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Monday, June 11

11th Jun - US Close: Epic Bail

The evening regulars are here, plus some minor articles - seems everyone has been busy writing about the bailout, because of its apparent impotence in calming the crisis. Subordination, not enough, eyes on Italy, eventual CDS trigger, the ESM as a failure even before it has started, Finland’s demands for collateral and not providing funds to bad banks… the bailout is just so full of holes at the moment. I expect negative mood for the rest of the week, but keep an eye on ECB and possible real plans to address the above issues. For the bailout articles, see Spanish Bailout: The Collection 

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Markets – Between The Hedges
The Closer – alphaville / FT
Market Commentary – A View from My Screens
Tyler’s European Summary – ZH
  From #Spailout To #Spanic
Tyler’s US Summary – ZH
  Gold Pops, Stocks Drop, And Oil Plops

Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
The Euro Crisis Blog – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
European 10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices

The 5 possible parts of a “master plan” to save the euroWonkblog / WP

The euro as ‘EM currency’alphaville / FT
a Nomura note arguing that the euro increasingly trades like an emerging market currency — in an emerging market currency crisis.

Can someone tell this “EU Source” to shut up?alphaville / FT

The ECB and the League of NationsThe World / FT
Central bank’s new HQ is due to open in 2014.

Welcome to the 1930s: possible capital control after GrexitASA

Lombard’s Dumas Says Greek Elections Are Next Big TestBB (mp3)

Arthur Levitt Says U.S. Not Immune to Europe’s WoesBB (mp3)

Carl Weinberg Says Spain Needs to Restructure BondsBB (mp3)

Week 24 stress indicators and three country race commentarySaxo Bank
Steen Jakobsen: and a few notes about what is worrying us. In particular we note how the crisis by the end of this week will be a three country race.

CHF: Systemic risk and the EU debt crisisSaxo Bank
Steen Jakobsen: The chances of the peg at 1.2000 breaking have increased from less than 10 percent to more than 25 percent. Assuming the downside risk is parity (1.0000), the risk of 20 CHF big figures gives a weighted risk of peg-breaking of: 5%  (20 percent move x 25% chance = 5%).

Report to G20 Leaders on Basel III implementation BIS
full pdf and press release

International rules for capital
Do we need international rules for capital controls? This column looks at the different regimes in countries such as Brazil and China and argues that we do.

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