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Friday, June 15

15th Jun - US Open: Great, big threats

I am posting a bit early and will update this later. Have a great weekend and go home square.

Daily US Opening – RanSquawk / ZH
Frontrunning – ZH
The Lunch Wrap – FT
EM New York headlines – FT
Overnight summary – Bank of America / ZH
Today’s front pages – presseurop
Daily press summary – Open Europe

Morning MarketBeat: Headline Mania Propels Stocks – WSJ
Broker Note Briefing – WSJ
Morning Take-Out – NYT
AM Dear Dairy: A Road Diverged – Macro and Cheese
UK Eases, Greek and French Elections, US Data – Marc to Market
The T Report – TF Market Advisors

Pre-market Commentary – Marketwatch
Pre-Market Trading – CNNMoney          
Pre-Market – NASDAQ
US Equity Preview – Bloomberg
Earnings & Events – The Street
MarketCurrents – Seeking Alpha

Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
The Euro Crisis Blog – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
European 10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices

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Battening down the hatchesMacroScope / Reuters
G20 sources told us last night that the major central banks would be prepared to take coordinated action to stabilize markets if necessary –- which I guess is always the case

Central bankers brace for euro break-upFT

From An Orderly EUR Decline To A Capital Flight Crisis In 4 Easy Steps ZH
Goldman contemplates what could turn the jog to a run.

Moody's Downgrades Five Dutch Banks By 1-2 NotchesZH

The European Scorecard: 2 Out Of 5ZH
Credit Suisse: Europe 40% through the resolution of the European crisis but we suspect that the next 60% is highly convex and binary and given our previous note on the divergences of opinion, also unlikely.

Heterogeneity in a monetary union: What have we learned?ECB
Speech by Peter Praet, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, 15 June 2012

Speech Mario Draghi: 14th ECB and its Watchers ConferenceECB

Sentiment Turning on Germany?Marc to Market
Both action (closer integration) and inaction (break-up) are negatives for German bunds, and Germany ends up paying.

It’s Now ABOUT Germany NOT UP TO Germany!naked capitalism
Satyajit Das: German citizens will have to pay twice for the Euro. In the early 2000s, they paid through internal devaluation – reductions in real wages, unemployment and labour market reforms. Now, they will have to pay for the bailouts. Once the artificial boom ends, voters will discover they were betrayed by Germany’s pro-European political elite. There will be an electoral revolt and, as in the rest of Europe, a strong challenge from radical political forces with unpredictable consequences.

ECB last hope as dam breaks in Spain The Telegraph
Spain's borrowing costs have surged to record highs and are perilously close to the point of no return, threatening a full-blown sovereign crisis unless the ECB comes to the rescue.

The EU Smiled While Spain’s Banks Cooked the Books View / BB
So to sum up this way of thinking: The best system is one that lets banks hide their financial condition from the public. Barring that, it’s perfectly acceptable for banks to violate accounting standards, if that’s what it takes to navigate a crisis. The proof is that
Spain’s banks survived the financial meltdown of 2008 better than most others. Except now we know they didn’t.

Still too few details on Spain's bank bailout; cashless transaction may be preferredSober Look
This needs to be finalized soon. The longer the uncertainty about this structure lingers, the more jittery the markets (and the rating agencies) will become.

Irish Tell Spain to Imagine the Worst in Banking BailoutBB
 “Think of the worst possible scenario on banking losses: then double it,” said Eoin Fahy, an economist at Kleinwort Benson Investors in Dublin. “Adopt the most conservative assumptions.”

Positioning For The Weekend: BofA's Risk Cheat-SheetZH
Scenarios 1) pro-EU government and nothing happens 2) anti-EU government and massive policy response, 3) anti-EU government and limited policy response
Greece’s Catharsis?Project Syndicate
Sunday’s election in Greece will decide whether confrontation or negotiation will be used to change the terms of Greece’s refinancing agreement with the eurozone.

Greek election: Two scenarios and potential market reactionSaxo Bank
The Greek election this weekend is an important test of market sentiment. Here are two outcomes and resultant immediate reactions plus a run-down on the process. Another critical event risk ahead is the FOMC meeting next week.

10 questions on the Greek election answeredalphaville / FT
UBS: on Monday morning, we will likely still know very little. Even in the rather unlikely event of a straightforward election result, ie, a clear majority for one of the contenders, we would not know what this means for renegotiation of the MOU, which all parties have now announced.

Opec compromised; Saudi Arabia becomes lone playeralphaville / FT
In short, perhaps not the best time to be playing the “energy scarcity” trade.

Blogs review: The Baltic experiencebruegel
The Baltic economies of Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia have recently taken center stage in macroeconomic policy discussions as advocates of internal devaluations have pointed to these countries as examples that could be generalized to the euro area periphery.

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