Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter
EUROPE
Macropru
in the Eurozone – vox
There is a
broad consensus that financial supervision ought to include a macroprudential
perspective that focuses on the stability of the entire financial system. This
column presents and critically evaluates the newly-created macroprudential
framework in the euro area, with a particular focus on Germany. It argues that,
while based on the right principles, the EU framework grants supervisors a high
degree of discretion that entails the risk of limited commitment and excessive
fine-tuning. Further, monetary policy should not ignore financial stability
considerations and expect macroprudential policy to do the job alone.
The fiscal
rules of the EU have undergone much-needed improvements in recent years, but
much more needs to be done. In addition to suffering from a lack of clarity on
key issues, EU fiscal policy remains overly focused on short-term goals,
reflected in its needless emphasis on nominal deficit targets within annual
budget cycles.
EZ macro
2: Output gap will close quickly - implications for the ECB – Danske
Bank
GREECE
Why Greece
might still choose to leave the euro – FT
Oh dear,
Professor Sinn...... – Frances
Coppola
Tsipras
heads to Brussels as talks quicken – Politico
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
Introductory Statement – ECB
Eurosystem
staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area – ECB
5
Highlights of Mario Draghi’s June Presser – WSJ
ECB
Cautiously Optimistic that Worst is Behind EMU – Marc
Chandler
Draghi: ECB
could step up QE if necessary – ABN
AMRO
ECB
meeting: no new signals - bond sell-off continues – Danske
Bank
Bunds and
Euro Tied at the Hip? – Marc
Chandler
Mario
Draghi Pushes Bunds Out of Bed – WSJ
ECB meeting
- Taper tempering – Carsten
Brzeski
DATA
Euro area
unemployment rate at 11.1% - Eurostat
Volume of
retail trade up by 0.7% in euro area – Eurostat
Euro data
wrap: plenty of good news – Berenberg
Euro area
retail sales bounce back while unemployment drops – TF
UNITED STATES
ISM
non-manufacturing misses, drops to 13-month low in May – TF
ISM
Non-Manufacturing Index decreased to 55.7% in May - Bill
McBride
ISM
Services Plunges To 13 Month Lows As Post-Weather Bounceback Fades – ZH
Trade
Deficit Shrinks 19% In April Driven By Drop In Imports – ZH
PURCHASING MANAGER INDICES
REGULARS
Daily
Central Banks – WSJ
Hilsenrath’s
Take: Readers Sound Off About Consumer Spending Sluggishness * Fed’s Brainard:
More Economic Progress Needed Before Rates Rise * Five Key Points to Watch in
the ECB’s June Presser * BOJ Shirai: Probability of Considering Extra Easing Is
Low for Now * Hungary’s Central Bank Forces Lenders to
Fund Government
Daily
Macro – WSJ
With
Greece’s deposit-hemorrhaging banks on life support, a European Central Bank
meeting Wednesday that would normally be focused on broad monetary policy
matters will likely revolve around how to handle the financial crisis in that
country as a deadline for it to pay the IMF looms.
Morning
MoneyBeat Asia – WSJ
Morning
MoneyBeat US – WSJ
Danske
Daily – Danske
Bank
Global
Daily – ABN
AMRO
Jump in
eurozone core inflation pushed up government bond yields and the euro * We
expect the ECB to cool exit talk on Wednesday, but tone could change early in
2016 * Eurozone SMEs see rising availability of external finance adding
strengthening outlook
Euro
rates update – Nordea
Eye-Opener – Nordea
Rates sell
off more, but market sceptical on Euro-area inflation: the euro strengthens,
today the ECB * Greece: Are two plans better than one? * US April trade balance
to stabilise
Morning
Markets – TF
The
Eurozone is once again the epicentre of FX market focus as the bank's governing
body convenes for its latest monetary policy decision. Elsewhere, the
Eurozone's retail sales numbers are expected to pass the test regarding a
rebound but it will be a close call. Across the Atlantic, US reports on
employment and the services sector will be closely read for guidance ahead of
this Friday's jobs report.
Daily FX
Comment – Marc
Chandler
Getting
Blood from a Turnip: Potential Greek Deal Overshadows ECB Meeting
Daily
Shot – TF
The
Eurozone seems to be the epicenter of global market volatility, sending shock
waves through the fixed income markets.
Daily
Press Summary – Open
Europe
Brussels
Playbook – Politico
US Open – ZH
Futures
Rise, Bund Rout Pauses On "Cautious Optimism" Ahead Of Greek Endgame
FX Update – TF
Heavy
positioning has aggravated the squeeze higher in euro pairs, but the main
culprit may be the aggravated selloff in European sovereign bond markets.
Draghi will want to impress the market with very strong rhetoric and possibly
action today as sovereign market instability is totally unacceptable for the
ECB and its QE programme.
From the
Floor – TF
The sharp
spike in bond yields of the last 48 hours, a risk-off mode in equities and a
strengthening EURUSD are exactly the reverse of what the European Central Bank
had hoped for when it unleashed its quantitative easing bazooka. Will president
Mario Draghi unleash the full power of 'front-loading' today?
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Vaalien jälkeinen helpotus liukenee Briteissä | Euroalueen
inflaatio odotuksia korkeampi | Korot nousivat USA:ssa ja Euroopassa
Henri Myllyniemi: Hallitus leikkaa ja muut kitisee – US
Kaksi kovaa keinoa iskeä ay-liikkeeseen – TalSa
Uudella hallituksella on monta kikkaa, joilla se voi
nakertaa ammattiyhdistysliikkeen voimaa. Taloussanomat kysyi asiantuntijoilta,
mikä satuttaisi ay-liikettä eniten.
Jan Hurri: Suomen piilovelka kasvaa jo Kreikan malliin
– TalSa
Suomessa tuskin on aihetta epäillä samanlaista valtion
velkatilastojen vääristelyä kuin Kreikassa ennen kriisiä. Silti Suomenkin
valtion velkavastuut kasvavat jo täyttä häkää Kreikan malliin – valtion taseen
ja virallisten velkatilastojen ulkopuolella.