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Monday, September 2

2nd Sep - EU Open: A big week ahead

A lot of material, but the week is also an important one. Tin hats on.

Previously on MoreLiver’s:
Weekender: Weekly Support (weekly reports)

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The 6am Cut London – alphaville / FT
Asia Morning MoneyBeat: U.S. Stocks End August on a Dour Note – WSJ
Europe Morning MoneyBeat: Gains Ahead on Likely Syria DelayWSJ

3 Numbers to Watch: EU, UK PMI to give recovery pointers; USDJPYTradingFloor
Sceptics remain but updates on Eurozone and UK manufacturing PMIs are key numbers to watch today as indicators of Europe's nascent recovery. Meanwhile, keep a close eye on USDJPY ahead of Wednesday’s Bank of Japan announcement.

Market Preview: Focus on European PMI data as US takes holiday TradingFloor
European markets are likely to open higher Monday over the possible delay of a US military attack on Syria. With Chinese official manufacturing data surprising on the upside, traders await today’s manufacturing PMIs in Europe for further direction.

Danske DailyDanske Bank (pdf)
The conflict in Syria continues to be the main focus. In the euro area we will get final manufacturing PMIs today. ECB executive board member Coeure speaks in Berlin at the conference ‘ECB and its OMT programme’ ahead of the ECB meeting later this week US markets are close

Market comment: Central banks and NFP in the spotlight this week Nordea
US Treasury yields rise for fourth month in a row * Mixed results from Friday´s data releases * Coeure says ECB will make sure money market rates remain at reasonable levels * Obama seeks approval in Congress for possible strike on Syria * Tax hike should mean extra stimulus needed according to Japan government advisors * Merkel faced Steinbrück in only TV debate before German election * Central banks and NFP in focus this week * Issuance from Spain on this week´s agenda

Fedillä sormi liipaisimella * Öljyrallissa vielä mutkia edessä * Kiinasta positiivisia PMI-lukuja

Aamukatsaus – Tapiola (pdf)


How much Europe is too much Europe? Reuters
In the dark days of Europe's debt crisis in 2012, when it seemed Greece might be forced out of the euro and the single currency could implode, leaders believed "more Europe" was the only answer.

Euro zone morale climbs in shadow of record unemploymentReuters
Optimism in the euro zone's economy improved sharply in August but stubbornly high unemployment, especially in the bloc's weaker countries, highlighted the fissure separating the recovering north from the struggling south.

ECB Preview: Keep the powder dryDanske Bank (pdf)
There are fewer arguments for a rate cut today than a month ago. The economy is improving faster than the ECB expected, the decline in excess liquidity has slowed and market rates have come down slightly.

German election fever: the TV debateThe World / FT

Great Graphic: Expectations for Fed Tapering TimingMarc to Market

Update: Charts to Track Timing for QE3 TaperingCalculated Risk
With the upward revision to Q2 GDP, and the low expectations for inflation (significantly below target), it now looks the year-end data might be "broadly consistent" with the June FOMC projections. 

Chart o’ the Day: Significance of 90% Down DaysThe Reformed Broker
While all of these instances occurred near the lows for those prior corrections, it is important to note that each  time the initial instance was not THE LOW for the correction.

Retail momentum stallsHumble Student
Despite the better than expected consumer confidence numbers, we are seeing signs that the momentum of the retailing stocks are stalling out.

Chart: QE3 is ineffective in growing credit in the USSober Look

IMF Warns China On Capital FlightForbes
The bailout kings said once China opens its capital account, capital could fly out of the country faster than the government imagines.

China: PMIs suggest moderate recoveryDanske Bank (pdf)

More Signs Japan Investment on TurnWSJ
Capital expenditure data by Japanese companies signaled the economy probably did better in the April-June quarter than official figures suggested two weeks ago – another positive development that could swing the debate over whether to hike the nation’s sales tax.

September Begins with a BangMarc to Market
In the week ahead no fewer than six G10 central banks meet and a host of important economic data is slated for release. The US employment data at the end of the week is seen by many as critical for the one major central bank that is not meeting, the Federal Reserve.

FX Comment: curve fightersNordea
September-October is historically an eventful period for the Markets. Already now starting with the Middle East…but still ahead, the next Fed chairman announcement, FOMC meeting on September 18th, German election on the 22nd, the US debt ceiling debate…- no lack of political events to generate some volatility! Seasonally higher trading volumes will only add steam

Blogs review: The global dimension of taperingBruegel
Emerging markets have had a tough summer, as central banks of advanced economies have made clear that the normalization of monetary policy was underway. Although this development has generated a renewed interest in the international transmission of monetary policy and was a central part of the discussion at Jackson Hole, it remains unclear whether this sudden reversal in capital flows will remain mostly benign or will deteriorate into a full-fledged emerging market crisis.

Global investors boost euro zone assets, cut Asia stocks Reuters
Global investors lifted their holdings of euro zone assets to the highest in more than a year this month while trimming exposure to Asian equities during a rout of emerging market assets, Reuters polls showed.

Asset Outperformance vs UnderperformanceThe Short Side of the Long

Charlie Munger: Lessons From an Investing GiantWSJ
Warren Buffett's right-hand man is brilliant in his own right.

What Trade Hurts the Most People?Above the Market
I am reasonably confident that another major correction is coming before the end of this secular bear market, but it needn’t come immediately or even all that soon.  So beware the market that continues to rally.  It’s the trade that hurts the most people.

Talouspolitiikkaa for the dummies!Juha Juoni / US Puheenvuoro

Miksi päättäminen on niin vaikeata?Soininvaara

Lipponen on ykkönenHS
Asiantuntijaraati pani lähihistorian hallitukset paremmuusjärjestykseen.

Pääkirjoitus: Saksalla on käsi käsijarrulla Euroopan velkakriisin jälkihoidossaHS

Pääkirjoitus: Kunnilla on edessä suuri mutta tuntematon urakkaHS

Pääkirjoitus: Tuloratkaisu oli valmiiksi hyvin pohjustettuHS

Kuntaliitto: Valtion purettava kuntien velvoitteita ja palautettava itsemääräämisoikeuttaPiksu

Suomen keskusjärjestöt päässeet yhteisymmärrykseen ripeistä kilpailukykyä vahvistavista toimistaPiksu

Korkojen nousu paljastaa: olemme velkaloukussaJan Hurri / TalSa
Suomen velkataakka on vuosikaudet paisunut huimasti talouskasvua nopeammin, ja velkaa on nyt tuplaten se määrä kuin vuosikymmen sitten. Enää keinotekoisen matala korkotaso peittelee karua tosiasiaa: Suomi on velkaloukussa. Totuus paljastuu, kun korot taas nousevat – ja maksuvaikeudet alkavat.

Sailas: Rakenneuudistuspäätös ei pelasta Suomea kestävyysvajeeltaYLE
Entisen valtiosihteerin Raimo Sailaksen mukaan hallituksen eilinen päätös tarvitsee lisää sisältöä. Epäselvää on esimerkiksi se, mitä kuntien velvoitteita on tarkoitus vähentää miljardisäästöjen aikaansaamiseksi.

Totuuden kestävyysvajePerttu Hillman / IL

Rakenneuudistukset?Paavo Häikiö

Minne katosi satanen? Työtön saakin oikeuden ansaita 300 euroa kuussaYLE

Kilpailukyky tuli, ostovoima meni?YLE

Valtiovarainministeriö sai talouspolitiikan koordinaattorinYLE

Kunnat ja kulta-aarreSaloniemi