, and certainly pushing the tapering-date forward.
28th Sep - Weekender: Weekly Support
Here are the links to
the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last
week's 'Support' here.
Friday, September 27
Thursday, September 26
Wednesday, September 25
Tuesday, September 24
Monday, September 23
Sunday, September 22
Saturday, September 21
21st Sep - Weekender: Weekly Support
Here are the links to
the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last
week's 'Support' here.
Friday, September 20
20th Sep - Special: Fed's Non-tapering
The latest ones are added to the end. Update 21-Sep 20:00 GMT.
Tuesday, September 17
17th Sep - US Open (having a break)
This will be my last post before a break until next weekend. Have a happy & safe FOMC!
Monday, September 16
16th Sep - US Open: Choose your poison
Things have gotten interesting. Larry is out of the race, German elections might be tighter than previously thought, FOMC is due soon with their tapering decision. And Europe is as it has been for many years - complacent.
An anonymous commentator in Finnish:
Sunday, September 15
15th Sep - Credit Guest: The Cantillon Effects
This week's credit market summary - or should I say a tome of biblical proportions - from Macroeconomics.
Saturday, September 14
14th Sep - Weekender: Weekly Support
Here are the links to
the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last
week's 'Support' here.
Friday, September 13
13th Sep - Weekender: Best of the Week
The best articles from the ending week. Some of them
on Europe are classics. Last week’s ‘Best
of’ here.
Thursday, September 12
Wednesday, September 11
Special: German Elections 2013
This post is updated as new material is published (latest ones at the top of the post)
Tuesday, September 10
Monday, September 9
9th Sep - EU Open links
Citi Credit Weekly Aug-2 2013:
…both Italian and Spanish government bonds’ haircut levels at the ECB are clinging on to the “AAA to A” category thanks only to a lone A rating (on negative outlook) from DBRS. Thanks to the ECB’s even more surprising recent increase in haircut levels for BBB governments, a one-notch downgrade from DBRS would result in a five-to-tenfold increase in margins payable.In credit, we love it when banks go out and raise equity, but that is not always an option. If even Deutsche reckons the best way to cope is by shedding €300bn in assets (presumably with a bias to better-quality ones), what does that imply for the periphery?
Saturday, September 7
7th Sep - Weekender: Weekly Support
Here are the links to
the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last
week's 'Support' here.
Friday, September 6
6th Sep - Weekender: Best of the Week
The best articles from the ending week. Some of them on Europe are classics. Last
week’s ‘Best of’ here.
Thursday, September 5
5th Sep - US Close
5th Sep - Special: ECB Watch
I will update this post during and after the event. The usual: at 1145 GMT we get the decision, and 1230 GMT president Draghi reads the pre-written statement and answers questions from the press.5th Sep: ECB, FED dates & EURUSD
Wednesday, September 4
4th Aug - US Close
Previously on MoreLiver’s:
Roundups &
Commentary
News – Between The
Hedges
Markets – Between
The Hedges
Recap – Global
Macro Trading
Daily Risk Monitor – Global
Macro Monitor
The Closer – alphaville / FT
US: McCain Sparks Stocks Best Day In A Month As Bonds Drops To 25 Month
Low – ZH
EUROPE
Draghi Gets Another Chance to Push ECB’s
Forward Guidance – WSJ
The value in vague – alphaville
/ FT
JP Morgan economist
really would like the ECB chief to use the opportunity to expand upon the word
“extended” when offering interest rate guidance.
The intergovernmental
method established by the Maastricht Treaty may well be insufficient to
overcome divisions between member states, however, the much vaunted solution of
radical federalism is even less viable. If a balance is to be restored, a
compromise must be found.
UNITED STATES
Fed exit options, table du jour – alphaville
/ FT
Which part of future
Fed tightening “is now completely up in the air”? The answer (according to
Societe Generale) is in the useful table
It's the what, not the who – Free
exchange / The Economist
Larry Summers will be
the next chairman of the Federal Reserve. It is roughly as unclear as it has
always been, which is very, what that will mean for monetary policy.
OTHER
Beware the EM central bank FX swap trend – alphaville
/ FT
If you’re an central
bank in emerging markets, struggling to keep your economy stimulated/protected
from hot money flows, using swaps or FX sales is a tempting and viable
alternative to interest rate hikes. And generally speaking, the BNP EM
strategists argue, swaps provide for a richer toolset for most central banks.
Tuesday, September 3
Monday, September 2
2nd Sep - EU Open: A big week ahead
A lot of material, but the week is also an important one. Tin hats on.
Sunday, September 1
1st Sep - Credit Guest: Misstra Know-it-all
Here is this week's cross-post from Macronomics, the sees-it-all eye on the sky.
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