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Monday, June 1

1st Jun - Greece, ECB, payrolls this week

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Why Germany Could Worry the ECB More Than GreeceWSJ

Germany and France demand changes to migration planPolitico

The Juncker fund: EU shows the moneyPolitico

Krugman: Northern DiscomfortNYT
Krugman: The Finnish DiseaseNYT

Don’t Rule it Out: Simplifying Fiscal Governance in Europeimfdirect
IMF criticises EU debt and deficit rulesFT

EZ fundamentals no. 1: Potential growth important for bond yieldsDanske Bank

French Unemployment Surges By Most In 7 Months To New Record HighZH

Greek Talks With Creditors Deepen as Payment Clock Ticks – BB
Hans-Werner Sinn: Varoufakis’s Great Game – Project Syndicate
GS: Greek Default, Deposit Blocks, New Government May Be Necessary To End Impasse – ZH
What Would Greek Capital Controls Look Like? – BB

Draghi Deflation Relief Means Little With Greek Threat UnsolvedBB

ECB preview: More boring than last timeNordea
The absence of big news will not make this week’s ECB meeting uninteresting. Draghi is set to emphasize once more the sizable easing the ECB is providing, and confirm the more flexible nature of the purchases over the coming months.  The message will leave core yields free to fall back further and the euro to weaken.

Policies working, ECB must persist with purchase programs: ConstancioReuters

Press release: TARGET2 turnover stable in 2014 – ECB
Publication: TARGET Annual Report 2014 – ECB
Bank bias in Europe: effects on systemic risk and growth – ECB
Real estate markets and macroprudential policy in Europe – ECB

Bond Market’s Fading Inflation View Seen Undercutting Job GainsBB

Money and Velocity During Financial Crisis: From the Great Depression to the Great RecessionFED

Unconventional Monetary Policy Measures and Inflation ExpectationsFED

Personal Income increased 0.4% in April, Spending decreased slightly – Bill McBride
US consumer spending disappoints in April, but income rises – TF
U.S. consumer spending flat, inflation pressures muted – Reuters
Inflation Misses Fed’s 2% Target for 36th Straight Month – WSJ
ISM confirms rebound in US growth – Danske Bank
ISM manufacturing hits 3-month high of 52.8 – TF
ISM Manufacturing index increased to 52.8 in May – Bill McBride

5 Things to Watch at This Week’s OPEC MeetingWSJ

What's on tap for central banks in June?TF
The FOMC and ECB's governing councils both meet this month, but not much is expected to come of it. The former is inching towards a rate hike while the latter has both disinflation and Greece to worry about.


Daily Central BanksWSJ
Hilsenrath’s Take: Easy Money Finds its Way into Energy * For Fed, Dollar’s Strength Complicates Rate-Hike Calculus * U.S. Economy Contracted in First Quarter, For Now * PBOC Sees Increased Downward Pressure on China’s Economy

Daily MacroWSJ
The question of the week is will Greece be able to make its EUR300 million payment to the IMF Fund on Friday...But even if the Syriza government manages to make this week’s payment, there’s another EUR343 million that falls due next week and another the week after.

Morning MoneyBeat EuropeWSJ
Morning MoneyBeat USWSJ

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Global DailyABN AMRO
Jump in inflation in various states points to consensus-beating rise in eurozone inflation * ECB accelerates QE only modestly in May – sharper frontloading seen in June * US consumer spending, weaker than expected, but manufacturing surveys firm

Euro rates updateNordea

Lower yields, stronger EUR ahead of today’s ISM: ISM and German inflation seen up * Falling Bund yields hit QE starting point * EUR/USD strengthening breaking 1.1 intraday

Morning MarketsTF
Spanish growth has been a key component of the Eurozone's recovery, with the fourth-largest EU economy posting impressive GDP and retail spending figures. Will today's PMI print continue the bullish run?

Daily FX CommentMarc Chandler
Dollar Remains Firm at Start of June

Daily ShotTF
Here are some not too hopeful signs for emerging markets. The largest equity market outflows are coming from Latin America, where the Mexican peso and Brazilian real are under pressure, and where Venezuela is in desperate need of a bailout. Elsewhere, China’s services sector and South Korea’s manufacturing sector are feeling the heat.’

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Merkel: Treaty change is not totally impossible * French Economy Minister hints at need for EU Treaty change “in due time” * Cameron warned that superficial renegotiation will prompt calls for second referendum * Greek Prime Minister blames “absurd proposals” from creditors for lack of agreement * Renzi’s party holds its ground in Italian regional elections, but suffers vote losses

Brussels PlaybookPolitico

Futures Flat With Greece In The Spotlight; China Boomerangs Higher

FX UpdateTF
This week is full of anticipation as we look towards the latest set of important US data, culminating with Friday’s employment report. Meanwhile, Greece headlines could dog EURUSD traders all week and Wednesday sees an important ECB meeting.

From the FloorTF
Oil prices are swinging nicely into line for Opec just before its pivotal meeting Friday. is it time to acknowledge that the cartel has got it exactly right on its controversial supply and rule strategy?