Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter
What is it about German economics? – Simon Wren-Lewis
Gideon Rachman: If Europe cannot bend it will break – FT
The continent’s inability to respond to changed circumstances is truly alarming
ECB’s Mersch Downplays Danger From European Government Bond Yields’ Rise – WSJ
Cameron: pursue an ambitious plan for reform at the June EU summit – Open Europe
Majors & Scandies: FX forecast – Nordea
Our general story for the macro economy and central banks remains intact. We have thus kept most of our forecasts unchanged. We have merely decided to hike the near-term EUR/USD forecast a touch reflecting the pair’s recent correlation with yield spreads and the high uncertainty on bond markets.
EM FX: Financial forecasts – Nordea
EM FX is weakening in line with our forecasts, and we believe more general weakness is likely ahead of the first Fed hike. Individual country characteristics will be more important going into next year.
We have kept most of our forecasts unchanged. We decided to keep our EUR/TRY forecast unchanged with risks skewed to the upside despite Sunday’s election result. Recently, we added 50 bp of rate hikes to the Brazilian key rate, and lifted our short-term USD/INR forecast.
Majors & Scandies: Central bank and rates forecasts – Nordea
Following the recent jump we expect a renewed fall in EUR yields over the summer, followed by a very gradual increase throughout the remainder of the forecast horizon. The expected drop in German yields over the next few months should support US bonds as well in the near term. Longer out, however, the Fed starting to normalise policy and an economy showing increasing signs of price pressures favour gradually higher USD yields.
Daily Central Banks – WSJ
Hilsenrath’s Take: Memories of 2013 ‘Taper Tantrum’ Return * Kocherlakota to Join University of Rochester * ECB’s Mersch: Government Bond Yields Not a Threat * U.K. to Unveil Financial Market Reforms * China Inflation Eases Amid Weak Economy
Daily Macro – WSJ
With the Greece drama seemingly subsiding as the Mediterranean country and its creditors talk about extending the bailout for another nine months, things have quieted a bit in global markets. The most telling news of the day is that showing that deflationary pressure in China is strengthening.
Morning MoneyBeat Asia – WSJ
Morning MoneyBeat Europe – WSJ
Morning MoneyBeat US – WSJ
Danske Daily – Danske Bank
Global Daily – ABN AMRO
ECB weekly purchase data show tentative signs of firmer pace…signalling QE likely to be stepped up in June, while net supply will fade * Meanwhile, German economy starts Q2 on a strong note
Eye-Opener – Nordea
More US labour market strength today, but markets may be waiting for Thursday * German 10Y steady before another run to 1% * FX in range until second part of the week
Morning Markets – TF
China's inflation rate has dropped, according to official data released this morning, raising concerns about growing deflationary pressures as the economy cools.
Daily FX Comment – Marc Chandler
Dollar Trying to Stabilize after Giving Back Jobs-Inspired Gains
Daily Shot – TF
China's love affair with stocks shows no sign of letting up ahead of an important decision tomorrow on whether to add the country's stocks to the MSCI Emerging Market Index.
Daily Press Summary – Open Europe
Greece submits new proposal to creditors including demands for further funding * Cameron: Too early to say definitively whether collective responsibility will apply during EU referendum * Four Presidents’ Report on Eurozone integration envisages independent fiscal watchdog and European Monetary Fund * No decision on EU refugee plan until September * Helle Thorning-Schmidt’s centre-left bloc in the ascendency ahead of Danish elections * EU and US warn Kremlin of further sanctions * IMF raises growth forecast for the Spanish economy * European Commission expands tax rulings probe * Romanian Prime Minister embroiled in corruption charges faces calls to resign
Brussels Playbook – Politico
US Open – ZH
European Stocks Suffer Longest Losing Stretch In 2015; US Futures Down
FX Update – TF
A broad equity market selloff is the possibly the main culprit behind a weak greenback, with most of that weakness concentrated against EUR, CHF and JPY. As long as the market mood remains sour, the risk of a weak USD and possibly even weaker commodity currencies may persist.
From the Floor – TF
China's stock market bubble could be a boon for gold if it bursts, while elsewhere, it's the weakening USD that's got markets flustered. When it comes to bonds, European yields are climbing higher led by the periphery.
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Ekonomisti voittaa tilastot | Korot nousivat loivasti euroalueella | Saksasta hyvät vientiluvut