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Wednesday, September 11

Special: German Elections 2013

This post is updated as new material is published (latest ones at the top of the post)

Opinion pollsWikipedia

Sonntagsfrage BundestagswahlWahlrecht
German election polling trendPollytix
German federal election, 2013Wikipedia

How Germans would vote todaySpiegel

Press coverage

Merkel’s anti-mandateReuters
The main parties deliberately avoided committing themselves to clear policies during the campaign, so now the coalition negotiations will have to agree on the big issues. This could take some time. It took over 60 days for the grand coalition in 2005 and 25 days for the coalition with the liberals in 2009.

German election — spot the Berlin WallThe World / FT

Germany: ‘A day of resignations’Presseurop

Merkel’s triumph creates coalition puzzleNordea (pdf)
“Merkel’s law” seems to be that her junior partner suffers a lot – ask SPD and FDP. Nevertherless, we expect the Social Democrats to enter a Grand Coalition again (summary).

Merkel’s Victory Is Stunning and DepressingView / BB
There will be no sudden change in her policy on the euro crisis, and you have to hope that she holds onto the finance ministry in her next coalition government. Given that I think Merkel’s euro crisis policies are misguided and involve far more risk to Europe and the German taxpayer than they have been led to believe, that may seem counterintuitive.

Merkel Killer Embrace Leaves SPD Wary of Coalition TalksBB
At the end of Angela Merkel’s first term, her Social Democratic coalition partner recorded its worst election result since World War II… The SPD, the second-place finishers in the Sept. 22 vote, may be reluctant to try again

Merkelism Is a Harder Sell Outside GermanyView / BB
The main drama of the last weeks was the slump of the small Free Democratic Party, which had been part of the governing coalition…The other drama -- which provided the cliffhanger -- was the rise of the anti-euro Alternative for Germany,

As focus shifts to German coalition negotiations, who are the key players to watch?Open Europe 

Germany: More indispensable than everPresseurop

Merkel: No need to change Europe policyeuobserver

Europe's Future after Germany ElectionEconmatters
Germany's economy relies on the free trade zone and on exports, which the rest of Europe can buy only if it can afford to do so. Thus any government in Berlin will continue to aid countries afflicted by the European crisis -- even at the risk of growing domestic opposition.

[Analysis] Why did Germans vote for Merkel, again?euobserver
Germans prefer 'Mutti' Merkel because they trust she can protect their prosperity. But the flipside of this fear of losing money is the rise of an anti-euro party, set to enter the European Parliament next year.

Germany After Merkel’s Election VictoryEconoMonitor
After Chancellor Merkel’s expected victory in the federal elections, Germany will continue to drive the regional economy, but slower growth will go hand in hand with rising income polarization. Nor is Germany any longer immune to the decline of the Eurozone.

Merkel has ‘Europe at her feet’Presseurop

So Germany, What Now?WSJ
Here’s what the analysts think of the likely permutations now

Pyrrhic victory for Angela MerkelDB Research
Building a coalition will be tough as the CDU/CSU will be loath to give concessions – but potential coalition partners who have a theoretical outside option will demand high concessions. However, neither a minority government nor new elections are realistic alternatives.

The top 10 'spiciest' moments of the German electionsOpen Europe

 ‘Angela Merkel’s greatest triumph’Presseurop

Merkel may be the Queen of Germany, but she's missing a Prince...TradingFloor
Steen Jakobsen: The German election was a victory for Merkel, but probably a loss for reforms both in Germany and in Europe. Merkel is in dire need of a coalition partner, but the SPD is reluctant after the last venture left a bitter taste. Can she find her prince?

The meaning of Merkel’s victoryMarginal Revolution
German voters very much like low inflation and no Eurobonds, or in other words I call this the primacy of public choice and political economy over macroeconomics. 

‘The euro-chancellor’Presseurop

Merkel’s big win: the view from EuropeBrussels blog / FT
The differing views reflect increasingly polarising opinions towards Merkel across the eurozone.

BizDaily: German electionsBBC (mp3)
The coalition which results from Angela Merkel's landslide victory will shape the country's economic policy, with huge implications for the rest of Europe. Business Daily, with Simon Jack, comes from Frankfurt, the financial heart of Germany, where we talk to Jens Ulbrich the Chief Economist of the Bundesbank and Stefan Schneider of Deutche Bank about where Germany and, indeed Europe, goes from here.

So Germany, What Now?WSJ
Just five seats. That’s how far short of an outright majority incumbent German Chancellor Angela Merkel is following elections yesterday. That now leaves her searching for a coalition partner.

Bailed-Out Nations Get Another Four Years of MerkelBB
Any concessions now are likely to come on the margins: a little more money for Greece here, a little less austerity there, without altering her determination at most to drip-feed aid to countries that embrace tight budgets, wage restraint and export-oriented industry.

Germans Embrace Merkel With Mandate Forged in Europe CrisisBB

German ‘King Makers’ FDP Face Parliamentary Exile After 64 YearsBB

Merkel begins search for new coalition allyThe Telegraph
Angela Merkel is preparing to negotiate a new coalition for her third term as German Chancellor after falling agonisingly short of an overall majority in the Bundestag.

Merkel’s challengesThe Telegraph
As she starts her third term, like Margaret Thatcher before her, Angela Merkel has the future of Europe in her hands

Merkel Seen Neglecting German Needs With Focus on EuroBB
Angela Merkel’s third term, after her overwhelming election victory yesterday, is likely to force a decision on where to spend political capital: on Europe’s ills or Germany’s.

Merkel must reach out to leftist rivals after poll triumphReuters
German Chancellor Angela Merkel faces the daunting prospect of persuading her center-left rivals to keep her in power after her conservatives notched up their best election result in more than two decades but fell short of an absolute majority.

World From Berlin: Triumph Confirms 'Era of Merkelism'Spiegel
Angela Merkel is at the zenith of her power. Her historic election win on Sunday reflects how deeply Germans appreciate her no-nonsense, frugal Hausfrau style of governing, say editorials. But she now needs to address domestic reforms to secure her legacy.

Grand Coalition? Social Dems Deflect Talk of Merkel AllianceSpiegel
Is the scene now set for another grand coalition? The leadership of the SPD are putting the brakes on speculation over a potential pairing with Merkel. Following its weak performance, the party wants to avoid internal disputes over what would be an unpopular alliance.

Merkel’s triumph creates coalition puzzleNordea (pdf)
It was a huge vote of confidence for Angela Merkel, so huge actually that she lost her only strategic coalition partner. “Merkel’s law” seems to be that her junior partner suffers a lot – ask SPD and FDP. Nevertherless, we expect the Social Democrats to enter a Grand Coalition again…As to euro-crisis management, the German approach will probably remain Merkel-style: cautious, step-by-step, and pragmatic if needed.

German elections good for Merkel, uncertain for the EuroTradingFloor
John J Hardy: The Euro doesn’t know what to do with the German election results which will not provide Merkel with a mandate to do anything besides what she has been doing for the last four years: damage control.

Angie ascendantMacroScope / Reuters
All the parties will hold press conferences today so next steps could become clearer, although the first key meeting is probably an SPD convention on Friday.

Merkel celebrates 'super result' in German voteeuobserver

Four more years – a multi-asset viewFT
Citi on German election outcomes.
German election – the road to a grand coalitionThe World / FT

The most likely combination remains a so-called grand coalition between the CDU/CSU and the SPD. This would be welcomed in the rest of the eurozone as the SPD voted along with Ms Merkel in last parliament to enable bailouts when some of her own party rebelled. It is also the option favoured by most German voters, according to opinion polls. But the SPD will seek to attract a big price for cooperation, possibly in the form of introducing the national minimum wage that they favour (which will cause some economists to worry that Germany could lose its edge in competitiveness). The SPD will also look closely at the fate of the FDP, which joined Ms Merkel’s coalition in 2009 promising wholesale tax reform which it then utterly failed to achieve, partially explaining their collapse on Sunday.

A Merkel routalphaville / FT
As JP Morgan’s Alex White said, one “can hardly escape the fact that Merkel’s coalition partners in her last two terms lost double digit shares of the vote. ” Caution warranted.

German Vote Puts Merkel Tantalizingly Close to a MajorityNYT
…could result in more paralysis for Europe as German leaders engage in weeks of horse-trading to form what is likely to be a grand coalition with Ms. Merkel’s main opponents on the left, the Social Democrats, who did not perform as well as they had hoped Sunday and who may prove reluctant partners for fear of losing further luster in a government dominated by Ms. Merkel.

Merkel romps to victory but faces tough coalition choicesReuters
Angela Merkel won a landslide personal victory in Germany's general election on Sunday, but her conservatives appeared just short of the votes needed to rule on their own and may have to convince leftist rivals to join a coalition government.

Angela Merkel celebrates after German electionBBC
Angela Merkel has urged her party to celebrate "a super result" after exit polls suggested she was set to win a third term as German chancellor.

Merkel Sees Biggest Victory Since Kohl’s Reunification VoteBB
Angela Merkel won an overwhelming endorsement from German voters, putting the country’s first female chancellor on course for the biggest election tally since Helmut Kohl’s post-reunification victory of 1990.

Election Triumph: Merkel Victorious But Faces Tough TalksSpiegel
Chancellor Angela Merkel won a resounding election victory on Sunday as her conservatives scored their best result since reunification in 1990. It's a personal triumph for her, but she still faces tough negotiations to form a stable government.

Germans Want a 'Mutti': The Secret of Merkel's SuccessSpiegel
When she took over the Christian Democrats 13 years ago, few thought Angela Merkel would last long. But after her resounding victory on Sunday, it is now clear that she has become so much more than just Germany's political leader.

Euro Gains Against Dollar After Merkel Seen Winning ElectionBB

German elections with more losers than winnerDanske Bank (pdf)

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What You Need To Know About Tomorrow's Election in GermanySlate

What’s good for Germany is good for the worldThe Money Illusion

The Koalitionsautomat: The German Coalition BuilderWSJ

The German Election 2013WSJ

Final pushThe Economist

Angela Merkel’s Next Road TripView / BB
If Merkel wins, she will face expectations across Europe to make decisions that will be unpopular at home.

Merkel fights for majority in tight German election raceReuters
Chancellor Angela Merkel looked on track to win a third term in a weekend election in Germany but faced a battle to preserve her center-right majority and avert a potentially divisive coalition with her arch-rivals, the center-left Social Democrats (SPD).

Merkel Evokes Postwar Peace to Champion EU in Final CampaigningBB
Merkel went into the last day of campaigning before tomorrow’s elections evoking the European Union as a guarantor of peace and prosperity.

Merkel Appeals for Strong Europe as Steinbrueck AttacksBB
Merkel closed her campaign evoking the benefits of European unity as Social Democrat Peer Steinbrueck lambasted her as ineffectual and “backward-looking.”

German federal elections preview: the parties and their campaignsEuropp / LSE

FDP battles to avoid German election defeatThe World / FT

Merkel Ally Calls for End to Clean-Energy Priority on Power GridBB

Forgetting about EuropeSüddeutsche Zeitung / Presseurop
The German elections are triggering a fascinating and unprecedented level of anticipation abroad. For Germany’s parties and voters, their country’s role and influence in Europe is so apparent that the issue is not a key battleground in the campaign. 

Tensions High: Last-Minute Poll Shows Close German RaceSpiegel
On the eve of election weekend in Germany, the governing coalition has a narrow lead of just 1 percent, according to a last-minute poll. The upshot? The outcome of the election is anyone's guess.

Complicated Yet Fair: Germany's Voting System ExplainedSpiegel
Germany's voting system is complicated, to the point that not even most Germans completely understand it. But it is one of the fairest around. Here is a brief explanation.

From Black to Orange: Guide to German Political PartiesSpiegel
Germany's political landscape used to be simple. In recent years, however, the emergence of smaller parties have mixed things up. With Germans preparing to go to the polls this autumn, SPIEGEL ONLINE has assembled a brief guide to the political parties worth watching. 

When it comes to Europe, Germany’s political elite and public are deeply dividedOpen Europe

Germany's anti-euro party mobilises non-voters and FDP supportersOpen Europe

German elections: the Greek viewThe World / FT

Germans head to the polls in close electioneuobserver

German national elections: the German voters’ viewsThe World / FT

Germany: ‘Merkel Urged To Act Faster If Re-Elected’Presseurop

‘Final spurt, olééé’Presseurop

Germany Can Save Europe By Focusing On HomeWSJ

A German election primeralphaville / FT

Angela Merkel to be reelected; outcome should help the EurozoneSober Look

Germany's anti euro party clashes with major pollster ahead of electionOpen Europe

Anti-euro AfD on 5% threshold to enter Bundestag days before election; Schäuble: AfD euro-policy has no credibility and is extremely dangerousOpen Europe

There have been three major shifts in German public opinion during the 2013 election campaign, including a late swing from the Greens to the Left PartyEuropp / LSE

Germany’s CDU will overcome the odds stacked against Christian Democratic parties in the 2013 elections, but this may not be the case long-termEuropp / LSE

The European Consequences of Germany’s ElectionProject Syndicate

What do the Bavarian election results tell us about next week's general elections?Open Europe

‘Seehofer triumphs in BavariaPresseurop

Analysis: Europe, waiting for Germany, could be disappointed Reuters
European policymakers have higher hopes than expectations of change in German policies after a general election next Sunday that has kept much European business on hold for months.

[Focus] Bavarian elections spell trouble for Merkeleuobserver

Germany: update on the election and the economyNordea
Tailwind for Angela Merkel from regional election in Bavaria * Main question: confirmation of current government or Grand Coalition? * German economy a bit weaker in Q3 but basically stable

Merkel Wins Bellwether Vote As Coalition Partner Founders; Anti-Euro Party Ascent Could Derail CoalitionZH

Merkel Poised for Election Boost From Vote in BavariaBB
Merkel’s sister party was set to win a majority in Bavarian state elections, giving the incumbent a boost as she heads into the final week of her campaign before a national vote.

Merkel allies win in Bavaria a week before German electionReuters
Angela Merkel's allies swept to victory in a state election in Bavaria on Sunday, regaining the absolute assembly majority they lost in 2008 and providing a show of conservative strength for the chancellor a week before Germany goes to the polls

CSU wins Bavaria, but can Merkel win Germany?Danske Bank (pdf)

German anti-euro party could derail Merkel coalition hopesReuters
A new anti-euro party could enter Germany's national parliament after an election next week, pollsters said on Sunday, potentially upsetting Chancellor Angela Merkel's hopes of returning to power with her current coalition partner.
What Europe expects - and what Germany will not doOpen Democracy
Europeans expect a lot from Germany. But that doesn't necessarily mean European matters will have an impact on the upcoming German election.
German party positions on key eurozone policiesOpen Europe / Twitter

Merkel hopes for re-election boost from Bavarian voteReuters
Bavarians cast their ballots on Sunday in an election that is expected to hand Angela Merkel's allies nearly 50 percent of the vote, giving the German chancellor and her conservatives momentum a week before a federal election.

'One woman to rule them all’Presseurop

Energy, an election issue and luxuryPresseurop 

‘The forgotten middle class’Presseurop

Would you like to see the German elections result inPresseurop

Germany’s Sleepy but Significant ElectionPIIE

The German Federal Election: The Full InfographicZH

Political Poker in Germany; Grand Coalition Possibilities IncreaseMish’s

One woman to rule them allThe Economist
German voters should re-elect Angela Merkel.

Angela Merkel: A safe pair of handsThe Economist

UK Endorsement: The Economist Falls Under Merkel's SpellSpiegel
Germans love Merkel. But The Economist has long been skeptical -- until now. In its new issue, the British newsmagazine throws its support behind the chancellor for a third term in the misguided hope that Mutti will become a visionary.

Dodging the Issues Merkel Campaign Driven by Fear of VotersSpiegel
The German campaign is in full swing, but Chancellor Angela Merkel is carefully avoiding controversial issues. Her stump message focuses entirely on her person and gives short shrift to her plans for Germany's future. Her only platform is her popularity.

 “Germany votes, Europe worries”Presseurop
A minor debate over road tolls might finally push the issue of Europe to the forefront of the German election campaign – Europp / LSE

The power of small partiesDB Research
Once upon a time, Germany had a three-party system with the smallest party, the FDP, as a sought-after partner for coalition building. This simple world mutated into a slightly more complicated one with the advent of the Greens in 1983. In 1994, the Left Party joined the club of small parties in the Bundestag. Today, the euro-sceptic Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the Pirates are rising above the rest of the fringe parties, though both are a far cry from garnering the same kind of support as the established small parties

No fundamental change in eurozone policy after the German electionsOpen Europe
Of the nine proposals being floated to pull the eurozone out of crisis, we expect clear movement in only one or two areas, including the most important but most unclear one: the proposal for a single eurozone resolution authority for banks.

German election update: Merkel defends her leadNordea

German elections to set EU agenda in coming monthseuobserver

German elections: New momentum on EU issuesDanske Bank (pdf)
Both the current coalitions and a possible broad CDU-SPD coalition are pro euro. Euro-sceptic Alternative für Deutschland has only a round 3% of the votes in the polls. Nevertheless, the elections are important, because sensitive European issues have de facto been paused in order not to upset the German voters. Thus, we expect progress on issues from the Banking Union to Greek debt forgiveness to gain renewed momentum after the elections, no matter who wins.

Bitter Euro Truths: Crisis Could Damage Merkel's CampaignSpiegel
Chancellor Angela Merkel has been forced to concede that Greece will require additional aid -- an admission that has dented her reputation as a crisis manager ahead of the election. But she still hasn't revealed the true scope of the costs facing Germany.

German elections 2013: The four European unknownsPresseurop

Popular with Populists: Euroskeptic Party Attracts Right WingSpiegel
Since its launch in April, euroskeptic party Alternative for Germany has been accused of peddling right-wing sentiments. A new study establishes the party's centrist status, but shows that it still attracts right-wing populist attention.

All Change? Open Europe
Why the German elections are unlikely to fundamentally alter eurozone policy

Germany is a vegetarian in a world full of carnivoresGideon Rachman / FT
German political debate is peculiarly parochial considering it is the leading power in Europe

Right-Wing Surprise: Anti-Euro Party Surges Before ElectionSpiegel

"Grand Coalition" Led by MerkelMish’s
Not Going to Happen, Expect a Shocker in Germany Election

Germany’s new anti-euro party could actually hurt Cameron's chances in EuropeThe Telegraph

German Euro-Skeptics Could Give Merkel an Election Shock Businessweek
A euro-skeptical political party known as AfD is rising in the polls and could deny her Christian Democratic Union and its coalition partners the majority they need to continue governing.

Fickle Electorate: Why Are German Political Polls So Inaccurate?Spiegel
In recent years, German pollsters have been subject to intense scrutiny, partly due to the waning reliability of their data. Those who conduct surveys, though, say the country's shifting political landscape and increasingly capricious voters are to blame.

The Power of Egoism: Merkel Re-Election Campaign Stalls the EUSpiegel
Angela Merkel has indirectly accused other EU members of egoism in the Syria crisis. When it comes to European policies, however, the chancellor can be accused of the same: The German election has put the brakes on several important projects in Brussels.

Q&A: German parliamentary electionBBC