Weekender: Weekly Support
(updated)
Special: Fed's Non-tapering (updated)
Special: Financial Crisis Five Years (updated)
Special: German Elections 2013 (updated)
EUROPE
Nine ways for Brussels to bend on banking union – Brussels
blog / FT
-15% to +4%: Taylor-rule interest rates for
euro area countries – Bruegel
Macroprudential policy instruments and economic
imbalances in the euro area – ECB (pdf)
Working paper by Michał Brzoza-Brzezina, Marcin Kolasa and
Krzysztof Makarski
Who do you think you’re kidding, Mr Schäuble? – The
Telegraph
The eurozone may have
avoided calamity, but all the underlying problems are still there - despite
what Germany's finance minister.
German labour reforms: Unpopular success – voxeu.org
Faced with stubbornly
high and persistent unemployment in 2003-05 the German government implemented
far-reaching labour-market reforms, the so-called Hartz reforms. This column
shows that these reforms were highly successful in bringing down the
non-cyclical component of unemployment in Germany but also argues that the
Hartz reforms created winners and losers. This explains why these reforms have
been hugely unpopular among the German public.
Danske Bank's EMU poll: Minor comeback for Yes
side – Danske
Bank (pdf)
Latvian Adventures – Krugman
/ NYT
Latvian lessons: Extreme economics – Free
exchange / The Economist
A new study asks
whether Latvia is an exception or an exemplar
ECB
ECB can claim one early victory for forward
guidance – MacroScope
/ Reuters
ECB implements loan-level reporting
requirements for asset-backed securities backed by credit card receivables – ECB
LTRO Payback Drives Repo Close to Pre-Crisis
Peak – WSJ
Draghi can save the euro again – but not alone – The
A-list / FT
Europe’s politicians
must support him with a credible and binding route to capital-raising for those
eurozone banks that are viable but remain undercapitalised.
PIIGS
Cyprus Troika Report – IMF (pdf)
Cyprus First Review – IMF
Portugal: a risk factor in the euro area – Danske
Bank (pdf)
Greece – On the edge – The
Economist
The lack of
significant outbursts of public anger over the last six years in Italy can be
explained partly by the savings cushion built by previous generations. But it
is precisely the generational divide between rentiers and producers that
threatens to drive Italy toward a Japanese-style lost decade – or two.
UNITED STATES
Nine questions about the Federal Reserve you
were too embarrassed to ask – Wonkblog
/ WP
Ezra Klein: Summers
fell because at least five Democrats on the Senate Banking Committee doubted
his bona fides as a bank regulator. But even that doesn’t get at the whole
truth. Summers really fell because those Senate Democrats -- and many other
liberals - - don’t trust the Barack Obama administration’s entire approach to
regulating Wall Street.
It’s Not Too Early to Start Worrying About
Banks Again – View
/ BB
You don’t often see
Washington regulators publicly raising alarms about banks’ accounting
practices. That’s why a speech this week by the comptroller of the currency,
Thomas Curry, deserves more attention.
The Only Campaign-Finance Law You’ll Ever Need – View
/ BB
DEBT
CEILING / DEFICIT
Everything you need to know about the deficit – Wonkblog
/ WP
Everything you need to know about why the
government might shut down – Wonkblog
/ WP
Debt Ceiling, Act III: Will the Market Notice
at All This Time? – WSJ
October's expected ugly fiscal deficit fight is
coming: BPC – TradingFloor
Steen Jakobsen: It's
time to look forward to the October debt discussion in the US which will most
likely be an ugly fight. US think tank Bipartisan Policy Center outlines the
background on the debt limits and the mechanics.
ASIA
BOJ Beat: Fed’s Decision No Surprise for One
BOJ Member – WSJ
Overcoming deflation and quantitative and
qualitative monetary easing – BIS (pdf)
Speech by Mr Haruhiko
Kuroda, Governor of the Bank of Japan, at the Kisaragi-kai Meeting, Tokyo, 20 September 2013.
After decades of
growth, China’s new leadership is facing major challenges this autumn. One of the
most important questions is the shift to growth driven by domestic demand and
consumption. At the same time, expectations of lower growth have pressed down
the value of Chinese shares.
RBI Surprises by
Raising Interest Rates – WSJ
RBI springs its own
surprise – alphaville
/ FT
Reserve Bank of India
Raises Key Rate – The
Diplomat
OTHER
Strategy: Fed just removed the biggest tail
risk for risk assets – Danske
Bank (pdf)
Metals up and oil down in a week where the FOMC
surprised most – TradingFloor
Ole Hansen: The FOMC's
'no change' to its asset purchase programme boosted growth-dependent
commodities this week, especially industrial metals, but initially crude oil
too. Precious metals saw big gains as negative sentiment and short-selling was
reversed.
EM FX Monocle – Reward and punishment – Nordea
Crisis Chronicles: Tulip Mania, 1633-37 – The
Big Picture
Our Chat With Jeremy Grantham – WSJ
He called the Internet
bubble, then the housing bubble. What alarm bell is Jeremy Grantham, the chief
investment strategist at GMO, ringing about now?
ECONOMICS
How The Economic Machine Works – ZH
Bridgewater’s Ray
Dalio – video, full pdf, summary.
The IMF on fiscal policy as macro stabiliser at
the ZLB – alphaville
/ FT
The IMF has released
to the public an earlier policy paper that includes an extended section about
the reassessment of fiscal policy as a macroeconomic stabilisation tool. The
fund’s change of mind on post-crisis fiscal policy in recent years is already
widely known
A note on currency depreciation and liquidity
traps – The Money Illusion
Policy makers have not tackled the causes of
the crisis – The
A-list / FT
Stephen King: excess
savings reflect a fundamental problem: a growing gap between financial hope and
economic reality.
MONETARY POLICY
Monetary offset in Fedspeak – The Money Illusion
The paradox of over-production in a world of QE – alphaville
/ FT
The Fed’s taper
no-show this week resulted in a plethora of commentaries and articles flagging
the risks of the world’s collective addiction to QE.
Exit-path implications for collateral chains – voxeu.org
Peter Stella: QE is
still on, but central banks are pondering exit pathways. Exit requires
vacuuming up excess reserves, winding down massive securities holdings, and
restoring normal interest rates – all without killing the recovery. This column
points to the importance of a seemingly technical issue – the impact of the
exit on the supply of high-quality collateral. This matters since collateral
plays a critical role in today’s credit and money creation processes. When
reducing excess reserves, the ‘how’ matters as much as the ‘when’ and ‘how
much’.
The ignorance of markets – Francis
Coppola / Pieria
There is considerable
debate about whether markets are efficient, and whether investors are rational.
To me it is self-evident that investors at times are anything but rational and
markets at times are anything but efficient… When it comes to monetary policy,
though, all too often we are not dealing with inefficiency or irrationalilty,
but simple ignorance.
Schools brief: Monetary policy after the crash
– Controlling interest – The
Economist
The unconventional
methods central bankers have adopted to stimulate growth in its wake
FINNISH
Matkalla
liittovaltioon – Brysselin Kone / YLE
EU:n liitovaltiokehityksestä ja sen
seurauksista Suomelle puhuu emeritusmeppi Esko Seppänen.Toimittajana on Maija
Elonheimo.
Saksan
ylivalta Euroopassa on ohimenevä ilmiö – Tyhmyri
Onko Suomi veikannut väärää hevosta?
Ykkösaamu:
"Suomi kärsii viennin tökkimisestä" – Yle Areena
Euroalueella nähdään merkkejä hauraasta
elpymisestä. Millaisessa käännekohdassa Eurooppa on ja mikä on kriisimaiden
talouskunto? Tilannetta arvioi Aalto-yliopiston professori Sixten Korkman.
Suomalaiset kartoittavat Saharan eteläpuoleisen Afrikan maatalousalueiden
maaperää. Hankkeesta kertoo professori Martti Esala Maa- ja elintarviketalouden
tutkimuskeskuksesta. Mitä hyötyä tai haittaa on lämpimästä syksystä?
Yliopistotutkija Kari Taulavuori Oulun yliopistosta vastaa. Torstain kolumnistina
Marketta Mattila. Juontajana Päivi Neitiniemi.
Ykkösaamu:
Talouden Suomi-Ruotsi-maaottelu – Yle Areena
Ruotsi aikoo laskea tuloveroja, Suomi
yhteisöveroa. Ruotsin Konjunkturinstitutetin entinen tutkimusosaston johtaja
Juhana Vartiainen analysoi naapurimaiden talouspolitiikan eroja. Terveyden ja
hyvinvoinnin laitoksen pääjohtaja Pekka Puska kommentoi väitettä, että yleiset
terveystarkastukset ovat turhia. Politiikan viikko -katsaus käsittelee eduskunnan
juhlaistuntoa. Sari Taussi kolumnoi Kiinasta ja työstä
oikeusvaltioperiaatteiden edistämiseksi.
Ruotsi
elvyttää ja Suomi sopeuttaa - "ei herätty väestön ikääntymiseen" – Verkkouutiset
Mikä
maksaa?: Talousennusteet: miksi niitä tarvitaan ja mihin? – Yle Areena
Voiko talouden tulevaisuutta ennustaa? Miksi
eri tahot ennustavat eri tavoilla? Kuinka hyvin ennusteet pitävät paikkansa?
Näistä teemoista keskustelemassa johtaja Seija ilmakunnas Palkansaajien
tutkimuslaitoksesta ja pääekonomisti Pasi Kuoppamäki Danske Bankista. Ääneen
pääsee myös finanssineuvos Mika Kuismanen valtionvarainministeriöstä.
Työ – Saloniemi
Viisi
vuotta kriisiä – näin näkyy arjessasi – TalSa
Työpaikoista käydään kovaa kilpailua,
terveyskeskuksessa jonot pitenevät, perinteinen säästäminen ei kannata, mutta
vanhojen velkojen hoito on halpaa. Tuntuuko tutulta?
”Kaikki
työ on arvokasta” – Jukka
Hankamäki
SP:n
Liikasen julkinen kuuleminen eduskunnan talousvaliokunnalle – Piksu
Euroalueella merkkejä paremmasta; Suomi
tarvitsee rakenteellisia uudistuksia
Kaikkien
aikojen veronkiertotutkinta kuivui kokoon - varoja piilottaneet suomalaiset
jäävät ilman rikosseuraamuksia – YLE
Saksan tiedustelupalvelun kautta paljastuneet
suomalaisten verorötökset eivät etene esitutkintaan. Korkeimman oikeuden avaama
porsaanreikä on heinäkuusta lähtien estänyt verottajaa ilmoittamasta
veropetoksia poliisille.