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EUROPE
The
Juncker fund: EU shows the money – Politico
Krugman:
Northern Discomfort
– NYT
Krugman:
The Finnish Disease
– NYT
IMF
criticises EU debt and deficit rules – FT
EZ
fundamentals no. 1: Potential growth important for bond yields – Danske
Bank
French
Unemployment Surges By Most In 7 Months To New Record High – ZH
GREECE
Greek Talks
With Creditors Deepen as Payment Clock Ticks – BB
Hans-Werner
Sinn: Varoufakis’s Great Game – Project
Syndicate
GS: Greek
Default, Deposit Blocks, New Government May Be Necessary To End Impasse – ZH
What Would
Greek Capital Controls Look Like? – BB
EUROPEAN
CENTRAL BANK
Draghi
Deflation Relief Means Little With Greek Threat Unsolved – BB
ECB
preview: More boring than last time – Nordea
The absence
of big news will not make this week’s ECB meeting uninteresting. Draghi is set
to emphasize once more the sizable easing the ECB is providing, and confirm the
more flexible nature of the purchases over the coming months. The message will leave core yields free to
fall back further and the euro to weaken.
Policies
working, ECB must persist with purchase programs: Constancio – Reuters
Press
release: TARGET2 turnover stable in 2014 – ECB
Publication:
TARGET Annual Report 2014 – ECB
Bank bias
in Europe: effects on systemic risk and growth – ECB
Real estate
markets and macroprudential policy in Europe – ECB
UNITED STATES
Bond
Market’s Fading Inflation View Seen Undercutting Job Gains – BB
Money
and Velocity During Financial Crisis: From the Great Depression to the Great
Recession – FED
Unconventional
Monetary Policy Measures and Inflation Expectations – FED
DATA
Personal
Income increased 0.4% in April, Spending decreased slightly – Bill
McBride
US consumer
spending disappoints in April, but income rises – TF
U.S.
consumer spending flat, inflation pressures muted – Reuters
Inflation
Misses Fed’s 2% Target for 36th Straight Month – WSJ
ISM
manufacturing hits 3-month high of 52.8 – TF
ISM
Manufacturing index increased to 52.8 in May – Bill
McBride
OTHER
5 Things
to Watch at This Week’s OPEC Meeting – WSJ
What's
on tap for central banks in June? – TF
The FOMC
and ECB's governing councils both meet this month, but not much is expected to
come of it. The former is inching towards a rate hike while the latter has both
disinflation and Greece to worry about.
PURCHASING MANAGER INDICES
REGULARS
Daily
Central Banks – WSJ
Hilsenrath’s
Take: Easy Money Finds its Way into Energy * For Fed, Dollar’s Strength
Complicates Rate-Hike Calculus * U.S. Economy Contracted in First Quarter, For
Now * PBOC Sees Increased Downward Pressure on China’s Economy
Daily
Macro – WSJ
The
question of the week is will Greece be able to make its EUR300 million payment
to the IMF Fund on Friday...But even if the Syriza government manages to make
this week’s payment, there’s another EUR343 million that falls due next week
and another the week after.
Morning
MoneyBeat Europe – WSJ
Danske
Daily – Danske
Bank
Global
Daily – ABN AMRO
Jump in
inflation in various states points to consensus-beating rise in eurozone
inflation * ECB accelerates QE only modestly in May – sharper frontloading seen
in June * US consumer spending, weaker than
expected, but manufacturing surveys firm
Euro
rates update – Nordea
Eye-Opener – Nordea
Lower
yields, stronger EUR ahead of today’s ISM: ISM and German inflation seen up * Falling
Bund yields hit QE starting point * EUR/USD strengthening breaking 1.1 intraday
Morning
Markets – TF
Spanish
growth has been a key component of the Eurozone's recovery, with the
fourth-largest EU economy posting impressive GDP and retail spending figures.
Will today's PMI print continue the bullish run?
Daily FX
Comment – Marc
Chandler
Dollar
Remains Firm at Start of June
Daily
Shot – TF
Here are
some not too hopeful signs for emerging markets. The largest equity market
outflows are coming from Latin America, where the Mexican peso and Brazilian
real are under pressure, and where Venezuela is in desperate need of a bailout.
Elsewhere, China’s services sector and South Korea’s manufacturing sector are
feeling the heat.’
Daily
Press Summary – Open
Europe
Merkel:
Treaty change is not totally impossible * French Economy Minister hints at need
for EU Treaty change “in due time” * Cameron warned that superficial
renegotiation will prompt calls for second referendum * Greek Prime Minister
blames “absurd proposals” from creditors for lack of agreement * Renzi’s party
holds its ground in Italian regional elections, but suffers vote losses
Brussels
Playbook – Politico
US Open – ZH
Futures
Flat With Greece In The Spotlight; China Boomerangs Higher
FX
Update – TF
This week
is full of anticipation as we look towards the latest set of important US data,
culminating with Friday’s employment report. Meanwhile, Greece headlines could dog
EURUSD traders all week and Wednesday sees an important ECB meeting.
From the
Floor – TF
Oil prices
are swinging nicely into line for Opec just before its pivotal meeting Friday.
is it time to acknowledge that the cartel has got it exactly right on its
controversial supply and rule strategy?