First
impressions: not much will change. EDIT (Updated this, initial reaction bullish, but comments are realizing this is just more muddle-through, and Spain continues to deteriorate, so initial bullishness has eased. It is now down to the G20 and the central banks.
Earlier on
MoreLiver’s
Weekender: Off-TopicWeekender: Sell-Side Research
Greek conservatives to win election: official
projection – Reuters
Greek election gives relief – Danske
Bank (pdf)
Conservatives win Greek elections, seek
coalition – euobserver
Status quo prevails, but crisis is far from
over – Wonkblog
/ WP
New Democracy Wins But May Be Unable to Form
Coalition – Mish’s
New Democracy Leader "Will Honour
Commitments to the EU; Euro Trades Higher; Coalition Review – Mish’s
And Then What? – Krugman / NYT
Greek “final exit polls” suggest a New
Democracy/Pasok coalition – Kiron
Sarkar / The Big Picture
Greek Election: ‘Nothing Has Fundamentally
Changed’ – MarketBeat
/ WSJ
And Now... Let's Play Chicken – Mark Grant / ZH
Pro-Europe Party Wins, but Markets Likely to
Remain Volatile – MarketBeat
/ WSJ
ADDED 18-MAY
Lessons From Sisyphus – TF
Market Advisors
I think the move in the Euro and the muted
reaction in U.S. stocks are both good signs that there is a nice base developing. The
key will be what Europe does next.
Nothing Resolved, and It’s
Irrelevant Anyhow –
MarketBeat
/ WSJ
Metals Rise on Greek Election Results – Market
Beat / WSJ
‘Lehman Moment’ Averted, For
Now – Market
Beat / WSJ
Greek Election Sideshow; Socialists Win
Absolute Majority in France; How Long Will the
Bond Market Celebrate Another Glorious Can-Kicking Exercise? – Mish’s
Returning to the
Unsustainable Status Quo – Economist
Meg
Greece will therefore remain in its downward austerity/recession spiral. As
the government is forced to implement further austerity, social unrest will
rise and opposition to additional retrenchment by MPs will cause the government
to collapse by the end of this year.
The pro-austerity party won, despite their
policy’s lack of success — and lack of historical for theoretical foundation
(it’s contrary to basic economics).
Despite the applause in the banker-dominated news media, it’s unlikely
to work, and every month of delay only makes Greece weaker
SocGen's Take On The Greek Elections And What
Happens Next – ZH
Greek euro exit fears are likely to ease for now, but even in this best case outcome, Greece will continue to struggle to meet programme targets and renegotiation with a possible third programme for Greece will soon have to be addressed. Moreover, this does not solve the fundamental issues weighing on Spain and Italy.
Greek euro exit fears are likely to ease for now, but even in this best case outcome, Greece will continue to struggle to meet programme targets and renegotiation with a possible third programme for Greece will soon have to be addressed. Moreover, this does not solve the fundamental issues weighing on Spain and Italy.
Greece as Victim –
Krugman
/ NYT
The only way the euro might — might — be saved is if the Germans and the European Central Bank realize that they’re the ones who need to change their behavior, spending more and, yes, accepting higher inflation. If not — well, Greece will basically go down in history as the victim of other people’s hubris.
The only way the euro might — might — be saved is if the Germans and the European Central Bank realize that they’re the ones who need to change their behavior, spending more and, yes, accepting higher inflation. If not — well, Greece will basically go down in history as the victim of other people’s hubris.
A moment’s respite in Europe – Macro
Business
The Tiresome Eurozone Soap Opera Has Entered
Re-Runs – of two
minds
A Greek economy run by Brussels will ignore the
lessons of history, leading to more misery
ADDED
A Q&A on Greece's future in the
eurozone in light of the results of yesterday's elections.
And On With The Great Game – Mark Grant / ZH
Greek Election Results: Graphic of the Day – Thomson
Reuters
A vote for misery not disaster – Free
exchange / The Economist
EU’s Rehn Says Reassessment of Greek Situation
Possible – BB (mp3)
Ex-ECB Member Orphanides Says Greek Crisis Is
Not Over – BB (mp3)
ADDED 2
Greek Elections Are No Panacea – The
Daily Capitalist
S&P’s view of the elections in Greece. The bottom line is
that they are nonplussed. You have Germany on the one hand opposed to ameliorating the austerity conditions
imposed on Greece and on the other hand what may be a leaderless Greece, depending on what
kind of coalition they are able to form. If New Democracy cannot achieve some
concessions from its eurozone partners, then any coalition that includes Syriza
will probably fail, leading to new elections.
Will Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel offer concessions to Greece, after the elections
where anti-austerity parties failed to win a majority?
Merkel Just Says "Nein" – ZH