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Monday, September 30

30th Sep - US Open: Will the US close shop?

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Roundups & Commentary
Frontrunning – ZH
Overnight: Futures Tumbles Ahead Of US Government Shutdown – ZH
The Lunch Wrap – alphaville / FT
Emerging N.Y. headlines – beyondbrics / FT
EU daily news – Europa
Daily press summary – Open Europe
  Cameron and Hague seek to remove ‘ever closer union’ from the EU treaties
Morning MoneyBeat: Dark Clouds Glower Over Washington – WSJ
Morning Bond Update – TradingFloor
Dollar Mixed, Markets Nervous, Politics Cut Appetite for Risk – Marc to Market

ECB Watch: Why another LTRO? Nordea
The case for a new LTRO will be the focal point of Wednesday's ECB meeting. Thus, this month's ECB preview has been extended with a deeper look at the likelihood of another LTRO

Who really (really, really) wants European stocks?alphaville / FT
BoAML stirred the pot earlier this month with a fund manager survey which found that allocations to European equities had reached highs last seen in May 2007:

Italian political risks rise againNordea
On Saturday, five Cabinet ministers and members of Berlusconi’s PDL stepped down in an attempt to bring down the current government and hold new elections.

Oh SilvioMacroScope / Reuters
With markets already alarmed at the prospect of another self-inflicted political wound – the U.S. government budget shutdown – Italian assets could take a hammering today with investors finally waking up to the potential chaos looming.

Italy plunges into fresh political turmoil: End of the line for PM Letta?Open Europe

Goldman Closes Italian 10-Year Bond Long RecommendationZH

Italy in Turmoil, But Hope RemainsWSJ

ECB Backstop Mitigates Italy’s CrisisWSJ
Italian Bonds Decline a Third Day as Letta Faces Confidence VoteBB
U.S., Italian political risks spark flight to safetyReuters
Italian bond yields jumped and European shares fell on Monday

Euro-Area September Inflation Slows More Than Forecast on Energy – BB
September Euro area annual inflation down to 1.1% - Europa
Europe’s Record Jobless Rate Seen Resisting Recovery – BB
German August Retail Sales Rose While Missing Estimates – BB

Capitol quiet as federal government shutdown nearsReuters
With a deadline to avert a federal government shutdown fast approaching, the U.S. Capitol was eerily quiet on Sunday as Republicans and Democrats waited for the other side to blink first and break the impasse over funding.

Debt ceiling fandango: the key datesalphaville / FT
Analysts at BoAML give the chances of a US government shutdown this coming quarter a 30 per cent probability. They add that if it was to occur, it would probably be short-lived with minimal economic repercussions. Also, it’s not like a shutdown hasn’t happened before: it happened once in 1990, as well as once in 1995/1996. It wasn’t the end of the world then, and thus shouldn’t be the end of the world this time either.

The Taper ChaseProject Syndicate
Global financial markets were stunned when the US Federal Reserve announced on September 18 that it was not ready to begin the widely anticipated slowdown of its long-term asset purchases. There are three possible reasons why the Fed shifted its plans so dramatically, and all point to continuation of quantitative easing.

China PMIs: big differencebeyondbrics / FT

Japan update: reform is not a choiceNordea
Structural reform is the third and the most crucial arrow of Abenomics. If radical changes are made, Japan has a real chance of coming out of the decade-long coma.

Equities caught in crossfire from US budgets, Berlusconi, ChinaTradingFloor
Finally it happened this weekend as equities got caught in crossfire from a host of events that saw the week start off with declines across the board. Volatility will likely go up and drawdowns are coming.

What Matters for Global Markets in the Week AheadWSJ

Suomen maksutase, vuosikatsaus 2012–2013/I–IISuomen Pankki
Suomalaisyritykset ovat viime vuosina vieneet ulkomaille enemmän pääomaa kuin finanssikriisiä edeltävänä aikana. Pääomanvientiä on kasvattanut ulkomaisten kohteiden rahoituksen kansainvälistyminen vuoden 2008 finanssikriisin jälkeen.

Italia uhkaa taas euroa: "Touhu on lähinnä saippuaoopperaa"Verkkouutiset