A lot of material, but the week is also an important one. Tin hats on.
Previously on MoreLiver’s:
Weekender: Weekly Support (weekly reports)
Roundups
The 6am Cut London – alphaville
/ FT
Europe Morning
MoneyBeat: Gains Ahead on Likely Syria Delay – WSJ
MORNING BRIEFINGS
Sceptics remain but
updates on Eurozone and UK manufacturing PMIs are key numbers to watch
today as indicators of Europe's nascent recovery. Meanwhile, keep a close
eye on USDJPY ahead of Wednesday’s Bank of Japan announcement.
European markets are
likely to open higher Monday over the possible delay of a US military attack on Syria. With Chinese official manufacturing data
surprising on the upside, traders await today’s manufacturing PMIs in Europe for further direction.
Danske Daily – Danske
Bank (pdf)
The conflict in
Syria continues to be the main focus. In the euro area we will get final
manufacturing PMIs today. ECB executive board member Coeure speaks in Berlin at
the conference ‘ECB and its OMT programme’ ahead of the ECB meeting later this
week US markets are close
US Treasury
yields rise for fourth month in a row * Mixed results from Friday´s data
releases * Coeure says ECB will make sure money market rates remain at
reasonable levels * Obama seeks approval in Congress for possible strike on
Syria * Tax hike should mean extra stimulus needed according to Japan
government advisors * Merkel faced Steinbrück in only TV debate before German
election * Central banks and NFP in focus this week * Issuance from Spain on
this week´s agenda
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Fedillä sormi
liipaisimella * Öljyrallissa vielä mutkia edessä * Kiinasta positiivisia
PMI-lukuja
Aamukatsaus – Tapiola (pdf)
EUROPE
In the dark days of
Europe's debt crisis in 2012, when it seemed Greece might be forced out of the
euro and the single currency could implode, leaders believed "more
Europe" was the only answer.
Euro zone morale climbs in shadow of record
unemployment – Reuters
Optimism in the euro
zone's economy improved sharply in August but stubbornly high unemployment,
especially in the bloc's weaker countries, highlighted the fissure separating
the recovering north from the struggling south.
ECB Preview: Keep the powder dry – Danske
Bank (pdf)
There are fewer
arguments for a rate cut today than a month ago. The economy is improving
faster than the ECB expected, the decline in excess liquidity has slowed and
market rates have come down slightly.
German election fever: the TV debate – The
World / FT
UNITED STATES
Great Graphic:
Expectations for Fed Tapering Timing – Marc
to Market
Update: Charts to Track Timing for QE3 Tapering – Calculated
Risk
With the upward
revision to Q2 GDP, and the low expectations for inflation (significantly below
target), it now looks the year-end data might be "broadly consistent"
with the June FOMC projections.
Chart o’ the Day: Significance of 90% Down Days – The
Reformed Broker
While all of these
instances occurred near the lows for those prior corrections, it is important
to note that each time the initial
instance was not THE LOW for the correction.
Retail momentum
stalls
– Humble
Student
Despite the better than expected consumer confidence numbers, we are
seeing signs that the momentum of the retailing stocks are stalling out.
ASIA
The bailout kings said once China opens its capital account, capital
could fly out of the country faster than the government imagines.
Capital expenditure
data by Japanese companies signaled the economy probably did better in the
April-June quarter than official figures suggested two weeks ago – another
positive development that could swing the debate over whether to hike the
nation’s sales tax.
OTHER
September Begins with a Bang – Marc
to Market
In the week ahead no
fewer than six G10 central banks meet and a host of important economic data is
slated for release. The US employment data at the end of the week is seen by
many as critical for the one major central bank that is not meeting, the
Federal Reserve.
FX Comment: curve fighters – Nordea
September-October is
historically an eventful period for the Markets. Already now starting with the
Middle East…but still ahead, the next Fed chairman announcement, FOMC meeting
on September 18th, German election on the 22nd, the US debt ceiling debate…- no
lack of political events to generate some volatility! Seasonally higher trading
volumes will only add steam
Blogs review: The global dimension of tapering – Bruegel
Emerging markets have
had a tough summer, as central banks of advanced economies have made clear that
the normalization of monetary policy was underway. Although this development
has generated a renewed interest in the international transmission of monetary
policy and was a central part of the discussion at Jackson Hole, it remains unclear whether this sudden
reversal in capital flows will remain mostly benign or will deteriorate into a
full-fledged emerging market crisis.
Global investors
lifted their holdings of euro zone assets to the highest in more than a year
this month while trimming exposure to Asian equities during a rout of emerging
market assets, Reuters polls showed.
Asset Outperformance vs Underperformance – The
Short Side of the Long
Charlie Munger:
Lessons From an Investing Giant – WSJ
Warren Buffett's right-hand man is brilliant in his own right.
What Trade Hurts the
Most People? – Above
the Market
I am reasonably confident that another major correction is coming before
the end of this secular bear market, but it needn’t come immediately or even
all that soon. So beware the market that
continues to rally. It’s the trade that
hurts the most people.
FINNISH
Talouspolitiikkaa for the dummies! – Juha
Juoni / US Puheenvuoro
Miksi päättäminen on niin vaikeata? – Soininvaara
Lipponen on ykkönen – HS
Asiantuntijaraati
pani lähihistorian hallitukset paremmuusjärjestykseen.
Pääkirjoitus: Saksalla on käsi käsijarrulla
Euroopan velkakriisin jälkihoidossa – HS
Pääkirjoitus: Kunnilla on edessä suuri mutta
tuntematon urakka – HS
Pääkirjoitus: Tuloratkaisu oli valmiiksi
hyvin pohjustettu – HS
Kuntaliitto: Valtion purettava kuntien
velvoitteita ja palautettava itsemääräämisoikeutta – Piksu
Suomen keskusjärjestöt päässeet
yhteisymmärrykseen ripeistä kilpailukykyä vahvistavista toimista – Piksu
Korkojen nousu paljastaa: olemme
velkaloukussa – Jan
Hurri / TalSa
Suomen velkataakka
on vuosikaudet paisunut huimasti talouskasvua nopeammin, ja velkaa on nyt
tuplaten se määrä kuin vuosikymmen sitten. Enää keinotekoisen matala korkotaso
peittelee karua tosiasiaa: Suomi on velkaloukussa. Totuus paljastuu, kun korot
taas nousevat – ja maksuvaikeudet alkavat.
Sailas: Rakenneuudistuspäätös ei pelasta
Suomea kestävyysvajeelta – YLE
Entisen
valtiosihteerin Raimo Sailaksen mukaan hallituksen eilinen päätös tarvitsee
lisää sisältöä. Epäselvää on esimerkiksi se, mitä kuntien velvoitteita on
tarkoitus vähentää miljardisäästöjen aikaansaamiseksi.
Totuuden kestävyysvaje – Perttu
Hillman / IL
Rakenneuudistukset? – Paavo
Häikiö
Minne
katosi satanen? Työtön saakin oikeuden ansaita 300 euroa kuussa – YLE
Kilpailukyky
tuli, ostovoima meni? – YLE
Valtiovarainministeriö
sai talouspolitiikan koordinaattorin – YLE
Kunnat
ja kulta-aarre – Saloniemi