Google Analytics

Saturday, September 21

21st Sep - Weekender: Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter or Facebook

Friday Close
Markets – Between The Hedges
Daily Risk Monitor – Global Macro Monitor
Europe Closes Week Green Despite Biggest Confidence Miss In 17 Months – ZH
Dow Slumps Most In 3 Weeks On Heaviest Volume In Over 2 Years; Erases All Fed Gains – ZH
Weekly Scoreboard – Between The Hedges
US market portrait – Portfolio Probe

The Economist’s Weeklies:

The Weekenderbeyondbrics / FT

Succinct summation of week’s eventsThe Big Picture

Weekly Bull/Bear Recap: Sep 16-20RCS

Schedule for WeekCalculated Risk

The key reports this week are August New Home sales on Wednesday, Case-Shiller house prices for July on Tuesday, the third estimate of Q2 GDP on Thursday, and the August Personal Income and Outlays report on Friday. Also the Fed will release the Q2 Flow of Funds report this week, and the Pending Home Sales index for August might show a sharp decline. For manufacturing, the Richmond and Kansas City regional manufacturing surveys for September will be released this week. Note: My guess is Janet Yellen will be nominated as Fed Chair this week, perhaps on Monday.

Economic CalendarBerenberg (pdf)
German elections - three questions: Can Merkel continue her coalition?; If not, will the social democrats join her?; and will the anti-euro party enter the Bundestag? Eurozone confidence: PMIs, Ifo, European Commission indicators all to rise as the recovery broadens. Talking down the euro: ECB Draghi et al. take to the microphones after the Fed

Economic CalendarHandelsbanken (pdf)

S&P 500 Earnings Week AheadReuters

Wall Street Week AheadReuters
U.S. stocks needn't fret about a government shutdown

(video) Asia Week Ahead: Is China just following the Fed?Reuters

Weighing the Week AheadA Dash of Insight
Will Washington Gridlock Scuttle Stocks?

Key Events And Issues In The Coming WeekZH

Week Ahead 21-27 SepNordea (pdf)
US: The coming week’s calendar, while sizeable, has mostly second-tier data releases, but there will be plenty of Fed speakers to keep markets busy. Look out for hints on the subject of tapering. Euro zone: All eyes on the German election this weekend. It shouldn´t be a big market mover but will nevertheless cover front pages on Monday morning. Flash PMIs from the Euro zone and German IFO will also be in focus next week, but with a solid recent trend a slight setback wouldn´t surprise us. China: Flash HSBC PMI from China will likely set the tone for markets on Monday morning. We believe further improvements are on the cards.

Weekly Focus: Risks to global economy coming down fastDanske Bank (pdf)
After the German election over the weekend, Angela Merkel is expected to continue as Chancellor but a broad CDU/CSU-SPD coalition seems to be the most likely outcome. We expect Chinese HSBC Flash PMI to rise further to 51.1, from 50.0 in August. Euro Flash PMI should also rise but the increases are expected to be more moderate going forward. We expect US core durable goods orders to rebound following the disappointing fall last month. We expect US consumer confidence to decline. We expect increased focus on US negotiations on the 2014 budget as 30 September
deadline draws nearer.

The Week Ahead Sep 23Handelsbanken (pdf)
US: In August, non-defense capital goods shipments, excl. aircrafts, likely rose, while new home sales seem to be hit by the rise in mortgage rates. Finally, private consumption spending likely rose by 0.2 percent in real terms. Sweden: Roughly unchanged Swedish sentiment at large; higher sales growth - our forecast on August. Norway: Small uptick in LFS unemployment, registered (NAV) unemployment rate stable. EMU: Improvement in barometers moderates.
Strategy: Fed just removed the biggest tail risk for risk assetsDanske Bank (pdf)

Weekly Credit UpdateDanske Bank (pdf)
Indices tighten as tapering is delayed. Traxx indices have rolled. Rimary arket activity has picked up.

Scandi markets aheadDanske Bank (pdf)
Norges Bank in focus and Swedish inflation bottoming out

FX Comment: mouths wide shutNordea
This will likely be a consolidation week, with lots of central bank talk to introduce volatility. The USD will try to fight, but not run far against majors. Turning cautious on cyclicals/EMs.

EM FX Monocle – Reward and punishmentNordea (pdf)
Emerging Markets will continue to be the main source of growth in the coming several years. EM should not be regarded as one region but as a fragmented group with many diversities. Be aware of the fundamentally vulnerable currencies, but don’t lose faith in them all.

Emerging Markets Briefer - Sep 2013Danske Bank (pdf)
Clouds are disappearing, but headwinds remain

EMEA WeeklyDanske Bank (pdf)
Ukraine getting closer to the edge

Emerging Market Preview: The Week AheadMarc to Market

Emerging: Week Aheadbeyondbrics / FT

Agenda: Merkel in search of government deal this week euobserver

Europe’s Week Ahead: Germany Goes to the PollsWSJ

Economic Calendar –
Economic Calendar – BB
EU calendar –

Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter or Facebook