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Thursday, June 4

4th Jun - Greece close to edge

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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The euro tabooPolitico
The euro has long been too weak for Germany and too strong for Southern Europe, including France. Instead of facilitating the convergence of European economies, the EMU has only widened the competitiveness gap between member states.

European politicians begin to see need for flexible EU, but remain confused about how to achieve itOpen Europe
The upcoming publication of the Four Presidents' Report on the future of the Eurozone is helping focus minds. Politicians across Europe acknowledge the need for a more flexible EU allowing for different levels of integration, but their ideas are still quite confused.

Priorities for euro area governance reformsBruegel
How to establish a stable basis for renewed growth and employment

Faith in EU is Stronger Than You Might SuspectMarc Chandler
The latest survey results from Pew Research Center suggests that support for the European project is not as weak as this conventional narrative suggests.

President Says Referendum on Czech Euro Entry Date Possible BB
The Czech Republic can hold a referendum on the date of euro adoption but not on whether the country should join or not, President Milos Zeman said.

UK: No change in monetary policy in JuneDanske Bank
What does Argentina 2001 tell us about Greece...? We must let it go – TF
Tsipras to resume creditor talks on Friday – FT
Tsipras defiant as he braces for key meeting with creditors – FT
Here's What Defaults Did to Other Countries as Greece Teeters – BB

Draghi Volley to Market Ricochets as ECB Eyes Rates to Come – BB
ECB: Still a looong way to go –not the time to discuss exit strategies – Nordea
Draghi should have come out swinging – TF
What the ECB's inflation forecast means for EURUSD – TF
The ECB's roar is underwhelming – TF

5 Things to Watch in the May Jobs ReportWSJ

2015 Article IV Consultation with USA - Concluding StatementIMF
IMF Slashes US Growth Forecasts, Demands Fed Stay On Hold For Another YearZH
IMF warns Fed to hold fire on rate riseFT

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Blackstone’s Take: Has Mario Draghi Lost His Touch? * U.S. Workers Ask: Where’s My Raise? * Bullard: Appropriate to Think Fed Will Wait to Raise Rates * German Bonds, Europe Stocks Battered a Day After Draghi Comments * Bank of Japan’s Kuroda Channels Peter Pan’s Happy Thoughts

Daily MacroWSJ
The rise in bond yields that Draghi unleashed Wednesday morning is having widespread ramifications across the world. It has shown up in a selloff in Asian government bonds such as Singapore’s and in some wild, rollercoaster-like trading in China. Now, with Europe back open again, the contagion is spreading to equities, where a sea of red is seen across trading screens, suggesting a generalized rise in risk premiums.

Morning MoneyBeat AsiaWSJ
Morning MoneyBeat EuropeWSJ
Morning MoneyBeat USWSJ

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

Draghi firmly dismisses QE tapering * All QE gains now wiped out on Bunds * Rate differential argument against the EUR fading

Morning MarketsTF
It was over before it started: overnight, flat retail sales data and a poor trade deficit print saw the Aussie give up much of its recent gains. Meanwhile, both bonds and crude oil are selling off across world markets. On the upside? A Greek deal appears to be imminent.

Daily FX CommentMarc Chandler
US is not Driving Dollar

Daily Shot – TF
Bond markets reacted aggressively to yesterday's European Central Bank meeting, with an already-steep downturn in German bunds plunging toward the largest two-day decline seen in nearly two decades.

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Another late night meeting fails to find agreement on Greece * Leader of centre-right group in the European Parliament says Cameron’s EU reform plans are “in our interest” * Positive view of EU plunges dramatically in Germany * Portugal’s ruling coalition envisages constitutional debt brake * EU likely to roll over sanctions on Russia as fresh fighting erupts in Eastern Ukraine * ECB single supervisor not considering changes to deferred tax assets use as capital *

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Volatility Explodes: China Crashes Then Soars; Bund Tumble Continues With Yield Touching 0.99%
From the FloorTF
The news coming out pre- the Opec meeting in Vienna indicates more – and not less – supply, which the market has been taking negatively. The WTI crude price has moved back below $60. And the current weakness of the dollar is putting further downwards pressure on the commodity.

EKP:llä kuljettavana vielä piiiitkä matka | Korot nousivat Draghin puheen myötä | Suomen BKT-luku julkaistaan aamulla

Henri Myllyniemi: Saksa ja Ranska: euromaille yhteinen valtiovarainministeriöUS
Hallitusohjelma, sijoitukset ja euron vakausRoger Wessman

Roger Wessman: Hallitusohjelma säästäjän näkökulmastaOdin

Kansantaloudellinen aikakauskirja 2/2015Taloustieteellinen yhdistys
Bruttokansantuote väheni 0,1 prosenttia edellisestä neljänneksestä – Tilastokeskus
Finland: Recession or depression, maybe? – Nordea