30th Sep - EU Open: Italy's fall, US's fails

The Italian government looks ready to fall. They just don't have the support they need. In Austria, the anti-euro agenda was a big winner, but not by enough - they will form a rainbow-government of all the parties except the anti-euro-parties, which will make the government weak and unfocused, just like in Finland and many other countries. But hey, anything for the euro!

US government shutdown probably happens after today. It will likely remain short, but markets might still make a big issue out of it.

Roundups

The 6am Cut London – alphaville / FT

Emerging Markets Headlines – beyondbrics / FT

Europe Morning MoneyBeat: Stocks Look Surrounded – WSJ

MORNING BRIEFINGS

3 Numbers to Watch: German retail sales, UK M4, US Dallas Fed – TradingFloor

Today’s key economic reports include retail sales for Germany, M4 money supply data for Britain and the US Dallas Fed Index.

Market Preview: Political crisis in Italy; US budget talks eyed – TradingFloor

European markets are expected to open lower Monday amid fears of a potential US government shutdown. Also, the resignation of five ministers from Silvio Berlusconi’s party over the weekend has sparked political uncertainty in Italy.

Danske Daily – Danske Bank (pdf)

US: negotiations about temporary government funding for the new budget year starting tomorrow. It appears that negotiations will go down the wire and the risk of a partial government shutdown from tomorrow is substantial. If an agreement is reached, it will be after market close in Europe. Europe: political developments in Italy but no clarification is expected until Wednesday when the government might face a non-confidence vote in parliament.

Market comment: Pick your drama, US or Italian – Nordea

Italian political worries to push yields higher vs Germany * US fiscal year-end spectacle intensifies * New elections looming in Italy * Fed´s Dudley hesitant on tapering * US employment report and ECB decision on this week´s agenda * Issuance from Spain and France in focus this week

Aamukatsaus – Nordea

Tällä viikolla katseet Yhdysvaltoihin * Yliannos politiikkaa * Öljyn hinta lähelle 7 viikon pohjia

Aamukatsaus – Tapiola (pdf)

Markkinakalenteri – Nordnet

Markkinakalenteri – Taloussanomat

EUROPE

ECB Preview: Nothing but a dovish attitude – Danske Bank (pdf)

Eurozone's falling excess reserves - is another round of LTRO required? – Sober Look

Scandi markets ahead: End of scandi government bond underperformance? – Danske Bank (pdf)

Germany Readies for Weeks of Coalition Talks as Parties Position – BB

Austrian Socialists Sinking to Record Low Seek Coalition – BB

Austrian parties set to renew grand coalition after election slap – Reuters

  PIIGS

Greece: Troika Statement – IMF

Greece is starting to look like Weimar Germany – The Telegraph

Italian president hopes to solve political crisis without new vote – Reuters

Italy's president began talks on Sunday to pull the country out of a new political crisis, attempting to undercut a move by former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi to bring down the government and force new elections seven months after the last vote.

When Hope Fails: Why Italian Banks Better Be Praying Draghi Can Still Do "Whatever It Takes" – ZH

Italian government in chaos after Berlusconi move – Marketwatch

The Italian government was under pressure Sunday after former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi’s party said all five of its ministers would resign from the cabinet.

Berlusconi Has Last Laugh As Italy Scrambles To Contain Fallout From Government Collapse – ZH

UNITED STATES

Capitol building eerily quiet as government shutdown nears – Reuters

With a midnight Monday deadline to avert a federal government shutdown fast approaching, the U.S. Capitol building was eerily quiet on Sunday, with meeting rooms locked, lawmakers not to be found, and both parties waiting for the other to blink.

Senate Action on Health Law Moves to Brink of Shutdown – NYT

How The Market Reacted To Prior Government Shut Downs – ZH

Government shutdown! Time to sell? – Humble Student

Markets are wrong on taper expectations – TradingFloor

The markets have been wrong about the tapering earlier, and ignored the clarifications from the Federal Reserve's presidents at their own peril. Now the markets assume that tapering will be delayed a lot. It probably won't.

ASIA

China manufacturing slows to “fractional” pace – beyondbrics / FT

OTHER

FX Comment: Show Time – Nordea

Q3 Review: Ten Economic Questions for 2013 – Calculated Risk