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EUROPE
ECB’s
Mersch Downplays Danger From European Government Bond Yields’ Rise – WSJ
Higher
European Bond Yields No Longer Spell Disaster – BB
They're
being lauded as a sign of a healing economy
The IMF
crisis and how to solve it – Oxford Economics
An
investigation of the IMF’s Greek programme, one of the most credibility-sapping
in its history
The IMF’s
Original Sin in Greece was to let Dominique Strauss-Kahn
hijack the institution to save Europe's banks and the euro when the crisis erupted,
dooming Greece to disaster.
As Greece stumbles towards bankruptcy, a
Eurosceptic party bent on breaking up the euro zone should be enjoying its
golden hour; but instead the Alternative for Germany (AfD) is mired in such bitter
personal feuding it teeters on the verge of collapse itself.
Industrial
Output Rose in April as German Economy Gathered Pace – BB
GREECE
Greece: where do we stand and what to
watch – Bruegel
Greece: The Timeline of a Debt Crisis – WSJ
Cautionary
tales for the gold standard crowd – Cam
Hui
Mohamed El-Erian:
Subplots Cloud Greek Drama – BB
Greece willing to compromise with EU/IMF: government
– Reuters
Paul
Mason: Greece is not Ireland – and it’s not just about the
economics – BBC
UNITED STATES
First
Fed Rate Hike Timing Expectations Plunge To Lowest In 5 Years – ZH
EMPLOYMENT REPORT
Economists
React to the May Jobs Report: ‘Unambiguously Positive’ – WSJ
The May
Jobs Report in 12 Charts – WSJ
Hilsenrath:
Report Likely Keeps Fed on Track for Rate Increase Later This Year – WSJ
Solid
Employment Report – Tim
Duy
Relax, the
jobs recovery is back on track – WaPo
OTHER
Meet the
Wallenbergs – FT
The leaders
of Sweden’s legendary business family, Jacob, Peter and
Marcus oversee an empire worth €250bn
Mohamed
El-Erian: Tug-of-war ahead as central banks seek control – FT
Starting
point of ridiculously low yields has fuelled volatility
Dollar
Drivers – Marc Chandler
ECONOMICS
What the
non-lunatic right believes about macroeconomic policy – Worthwhile
Central
banking: just when you understand it, it changes – FT
Ben
Bernanke: Monetary policy and inequality – Brookings
Amartya
Sen: The economic consequences of austerity – New
Statesman
The
judgements of our financial and political leaders are breathtakingly narrow.
Nobel Prize-winning economist Amartya Sen considers the alternatives.
Austerity
as a Knowledge Transmission Mechanism failure – Simon
Wren-Lewis
When
Should Public Debt Be Reduced? – IMF
We argue
that, for countries with ample fiscal space (little risk of encountering a
fiscal crisis), raising distortive taxes merely to bring the debt down is a
treatment cure that is worse than the disease.
Living with
high debt may be the "optimal policy" for countries such as the UK, Germany and the US, according to IMF economists
REGULARS
Daily
Central Banks – WSJ
Hilsenrath’s
Take: More Evidence of the Weight of China on Global Inflation *May Jobs Report
Likely Keeps Fed on Track * Yellen: Fed Was Advised Not to Fully Comply On
House Leak Probe * Turkey’s Central Bank Moves to Support
Lira * Iceland to Speak on Winding Down Capital Controls
Daily
Macro – WSJ
Japan posted a much bigger revision to
its first-quarter GDP estimate while Germany recorded a solid industrial production
growth number that was even stronger than expected…. Chinese exports again fell
and although its trade surplus rose, that was entirely driven by a very sharp
drop in imports. Meanwhile, the vulnerability of other, smaller emerging
markets in the event that the U.S., eurozone or Japan were to end their monetary
expansion policies was brought home in news
Morning
MoneyBeat Asia – WSJ
Morning
MoneyBeat Europe – WSJ
Danske
Daily – Danske
Bank
Eye-Opener – Nordea
US jobs report surprisingly strong * US
Treasury yields soar, with some more near-term upside left * Setback for
Turkish President Erdogan
Morning
Markets – TF
Another
week and another round of bickering, grandstanding and tense negotiations
between Greece and its creditors. Meanwhile, G7 leaders
have recommended a tough line on Russia and US president Barack Obama and German
chancellor Angela Merkel agree that Greece must implement reforms. In Turkey, the lira has plunged on the shock
news that Recep Tayyip Erdogan failed to secure the expected majority in his
country's parliamentary election.
Daily FX
Comment – Marc
Chandler
Choppy FX Market, Turkey Rivals Greece for Sell-Off
US Open – ZH
Germany Enters Correction; EMs In Longest Losing Streak Since 1990
Routed By Turkey, Obama Turmoils Dollar
FX
Update – TF
After a
strong jobs report on Friday, the USD looks set to gain further ground this
week, though we have the persistent risk of ad hoc Greece headlines that could push the
action either way with no warning.
From the
Floor – TF
The dollar
surged Friday on the back of that stellar NFP print and while it may have taken
something of a breather during the Asian session, the pressure on the euro
looks to be mounting.
Martin
Sandbu’s Free Lunch
– FT
Banking: more
perilous than you thought - why everything you were taught about banks is wrong
and why it matters
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Kilpailukyvyn heikkeneminen kampittaa Kiinaa | USA:n työmarkkinaraportti
odotettua vahvempi | Luvassa inflaatiolukuja Pohjoismaista tällä viikolla
Jan Hurri: Kolme ässää helteeseen: Kreikka-vääntö vasta
alkaa – TalSa
Viime tingan lykkäys Kreikan lainalyhennyksiin antaa taas
pari viikkoa lisäaikaa mutta ei ratkaise kriisiä. Vaikein velkavääntö on vielä edessä
– eikä se koske Kreikka II:n häntiä vaan jopa kymmenien miljardien eurojen
uutta rahoitustukea. Suomen
uudelle hallitukselle on tiedossa tukala kesä.
"Hallitusohjelman päällä roikkuu kysymysmerkki"
– TalSa
Luottoluokittaja odottaa nyt eniten talouskasvun
vauhdittumista, arvioi ekonomisti. Hallitusohjelmakin olisi tosin hyvä saada käytännön
asteelle.
"Ei Suomi pärjää halvan työvoiman maana" – TalSa
Yritykset eivät saa huonompia työntekijöitä, jos työhön
tullaan aiempaa enemmän pelkällä kanditutkinnolla, sanoo EK:n asiantuntija.