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Monday, June 15

15th Jun - Waiting for Fed & Greece



Previously on MoreLiver’s:


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EUROPE
Nominal devaluation and real wages - Alberto Bagnai

Tim Worstall: Not Just Greece, Everyone Should Leave The Euro; There's No Point In Having It At All – Forbes

Spain’s Bonds Decline as Greek Stalemate Fuels Contagion Selloff – BB

After Greece, What Keeps European Officials Up at Night? – Marc Chandler

David Cameron and the EU’s Waterloo – Bruegel
UK’s move away from the EU will spur ever louder calls for change elsewhere

Introductory statement by Mario Draghi – ECB
Hearing at the European Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee

Euro area international trade in goods surplus €24.9 bn – Eurostat
Euro area trade surplus jumps to record-high in April – TF

  GREECE
Greece’s new plan: leaked weekend counterproposal – FT
ECB’s Praet: Greece Has Choices Over Its Reforms – WSJ
Peripheral Bond Risk Surges As Greek Banks Collapse – ZH
End “Extend and Pretend” With Greece – Project Syndicate
A credible deal will require difficult decisions by all sides – vox
Some of the Greek proposals for saving money – FT


UNITED STATES
FOMC preview – Danske Bank
Mixed signals but Yellen should be more confident

Fedspeak Cheatsheet – WSJ
Fed Officials a Bit More Upbeat Ahead of Policy Meeting This Week

  DATA
NAHB: Builder Confidence increased to 59 in June – Bill McBride
Fed: Industrial Production decreased 0.2% in May – Bill McBride
US Industrial Production Weakest Since January 2010 – ZH


OTHER
KVP's Macro Take: Grexit has a Jurassic dimension – TF
The US Citi Economic Surprise Index is finally trending back up - which is a “a phew” for those (like me) in the hiking camp. But what could possibly throw a curve ball at the Fed's plan? It's Greece, of course, the country that nobody can predict will be in or out of the Eurozone

Yield Forecast Update: Perfect bond storm to ease – Danske Bank

FX Forecast Update - Final stage of USD rocket – Danske Bank


REGULARS


Daily Central Banks – WSJ
Hilsenrath’s Take: For Clues on Number of 2015 Rate Hikes, Watch the Fed’s Dots * Fed Hones Tricky Message as It Nears Boosting Rates * Fed Officials Cheat Sheet * EU-Greece Talks on Bailout Break Down, Setting Up Showdown * Bank of Russia Cuts Key Rate To 11.5%

Daily Macro – WSJ
A weak start of the week for global equities is being blamed on a breakdown in negotiations between Greece and its creditors. Maybe. After all, Italian and Spanish sovereign debt underperformed in early trading Monday, suggesting investors are building in a slight contagion risk premium.

Morning MoneyBeat Asia – WSJ
U.S. Stocks Lightly Jogging in Place

Morning MoneyBeat Europe – WSJ
Stocks Tipped to Wilt as More Greek Talks End Fruitlessly

Morning MoneyBeat US – WSJ
The Fed’s Back in the Spotlight

Danske Daily – Danske Bank

Euro rates update – Nordea

Eye-Opener – Nordea
Plan B for Greece For EUR rates, the best place to go long is the short end Easing priced out of EUR/SEK

Morning Markets – TF
The trading week opens with Greece on the brink, EU trade data ready to bolster the case for Europe's recovery and a slew of afternoon reports from the US to tell investors whether that September rate hike is likely to materialise.

Daily FX Comment – Marc Chandler
Dollar Gains Limited Despite Greek Talk Failure and FOMC Looming

Daily Shot – TF
The markets are definitely reacting negatively to the lack of a deal between Greece and its creditors.

Daily Press Summary – Open Europe
European politicians round on Greece as talks break down once again * Cameron to argue that free movement reform will reduce ‘brain drain’ * Big asset managers planning to leave UK in case of Brexit * Renzi: We have a ‘Plan B’ ready if EU doesn’t show solidarity on refugees * US House of Representatives votes down package aimed at facilitating trade deals including TTIP * Spain’s chances of landing Eurogroup job are fading * German industrialists raise concerns over ECB bond-buying

Brussels Playbook – Politico

US Open – ZH
European Stocks Slide, Greece Tumbles But US BTFDers Emerge After Collapse In Greek Bailout Talks

Frontrunning – ZH

FX Update – TF
This week has four central bank meetings, two central bank meeting minutes, and a potentially pivotal Euro Group meeting Thursday/Friday that may give a fuller sense of whether Greece will give in to its creditors’ demands ahead of the effective June 30 deadline.

From the Floor – TF
Bonds have rebounded after yesterday's dramatic withdrawal by the IMF from the Greek debt talks.


FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Fedin itseluottamus kasvaa | Venäjä: Koronleikkaus on laiha lohtu | Keskuspankit valokeilassa tällä viikolla

  DATA
Vaihtotase alijäämäinen Q1 – Tilastokeskus
Teollisuuden liikevaihto Q1 supistui vajaat 3% YoY – Tilastokeskus
Rakennusyritysten liikevaihto Q1 +5,1% YoY – Tilastokeskus
Palvelujen liikevaihto Q1 +4,4% YoY – Tilastokeskus
Koko kaupan myynti huhtikuussa -3,3% YoY – Tilastokeskus
Kansantalouden tuotanto laski huhtikuussa – Tilastokeskus
Inflaatio toukokuussa -0,0% – Tilastokeskus