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Wednesday, September 25

25th Sep - EU Open

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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News roundup – Between The Hedges
The 6am Cut London – alphaville / FT
Emerging Markets Headlines – beyondbrics / FT
Asia Morning MoneyBeat: Stocks Fall Again, Financials Remain Weak – WSJ
Europe Morning MoneyBeat: Risk Appetite Shrivels WSJ

3 Numbers to Watch: French manufacturing, UK retail, US homesTradingFloor
Updates on sentiment among manufacturers in France and retailers in Britain, followed by the latest estimate of new home sales in the US, are among today’s key numbers to watch.

Market Preview: German GfK survey, US durable goods data in focusTradingFloor
European markets are likely to open almost flat Wednesday. Traders await US durable goods orders data due today which is likely to show an improvement in August. Also, today’s German GfK consumer confidence and US new home sales data will be eyed.

Danske DailyDanske Bank (pdf)
Durable goods orders and new home sales in the US. It will be interesting to see if there are any signs of a negative impact on home sales from the increase in mortgage rates in recent months. Negotiations to secure an agreement on funding of government expenditures for the new fiscal year starting on 1 October. A Senate vote is expected this evening.

Market comment: Know what? Tapering depends on dataNordea
Uncertainty about US fiscal and monetary policy pushes bond yields lower * Tapering depends on data, Dudley says * Ifo edges up * Today: More European sentiment data and US new home sales * Bond supply form Italy and US

Aamukatsaus Nordea
Asuntomarkkinat tukevat talouden elpymistä * Työttömiä taas oudon vähän * Unkarin keskuspankki laski ohjauskorkoa

Aamukatsaus – Tapiola (pdf)


Shutdown vs. Default: The Relative ImpactEconomix / NYT
The shutdown might happen when the continuing resolution financing the federal government expires on Sept. 30. The default might happen when the Treasury runs out of room under its statutory debt ceiling, likely around Oct. 15.

Goldman Warns Fed Chair Nomination Could Take 3 MonthsZH

An Alternative View Of Why The Fed Did Not (and Will Not) TaperZH
CitiFX: The "taper" is all about economic cover for a forced move the Fed has to make: 1. Deficits are shrinking and the Fed has less and less room for its buying 2. Various non-mainstream technicalities are breaking in the markets due to the size of the Fed's position 3. If the public starts to believe that the central bank is monetizing the government's debt then the game accelerates away from them very quickly. 4. The rest of the world is not happy.

Itseään kuppaava Saksa on varoittava esimerkkiTalSa
Saksaa pidetään hyvänä esimerkkinä taloudenpidosta, ja sen omaksumaa mallia ajetaan läpi Suomessa. Euforia peittää kuitenkin alleen Saksan talouden rakenteiden rapautumisen. Tämä olisi hyvä pitää mielessä myös kotipuolessa.