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Tuesday, June 16

16th June - Still waiting for Fed & Greece

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Finland pulling slowly out of recession Danske Bank

France’s far right forms bloc in European ParliamentPolitico

Shifting Sentiment in Spain: 2011 vs. 2015; Could an Anti-Euro Party Win the 2015 Spanish National Election?Mish’s

The Danish election: One to watchOpen Europe

Italy and Spain's Premium Over Germany DoublesMarc Chandler

Employment up by 0.1% in euro area and by 0.3% in the EU28 – Eurostat
Consumption per capita varied by almost one to three across EU Member States – Eurostat

Greece will capitulate – Politico
Leaked paper: Should Greece cut defence spending? – FT
Gideon Rachman: Four games the Greeks may be playing – FT
Pensions The Biggest Hurdle In The Bailout Negotiations – ZH
Tony Barber: Leaving Greece to its own devices is not an option – FT
Count-down to Grexit? – Lighthouse Investment Management
What Happens if Greece Misses Payments? – WSJ
Greece: Acropolypse now – Capitalists@Work
Eurozone To Impose Capital Controls On Greece If No Deal By Weekend – ZH
‘Game Over for Greece’ Says Fidelity Worldwide Investment – WSJ
James K. Galbraith: The IMF’s “Tough Choices” on GreeceProject Syndicate
Ashoka Mody: “A Program for Greece: Follow the IMF’s Research” – Econbrowser

ECB’s “whatever it takes” is legal, court rules – Politico
European Court backs ECB – Carsten Brzeski
ECJ approves ECB bond buying programme as expected – Open Europe
Resilience of the euro in the face of the ongoing Greek tragedy – FT
Recent current account developments in euro area countries with large pre-crisis deficits – ECB

Fed Meetings May Be Live, But Here’s Why They’re Unlikely to SurpriseWSJ
5 Things to Watch at This Week’s Fed Meeting WSJ
Janet Yellen's Prediction Last Month Is Already Being VindicatedBB

Possible Fed Moves And Greek Talks Push 10-Year Yields Higher Alpha Now
The markets don’t like uncertainty. Therefore, the prospect of the Federal Reserve moving its overnight rate away from historical lows this year and the ongoing drama over negotiations to prevent a Greek default provided reason for traders to vault yields of the major 10-year Treasurys.

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Blackstone’s Take: ECB Struggles to Stay Neutral in Greek Drama * 5 Things to Watch at This Week’s Fed Meeting * Rules U.S. Exceeded Its Authority in 2008 AIG Rescue * EU Court Declares ECB’s 2012 Bond-Buying Plan Legal * Kuroda Indicates No Intention to Stem Sliding Yen

Daily MacroWSJ
Still No Sign of Greece Deal as IMF Deadline Approaches

Morning MoneyBeat Europe WSJ
Markets Expected to Steady, Greece Newsflow Drives

Morning MoneyBeat US WSJ

Danske Daily Danske Bank

Global DailyABN AMRO
Greece 3 scenarios: main scenario remains that there will be a deal before the end of the month.  An alternative scenario is that Greece misses IMF payments, but reaches a deal soon after.  A Greek exit from the euro is the final, but also the least likely, scenario

Euro rates updateNordea

No new Greek plan expected, planning for state of emergency versus blaming creditors * UK inflation to pick up Returning risk aversion after Greece sends Bund yields lower EUR/USD unmoved

Morning MarketsTF
With a Greece solution still not reached, investors can look to numbers giving hints on the status of the UK, German and the US economies.

Daily FX CommentMarc Chandler
Dollar Bounces Back, but Still Seems Fragile

Daily Shot TF
While everybody is waiting for news from Greece, recent data shows capacity utilization and industrial production in the US recently declined. In the meanwhile the Euro area trade surplus hit a record on soft domestic demand and weak euro.

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe

Brussels PlaybookPolitico

It’s Not Only Greece This Morning.


FX UpdateTF
The Greek standoff remains total as Greece won’t even present a new plan at this week’s Euro Group meeting, as it looks like Greece wants to take the country beyond the brink to test its creditors’ mettle. Elsewhere, low expectations for tomorrow’s FOMC may be justified.

From the Floor TF
Could we really see capital controls in Greece by the weekend or is this "Plan B" just another stake in this highly-charged game of geopolitical poker?

Aamukatsaus Nordea
Euroalueen kasvu kuluttajien armoilla | Kreikka veti euroalueen korkoerot kasvuun | Ruotsin työmarkkinoiden hyvä vire jatkuu

Henri Myllyniemi: Euro on mennyttä päättyi Kreikan kriisi miten tahansaUS