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Monday, June 15

15th Jun - Waiting for Fed & Greece

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Nominal devaluation and real wages - Alberto Bagnai

Tim Worstall: Not Just Greece, Everyone Should Leave The Euro; There's No Point In Having It At All – Forbes

Spain’s Bonds Decline as Greek Stalemate Fuels Contagion Selloff BB

After Greece, What Keeps European Officials Up at Night?Marc Chandler

David Cameron and the EU’s WaterlooBruegel
UK’s move away from the EU will spur ever louder calls for change elsewhere

Introductory statement by Mario DraghiECB
Hearing at the European Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee

Euro area international trade in goods surplus €24.9 bn – Eurostat
Euro area trade surplus jumps to record-high in April – TF

Greece’s new plan: leaked weekend counterproposal – FT
ECB’s Praet: Greece Has Choices Over Its Reforms – WSJ
Peripheral Bond Risk Surges As Greek Banks Collapse – ZH
End “Extend and Pretend” With GreeceProject Syndicate
A credible deal will require difficult decisions by all sides – vox
Some of the Greek proposals for saving money – FT

FOMC preview Danske Bank
Mixed signals but Yellen should be more confident

Fedspeak CheatsheetWSJ
Fed Officials a Bit More Upbeat Ahead of Policy Meeting This Week

NAHB: Builder Confidence increased to 59 in June – Bill McBride
Fed: Industrial Production decreased 0.2% in May – Bill McBride
US Industrial Production Weakest Since January 2010 – ZH

KVP's Macro Take: Grexit has a Jurassic dimensionTF
The US Citi Economic Surprise Index is finally trending back up - which is a “a phew” for those (like me) in the hiking camp. But what could possibly throw a curve ball at the Fed's plan? It's Greece, of course, the country that nobody can predict will be in or out of the Eurozone

Yield Forecast Update: Perfect bond storm to easeDanske Bank

FX Forecast Update - Final stage of USD rocketDanske Bank


Daily Central BanksWSJ
Hilsenrath’s Take: For Clues on Number of 2015 Rate Hikes, Watch the Fed’s Dots * Fed Hones Tricky Message as It Nears Boosting Rates * Fed Officials Cheat Sheet * EU-Greece Talks on Bailout Break Down, Setting Up Showdown * Bank of Russia Cuts Key Rate To 11.5%

Daily MacroWSJ
A weak start of the week for global equities is being blamed on a breakdown in negotiations between Greece and its creditors. Maybe. After all, Italian and Spanish sovereign debt underperformed in early trading Monday, suggesting investors are building in a slight contagion risk premium.

Morning MoneyBeat Asia – WSJ
U.S. Stocks Lightly Jogging in Place

Morning MoneyBeat Europe – WSJ
Stocks Tipped to Wilt as More Greek Talks End Fruitlessly

Morning MoneyBeat USWSJ
The Fed’s Back in the Spotlight

Danske Daily – Danske Bank

Euro rates update – Nordea

Eye-Opener – Nordea
Plan B for Greece For EUR rates, the best place to go long is the short end Easing priced out of EUR/SEK

Morning Markets – TF
The trading week opens with Greece on the brink, EU trade data ready to bolster the case for Europe's recovery and a slew of afternoon reports from the US to tell investors whether that September rate hike is likely to materialise.

Daily FX CommentMarc Chandler
Dollar Gains Limited Despite Greek Talk Failure and FOMC Looming

Daily Shot TF
The markets are definitely reacting negatively to the lack of a deal between Greece and its creditors.

Daily Press Summary Open Europe
European politicians round on Greece as talks break down once again * Cameron to argue that free movement reform will reduce ‘brain drain’ * Big asset managers planning to leave UK in case of Brexit * Renzi: We have a ‘Plan B’ ready if EU doesn’t show solidarity on refugees * US House of Representatives votes down package aimed at facilitating trade deals including TTIP * Spain’s chances of landing Eurogroup job are fading * German industrialists raise concerns over ECB bond-buying

Brussels PlaybookPolitico

US Open ZH
European Stocks Slide, Greece Tumbles But US BTFDers Emerge After Collapse In Greek Bailout Talks


FX UpdateTF
This week has four central bank meetings, two central bank meeting minutes, and a potentially pivotal Euro Group meeting Thursday/Friday that may give a fuller sense of whether Greece will give in to its creditors’ demands ahead of the effective June 30 deadline.

From the FloorTF
Bonds have rebounded after yesterday's dramatic withdrawal by the IMF from the Greek debt talks.

Aamukatsaus Nordea
Fedin itseluottamus kasvaa | Venäjä: Koronleikkaus on laiha lohtu | Keskuspankit valokeilassa tällä viikolla

Vaihtotase alijäämäinen Q1 – Tilastokeskus
Teollisuuden liikevaihto Q1 supistui vajaat 3% YoY – Tilastokeskus
Rakennusyritysten liikevaihto Q1 +5,1% YoY – Tilastokeskus
Palvelujen liikevaihto Q1 +4,4% YoY – Tilastokeskus
Koko kaupan myynti huhtikuussa -3,3% YoY – Tilastokeskus
Kansantalouden tuotanto laski huhtikuussa – Tilastokeskus
Inflaatio toukokuussa -0,0% – Tilastokeskus