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Wednesday, June 17

17th Jun - Fed slowly for Sep hike, as expected

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The miraculous story of IcelandWaPo
You just have to get the big question right—what currency should I use?—and you'll have a decent enough recovery. The right monetary policy, in other words, can cover up a lot of mistakes. The question now is what Greece thinks of this.

If Greece can wreck it, how strong was euro in the first place?The Independent
Leaving the euro would be a much better option for Greece. But politics points in one direction, economics in another

Finland Economic Outlook: Recovery will have to waitNordea
2015 will be the fourth consecutive year without growth in the Finnish economy. The economy has again been in a slight decline since last fall, so the pick-up in exports during this year will not be enough to turn growth positive. The growth forecasts for this year and the next have been revised downwards. GDP is expected to contract 0.2% in 2015 and grow 1.0% in 2016.

Read Commission’s lips: Pay more taxesPolitico
The European Commission is taking aim at corporate tax avoidance in the EU with a politically ambitious set of proposals it says would make it tougher for multinational companies to take advantage of legal loopholes.

Another turn for the worse in Greek crisis – Politico
Bank of Greece Issues Grexit Warning, in Move Certain to Intensify Bank Run – Yves Smith
The ins and the outs of the ins and outs of GreecePolemic’s Pains
Grexit – what if? Summer crunch time is near - but no solution this week – Danske Bank
Greece can give ground but no more pension cuts – Reuters
Greece's future in EU in doubt if talks fail, central bank warns – Reuters
What happens next if Greece defaults on IMF? – Reuters
Debt Truth Committee Preliminary Findings – Hellenic Parliament
Committee Just Declared All Debt To The Troika "Illegal, Illegitimate, And Odious" – ZH
EU confronts Greek legal puzzle – Politico
Key dates on the road to a possible Grexit – FT
Tsipras Vows to Reject Unfair Deal as EU Braces for Collapse – BB
Contagion Is Back as Greece Risks Trump QE on Europe’s Periphery – BB

Should ECB End This Crisis Fighting Policy?WSJ

Euro area: Contagion or just volatility?Nordea
Greece-related worries have come back to haunt the markets, and this time the worries look much more real than has been the case in general recently. Bond market spreads have seen huge volatility, and this volatility has not been limited to the Periphery. The volatility will no doubt continue in the coming days and weeks, but another sovereign debt crisis remains only a distant possibility. The Euro area has the tools to prevent another explosion in bond yields, even in the case of a Grexit.

UK: Highest wage growth since the beginning of 2009 – Danske Bank
Bank of England Sees Faster Wage Growth – WSJ
Great Graphic: US and UK Wages – Marc Chandler
Annual inflation up to 0.3% in the euro area – Eurostat

Statement – FED
Projections – FED
FOMC Projections and Press Conference – Bill McBride
FOMC Forecasts Improvement, Weaker Inflation, Sets Tone For Sep Hike – ZH
Broad Decline In "Dot Plots" Suggest Fed Rate Hike Confidence Shaky – ZH
Fed Cuts 2015 Growth Outlook, Officials Still Favor 2015 Rate Rise – WSJ
How the Fed Statement Is Moving Markets in 4 Charts – WSJ
How the June Statement Changed from April – WSJ
Fed says U.S. economy still strong enough to handle rate hike – Reuters
Federal Reserve: Rate hike likely before year-end – WaPo
FOMC Sticks to Its Course – Marc Chandler
Economists React to the Fed’s June Statement: ‘Mixed Messages’ – WSJ
Yellen Explains Why Everything Will Be Awesome In The Future - Live Feed – ZH
US Macro Live, Yellen presser edition – FT
Fed lift-off still likely in September – Nordea

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Hilsenrath’s Take: U.S. Productivity Slowdown Lurks as Wildcard on Fed Meeting Day * Some of the Fed’s Dots Will Be More Equal Than Others * Fed Seeks Feedback on ‘Stress Tests’ * Greek Central Bank Warns of ‘Uncontrollable Crisis’ if Bailout Talks Fail * Bank of England Sees Faster Wage Growth

Daily MacroWSJ
Greece, Fed Keep Investors on Tenterhooks

Morning MoneyBeat Asia WSJ
U.S. Stocks Rise

Morning MoneyBeat EuropeWSJ
Can the Fed Wrest Attention from Greece?

Morning MoneyBeat USWSJ
What Investors Are Trying to Glean From the Fed

Danske Daily Danske Bank

Global DailyABN AMRO
Yellen tiptoes to rate hike * FOMC statement set to adopt more positive tone on economy… * … paving the way for a rate hike in September * Economic sentiment in Germany hit by Greece and higher bond yields

Euro rates updateNordea

Fed to signal rate hike in September ”Graccident” worries boosting bonds while stocks don’t care Greece’s PM Tsipras is hurling insults

Morning MarketsTF
The big news is never the only news, and today's FOMC meeting must contend with Greek tensions, UK jobless data and a New Zealand GDP update for investor attention. Who are we kidding, though? Barring a last-minute meltdown on the part of, say, Alexis Tsipras (or UK employment?), the Fed remains the one to watch.

Daily FX CommentMarc Chandler
Sterling Steals Some of Fed's Spotlight

Daily ShotTF
Only few Fond managers expect a Grexit. While the situation surrounding Greece remains unclear, recent data suggests the core of Europe is in a relatively good shape.

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Greece exchanges barbs with creditors as deal looks distant

Brussels PlaybookPolitico

Futures Rebound As Yellen's Market-Lifting Track Record Offsets Greek Gloom


FX Update TF
The market is expecting very little from tonight’s FOMC, meaning that it will be very easy to surprise this market, especially on the hawkish side. Still, it is more likely that the reaction function will be dominated by sentiment rather than any new rhetorical hints from Yellen and company.

From the FloorTF
Greece may shout for attention in the way that only Greece can, but really, all eyes tonight are on the FOMC and what sort of timeline it may tentatively hint at for that much-talked about rate hike.

Nordea päivittää Suomi-ennusteen tänään | Iso-Britannian inflaatio kiihtyi nollan yläpuolelle | Fedin kokous on luvassa tänään

Kauas elpyminen karkaaNordea
Nordea synkkänä: Suomelle neljäs peräkkäinen vuosi ilman talouskasvuaVerkkouutiset

”Ei hyvältä näytä” – Suomen velkaantuminen jatkuuVerkkouutiset
Valtiovarainministeriö ennustaa Suomen julkisen velan kasvavan. Vienti piristyy vasta vuosina 2016 ja 2017.

Neuvo Ruotsista: Älkää leikatko nytKL
SEB:n pääekonomisti Robert Bergqvist varoittaa julkisen talouden leikkauksista keskellä taantumaa.

Komissio tekee uuden ehdotuksen EU:n yhtenäisestä yritysveropohjastaVerkkouutiset
Euroopan komissio haluaa uudistaa vaiheittain yritysverotusta Euroopan unionissa veronkierron torjumiseksi ja verotulojen turvaamiseksi.

Suomen kokoiseen osavaltioon tuli 100 000 somalia - mitä tapahtui sen jälkeen?Verkkouutiset
Harvemmin uutisissa käsitelty somalien virta Yhdysvaltoihin saa huomiota maan maahanmuuttopolitiikkaa pilkkaavassa kirjassa.

Ei pakkokiintiöille – Vain 10 EU-maata 28:sta kannattaa taakanjakoaSuomen Uutiset