30th Jun - D-Day for Greece, Referendum ahead

30th Jun - 4 of my recent ones on Greece, EZ's future

Why Greece matters to the other crisis countries

The eurocrisis countries are not OK. The nonperforming loans are encumbering their banks' balance sheets, and not enough has been done to change this. This keeps the crisis countries politically on a tight leash, as creditor countries' political and probably financial support is inevitable. This explains why politicians in Spain and Italy remain loyal toward the EU and why they act passive-aggressively toward Greece. But what happens later this year, when Portugal and Spain hold elections?

 

Worst-case Greece scenario is tolerable, so be bullish

While there is cautious optimism about a deal being made to resolve the Greek debt crisis, make no mistake – there will be losses at some point. But a quick look of the worst possible outcome suggests that they might not be that bad. So did the stock market get scared into a big correction, just before it makes a big rally?

 

Contagion from Greece: don't worry - yet

There will be no contagion from Greece. The euro area's leaders have blocked every channel that could cause harm. The only remaining contagion channel is themselves, as they will now be unable to complete the monetary union as a result of their actions over Greece.

   

What happens after the Grexit and what to watch out for

In my third article on Greece, I outline what will be next on the agenda. Losses from Greece will have to be handled somehow, and the European Central Bank will do what is expected from it - but nothing more, and nothing less. The key will be how the European institutions handle the country-specific economic control - too much or too little, someone will become alienated.

29th Jun - Panic dip bought eagerly

28th Jun - W/E: Linkfest (mostly Greece)

28th Jun - W/E: Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here. This post will be updated as new material is published.

26th Jun - "The last weekend" begins

25th Jun - Last weekend for Greece

24th Jun - Less "Hope" and no results

23rd Jun - Even more "Hope", but no results

22nd Jun - "Hope", but no results on Greece

21st Jun - W/E: Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here. This post will be updated as new material is published.

18th Jun - Eurogroup on Greece fails

17th Jun - Fed slowly for Sep hike, as expected

16th June - Still waiting for Fed & Greece

15th Jun - Waiting for Fed & Greece

14th Jun - W/E: Linkfest

14th Jun - W/E: Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here. This post will be updated as new material is published.

12th Jun - "Greece has 24 hours"

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

Thursday: Greece running out of time

Wednesday: Euro debated

Tuesday: Boring

Monday: When failure is a sign of success

W/E: Weekly Support

Friday: Good US job-data

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EUROPE

Great Graphic: Euro Real Broad Effective Exchange Rate and Merkel – Marc Chandler

Merkel Defends ECB From German Criticism After Deflation Scare – BB

  GREECE 

Euro zone formally discusses Greek default for first time – Reuters

How Europe Formally Discussing A Greek Default Shook Markets – ZH

Merkel urges Greece and creditors to keep pushing for deal – Reuters

Greece’s IMF Setback: Has Anything Really Changed? – WSJ

EU looks at Plan B for Greece – Politico

Greek Stocks, Bank Bonds Battered As Deal Hope Fades – ZH

Greece Refuses To Blink; EU Says Noncompliance "Not An Option" – ZH

Grexit Contagion - European Peripheral Bond Risk Is Soaring – ZH

Europe Gives Greece 24 Hours To Comply; Germany Draws Up Capital Control Plans – ZH

Athens defies creditors’ warning on aid – FT

Salvation to Catastrophe: What Might Happen to Greece – BB

EU Prepares for Worst as Greece Goes to Brink – BB

Keeping Greece in the Euro May Not Be About Euros – BB

Greece Counts Cost of One Man’s Gamble – BB

UNITED STATES

FOMC preview: Fed to signal rate hike later this year – Nordea

The Fed is unlikely to make any policy changes at next week’s FOMC meeting. However, we expect the central bank to affirm its signal that it will be appropriate to lift rates at some point this year. The main focus will be on the FOMC’s revised fed funds rate projections. We continue to expect lift-off in Fed rates at the 16-17 September FOMC meeting.

 
  DATA

Producer Prices Jump MoM Most Since Sept 2012 Driven By Higher Energy Costs – ZH

U.S. producer prices post largest gain since 2012 – Reuters

US consumer confidence rebounds in June – TF

Preliminary June Consumer Sentiment increases to 94.6 – Bill McBride

U.S. consumer sentiment climbs in June – Reuters

REGULARS

Daily Central Banks – WSJ

Hilsenrath’s Take: Reassuring Consumer Data Keep Fed On Track for Rate Increases * WSJ Survey: Fed Won’t Raise Rates Before September * Fed Meetings May Be Live, But Here’s Why They’re Unlikely to Surprise * Draghi: ECB Didn’t Give Privileged Information to Fund Managers * BOE’s McCafferty Says Downside Risks to Inflation Diminishing

Daily Macro – WSJ

Greece once again takes the headlines amid reports that the International Monetary Fund has had enough of bailout talks that draw no closer to resolution. The Greek government still has a bit of time to strike some sort of bargain with its creditors and is likely to use all of it to squeeze out the best possible deal. So with its IMF payments not due until the end of the month, there’s every chance the current drama will see another twist or two over the coming week or so.

Morning MoneyBeat Asia – WSJ

U.S. Stocks Rise on Sales Improvement

Morning MoneyBeat Europe – WSJ

Stocks to Struggle as IMF Leaves the Building

Morning MoneyBeat US – WSJ

Lack of Optimism Suggests Stocks Could Rise

Danske Daily – Danske Bank

Euro rates update – Nordea

Eye-Opener – Nordea

EUR/USD dips * Happy US consumers * Swedish rate cut off the table on strong inflation print

Morning Markets – TF

We've been here so many times, but are we really now approaching the endgame on Greece? Certainly, the niceties of the diplomatic circuit were conspicuous by their absence as the IMF left the negotiations and Greece got a stern dressing down.

Daily FX Comment – Marc Chandler

Dollar Remains Bid

Daily Shot – TF

The IMF has walked out of its negotiations with Greece, and many are saying the Eurogroup should do the same. The move saw German bund yields fell sharply as hope for a solution dims.

Daily Press Summary – Open Europe

IMF recalls officials as hope for deal with Greece fade * David Cameron continues EU reform talks ahead of June EU summit * ECB denies suggestions it failed to provide privileged information to entire market * La Stampa: European Commission considers dropping binding refugee quotas * Dijsselbloem likely to stay on as Eurogroup head * Podemos-backed candidate will become new Mayor of Madrid * EU launches antitrust probe against Amazon

Brussels Playbook – Politico

US Open – ZH

Markets Twist And Turn On Every Headline In The Endless Greek Tragedy

Frontrunning – ZH

FX Update – TF

FX traders are nervously eyeing what may prove a huge week for FX as we have three important central bank meetings (Fed, SNB and Norges Bank) as well as a potentially pivotal Eurogroup meeting for the “Greece issue” next Thursday.

From the Floor – TF

Bonds have rebounded after yesterday's dramatic withdrawal by the IMF from the Greek debt talks.

FINNISH

Aamukatsaus – Nordea

Mahdollisimman moni suu makiaksi | Koroissa korjausliike alaspäin | USA:n vähittäismyyntiluvut vahvat

Tällaiset olisivat Kreikan euroeron vaikutukset – Verkkouutiset

Saksan ja Ranskan demarit haastavat SSS-hallituksen – Antti Ronkainen

Jari Korkki: Yhden Ässän kyselytunti – YLE

11th Jun - Greece running out of time

10th Jun - Euro debated

9th Jun - Boring

8th Jun - When failure is a sign of success

7th Jun - W/E: Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here. This post will be updated as new material is published.

5th Jun - Good US job-data

4th Jun - Greece close to edge

3rd Jun - ECB-meeting fails to stop EUR and bonds

2nd Jun - EURUSD spikes on inflation

1st Jun - Greece, ECB, payrolls this week