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Monday, September 30

30th Sep - EU Open: Italy's fall, US's fails

The Italian government looks ready to fall. They just don't have the support they need. In Austria, the anti-euro agenda was a big winner, but not by enough - they will form a rainbow-government of all the parties except the anti-euro-parties, which will make the government weak and unfocused, just like in Finland and many other countries. But hey, anything for the euro!

US government shutdown probably happens after today. It will likely remain short, but markets might still make a big issue out of it.

The 6am Cut London – alphaville / FT
Emerging Markets Headlines – beyondbrics / FT
Europe Morning MoneyBeat: Stocks Look Surrounded – WSJ

3 Numbers to Watch: German retail sales, UK M4, US Dallas FedTradingFloor
Today’s key economic reports include retail sales for Germany, M4 money supply data for Britain and the US Dallas Fed Index.

Market Preview: Political crisis in Italy; US budget talks eyedTradingFloor
European markets are expected to open lower Monday amid fears of a potential US government shutdown. Also, the resignation of five ministers from Silvio Berlusconi’s party over the weekend has sparked political uncertainty in Italy.

Danske DailyDanske Bank (pdf)
US: negotiations about temporary government funding for the new budget year starting tomorrow. It appears that negotiations will go down the wire and the risk of a partial government shutdown from tomorrow is substantial. If an agreement is reached, it will be after market close in Europe. Europe: political developments in Italy but no clarification is expected until Wednesday when the government might face a non-confidence vote in parliament.

Market comment: Pick your drama, US or ItalianNordea
Italian political worries to push yields higher vs Germany * US fiscal year-end spectacle intensifies * New elections looming in Italy * Fed´s Dudley hesitant on tapering * US employment report and ECB decision on this week´s agenda * Issuance from Spain and France in focus this week

Tällä viikolla katseet Yhdysvaltoihin * Yliannos politiikkaa * Öljyn hinta lähelle 7 viikon pohjia

Aamukatsaus – Tapiola (pdf)


ECB Preview: Nothing but a dovish attitude Danske Bank (pdf)

Eurozone's falling excess reserves - is another round of LTRO required? Sober Look

Scandi markets ahead: End of scandi government bond underperformance? Danske Bank (pdf)

Germany Readies for Weeks of Coalition Talks as Parties PositionBB

Austrian Socialists Sinking to Record Low Seek CoalitionBB
Austrian parties set to renew grand coalition after election slapReuters

Greece: Troika StatementIMF
Greece is starting to look like Weimar GermanyThe Telegraph

Italian president hopes to solve political crisis without new voteReuters
Italy's president began talks on Sunday to pull the country out of a new political crisis, attempting to undercut a move by former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi to bring down the government and force new elections seven months after the last vote.

When Hope Fails: Why Italian Banks Better Be Praying Draghi Can Still Do "Whatever It Takes"ZH

Italian government in chaos after Berlusconi moveMarketwatch
The Italian government was under pressure Sunday after former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi’s party said all five of its ministers would resign from the cabinet.

Berlusconi Has Last Laugh As Italy Scrambles To Contain Fallout From Government CollapseZH

Capitol building eerily quiet as government shutdown nearsReuters
With a midnight Monday deadline to avert a federal government shutdown fast approaching, the U.S. Capitol building was eerily quiet on Sunday, with meeting rooms locked, lawmakers not to be found, and both parties waiting for the other to blink.

Senate Action on Health Law Moves to Brink of ShutdownNYT

How The Market Reacted To Prior Government Shut DownsZH

Government shutdown! Time to sell?Humble Student

Markets are wrong on taper expectationsTradingFloor
The markets have been wrong about the tapering earlier, and ignored the clarifications from the Federal Reserve's presidents at their own peril. Now the markets assume that tapering will be delayed a lot. It probably won't.

China manufacturing slows to “fractional” pace – beyondbrics / FT

FX Comment: Show TimeNordea

Q3 Review: Ten Economic Questions for 2013Calculated Risk