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Saturday, September 7

7th Sep - Weekender: The World

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Brussels blog round up 31 August - 6 SeptemberEuropp / LSE
G20 summit, Norway heads to the polls, and can the German elections still spring a surprise?

‘New Portugal plan will be tougher than Ireland’s deal’Presseurop
To ensure its future, Portugal will have to sign a new financial aid deal with the European Commission and European Central Bank in June 2014 when its current agreement with the IMF-ECB-EU troika of international lenders comes to an end.

Europe’s Asian PivotProject Syndicate
The Obama administration’s so-called “pivot to Asia” is the most important strategic shift that the United States has undertaken since the end of the Cold War – and it has profound implications for Europe. But Europe’s leaders have largely ignored or misunderstood its significance, and thus have failed to seize the opportunity that it represents.

Poland Confiscates Half Of Private Pension Funds To "Cut" Sovereign Debt LoadZH

Whatever you do, don't mention immigrationThe Telegraph
I did not argue that all immigration was bad. What I did attempt to argue was that mass, low-skill immigration depresses wages, and that this probably causes employers to duck investment in productivity and use low cost labour instead to stay competitive. I would have thought the evidence for this is, well, pretty self evident.

Right-Wing Surprise: Anti-Euro Party Surges Before ElectionSpiegel

"Grand Coalition" Led by MerkelMish’s
Not Going to Happen, Expect a Shocker in Germany Election

Germany’s new anti-euro party could actually hurt Cameron's chances in EuropeThe Telegraph

Don’t bash Larry for thisRivast

FOMC members fret over deflation risksSober Look

Fed Officials Face Cliffhanger September Meeting After Mixed Jobs ReportWSJ

Employment Reports Muddies the Policy OutlookTim Duy’s Fed Watch
I still look for tapering at the next meeting, albeit tapering-light…The Fed will worry that delaying tapering now will only put them at risk of having to taper more aggressively later, and such a scenario would be interpreted by financial markets as stepping up the timing of the first rate hike.  They can get the first move out of the way this month with a small cut to the pace of asset purchases and then reassess the situation over the next six weeks.

Update: Four Charts to Track Timing for QE3 TaperingCalculated Risk

To Taper or Not to Taper, That is the Question (After a Weak Jobs Report)WSJ

WSJ's Hilsenrath: September FOMC Meeting "Cliffhanger"Calculated Risk

Fed’s Evans: Bond Buys Can Be Trimmed This YearWSJ
Fed can start tapering ‘later this year,' says EvansReuters
Fed's Evans says still on fence about September taperReuters
Fed’s Evans sticks to strong forecast despite missesMacroScope / Reuters

Fed’s George: Appropriate to Trim Bond BuyingWSJ
Fed's George favors cutting QE to $70 billion per month in SeptemberReuters

Emerging Markets’ Euro NemesisProject Syndicate
Daniel Gros: A few years ago, when the US Federal Reserve embarked on yet another round of “quantitative easing,” some emerging-market leaders complained loudly. But the real reason why capital flowed into emerging markets over the last few years, and why the external accounts of so many of them have swung into deficit, is the euro.

Strategy: EM biggest case for positive surprise in 2014Danske Bank (pdf)

The capital-freeze index: Stop signsThe Economist
Which emerging markets are the most vulnerable to freeze of capital inflows?

EM fund flows: the exodus continuesbeyondbrics / FT

The G20 Leaders' DeclarationG20

Failure On All Fronts No Progress from G-20 LeadersSpiegel
The G-20 summit ended worse than expected on Friday -- with acrimony, division and name-calling over Syria. The conference, which was originally conceived as an economic forum, also failed to deliver results on global recovery.

G20 to Emerging Markets: We Feel Your PainCFR

G-20 Needs to Reinvent Itself to Be RelevantView / BB