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Sunday, September 22

22nd Sep - Weekender: Linkfest

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Nine ways for Brussels to bend on banking unionBrussels blog / FT

-15% to +4%: Taylor-rule interest rates for euro area countriesBruegel

Macroprudential policy instruments and economic imbalances in the euro areaECB (pdf)
Working paper  by Michał Brzoza-Brzezina, Marcin Kolasa and Krzysztof Makarski

Who do you think you’re kidding, Mr Schäuble?The Telegraph
The eurozone may have avoided calamity, but all the underlying problems are still there - despite what Germany's finance minister.

German labour reforms: Unpopular
Faced with stubbornly high and persistent unemployment in 2003-05 the German government implemented far-reaching labour-market reforms, the so-called Hartz reforms. This column shows that these reforms were highly successful in bringing down the non-cyclical component of unemployment in Germany but also argues that the Hartz reforms created winners and losers. This explains why these reforms have been hugely unpopular among the German public.

Danske Bank's EMU poll: Minor comeback for Yes sideDanske Bank (pdf)

Latvian AdventuresKrugman / NYT
Latvian lessons: Extreme economicsFree exchange / The Economist
A new study asks whether Latvia is an exception or an exemplar

ECB can claim one early victory for forward guidanceMacroScope / Reuters

ECB implements loan-level reporting requirements for asset-backed securities backed by credit card receivablesECB

LTRO Payback Drives Repo Close to Pre-Crisis PeakWSJ

Draghi can save the euro again – but not aloneThe A-list / FT
Europe’s politicians must support him with a credible and binding route to capital-raising for those eurozone banks that are viable but remain undercapitalised.

Cyprus Troika ReportIMF (pdf)
Cyprus First ReviewIMF
Troika on Cyprus: Doing What it Should, and in Trouble AnywayWSJ

Portugal: a risk factor in the euro areaDanske Bank (pdf)

Greece – On the edgeThe Economist

Europe’s Japan?Project Syndicate
The lack of significant outbursts of public anger over the last six years in Italy can be explained partly by the savings cushion built by previous generations. But it is precisely the generational divide between rentiers and producers that threatens to drive Italy toward a Japanese-style lost decade – or two.

Nine questions about the Federal Reserve you were too embarrassed to askWonkblog / WP

Summers Battle Was Front in War Over Wall StreetView / BB
Ezra Klein: Summers fell because at least five Democrats on the Senate Banking Committee doubted his bona fides as a bank regulator. But even that doesn’t get at the whole truth. Summers really fell because those Senate Democrats -- and many other liberals - - don’t trust the Barack Obama administration’s entire approach to regulating Wall Street.

It’s Not Too Early to Start Worrying About Banks AgainView / BB
You don’t often see Washington regulators publicly raising alarms about banks’ accounting practices. That’s why a speech this week by the comptroller of the currency, Thomas Curry, deserves more attention.

The Only Campaign-Finance Law You’ll Ever NeedView / BB

Everything you need to know about the deficitWonkblog / WP

Everything you need to know about why the government might shut downWonkblog / WP

Debt Ceiling, Act III: Will the Market Notice at All This Time?WSJ

October's expected ugly fiscal deficit fight is coming: BPCTradingFloor
Steen Jakobsen: It's time to look forward to the October debt discussion in the US which will most likely be an ugly fight. US think tank Bipartisan Policy Center outlines the background on the debt limits and the mechanics.

BOJ Beat: Fed’s Decision No Surprise for One BOJ MemberWSJ

Overcoming deflation and quantitative and qualitative monetary easingBIS (pdf)
Speech by Mr Haruhiko Kuroda, Governor of the Bank of Japan, at the Kisaragi-kai Meeting, Tokyo, 20 September 2013.

China update — New leadership tackling old problemHandelsbanken (pdf)
After decades of growth, China’s new leadership is facing major challenges this autumn. One of the most important questions is the shift to growth driven by domestic demand and consumption. At the same time, expectations of lower growth have pressed down the value of Chinese shares.

RBI Surprises by Raising Interest Rates – WSJ
RBI springs its own surprise – alphaville / FT
Rajan Returns India to Inflation Mission With Rate Hike – WSJ
Reserve Bank of India Raises Key Rate – The Diplomat

Strategy: Fed just removed the biggest tail risk for risk assetsDanske Bank (pdf)

Metals up and oil down in a week where the FOMC surprised mostTradingFloor
Ole Hansen: The FOMC's 'no change' to its asset purchase programme boosted growth-dependent commodities this week, especially industrial metals, but initially crude oil too. Precious metals saw big gains as negative sentiment and short-selling was reversed.

EM FX Monocle – Reward and punishmentNordea

Crisis Chronicles: Tulip Mania, 1633-37The Big Picture

Our Chat With Jeremy GranthamWSJ
He called the Internet bubble, then the housing bubble. What alarm bell is Jeremy Grantham, the chief investment strategist at GMO, ringing about now?

How The Economic Machine WorksZH
Bridgewater’s Ray Dalio – video, full pdf, summary.

The IMF on fiscal policy as macro stabiliser at the ZLBalphaville / FT
The IMF has released to the public an earlier policy paper that includes an extended section about the reassessment of fiscal policy as a macroeconomic stabilisation tool. The fund’s change of mind on post-crisis fiscal policy in recent years is already widely known

A note on currency depreciation and liquidity trapsThe Money Illusion

Policy makers have not tackled the causes of the crisisThe A-list / FT
Stephen King: excess savings reflect a fundamental problem: a growing gap between financial hope and economic reality.

Monetary offset in FedspeakThe Money Illusion

The paradox of over-production in a world of QEalphaville / FT
The Fed’s taper no-show this week resulted in a plethora of commentaries and articles flagging the risks of the world’s collective addiction to QE.

Exit-path implications for collateral
Peter Stella: QE is still on, but central banks are pondering exit pathways. Exit requires vacuuming up excess reserves, winding down massive securities holdings, and restoring normal interest rates – all without killing the recovery. This column points to the importance of a seemingly technical issue – the impact of the exit on the supply of high-quality collateral. This matters since collateral plays a critical role in today’s credit and money creation processes. When reducing excess reserves, the ‘how’ matters as much as the ‘when’ and ‘how much’.

The ignorance of marketsFrancis Coppola / Pieria
There is considerable debate about whether markets are efficient, and whether investors are rational. To me it is self-evident that investors at times are anything but rational and markets at times are anything but efficient… When it comes to monetary policy, though, all too often we are not dealing with inefficiency or irrationalilty, but simple ignorance.

Schools brief: Monetary policy after the crash – Controlling interestThe Economist
The unconventional methods central bankers have adopted to stimulate growth in its wake

Matkalla liittovaltioonBrysselin Kone / YLE
EU:n liitovaltiokehityksestä ja sen seurauksista Suomelle puhuu emeritusmeppi Esko Seppänen.Toimittajana on Maija Elonheimo.

Saksan ylivalta Euroopassa on ohimenevä ilmiöTyhmyri
Onko Suomi veikannut väärää hevosta?

Ykkösaamu: "Suomi kärsii viennin tökkimisestä"Yle Areena
Euroalueella nähdään merkkejä hauraasta elpymisestä. Millaisessa käännekohdassa Eurooppa on ja mikä on kriisimaiden talouskunto? Tilannetta arvioi Aalto-yliopiston professori Sixten Korkman. Suomalaiset kartoittavat Saharan eteläpuoleisen Afrikan maatalousalueiden maaperää. Hankkeesta kertoo professori Martti Esala Maa- ja elintarviketalouden tutkimuskeskuksesta. Mitä hyötyä tai haittaa on lämpimästä syksystä? Yliopistotutkija Kari Taulavuori Oulun yliopistosta vastaa. Torstain kolumnistina Marketta Mattila. Juontajana Päivi Neitiniemi.

Ykkösaamu: Talouden Suomi-Ruotsi-maaotteluYle Areena
Ruotsi aikoo laskea tuloveroja, Suomi yhteisöveroa. Ruotsin Konjunkturinstitutetin entinen tutkimusosaston johtaja Juhana Vartiainen analysoi naapurimaiden talouspolitiikan eroja. Terveyden ja hyvinvoinnin laitoksen pääjohtaja Pekka Puska kommentoi väitettä, että yleiset terveystarkastukset ovat turhia. Politiikan viikko -katsaus käsittelee eduskunnan juhlaistuntoa. Sari Taussi kolumnoi Kiinasta ja työstä oikeusvaltioperiaatteiden edistämiseksi.

Ruotsi elvyttää ja Suomi sopeuttaa - "ei herätty väestön ikääntymiseen"Verkkouutiset

Mikä maksaa?: Talousennusteet: miksi niitä tarvitaan ja mihin?Yle Areena
Voiko talouden tulevaisuutta ennustaa? Miksi eri tahot ennustavat eri tavoilla? Kuinka hyvin ennusteet pitävät paikkansa? Näistä teemoista keskustelemassa johtaja Seija ilmakunnas Palkansaajien tutkimuslaitoksesta ja pääekonomisti Pasi Kuoppamäki Danske Bankista. Ääneen pääsee myös finanssineuvos Mika Kuismanen valtionvarainministeriöstä.


Viisi vuotta kriisiä – näin näkyy arjessasiTalSa
Työpaikoista käydään kovaa kilpailua, terveyskeskuksessa jonot pitenevät, perinteinen säästäminen ei kannata, mutta vanhojen velkojen hoito on halpaa. Tuntuuko tutulta?

”Kaikki työ on arvokasta”Jukka Hankamäki

SP:n Liikasen julkinen kuuleminen eduskunnan talousvaliokunnallePiksu
Euroalueella merkkejä paremmasta; Suomi tarvitsee rakenteellisia uudistuksia

Kaikkien aikojen veronkiertotutkinta kuivui kokoon - varoja piilottaneet suomalaiset jäävät ilman rikosseuraamuksiaYLE
Saksan tiedustelupalvelun kautta paljastuneet suomalaisten verorötökset eivät etene esitutkintaan. Korkeimman oikeuden avaama porsaanreikä on heinäkuusta lähtien estänyt verottajaa ilmoittamasta veropetoksia poliisille.

Puheenaihe: Suomi hylkäsi johtajuudenAL