I am posting a bit early and will update this
later. Have a great weekend and go home square.
Frontrunning
– ZH
The Lunch
Wrap – FT
EM New York
headlines – FT
Overnight
summary – Bank of America / ZH
Today’s
front pages – presseurop
Daily press
summary – Open Europe
Morning
MarketBeat: Headline Mania Propels Stocks – WSJ
Broker Note
Briefing – WSJ
Morning
Take-Out – NYT
UK Eases, Greek and French Elections,
US Data – Marc
to Market
The T
Report – TF Market Advisors
Pre-market
Commentary – Marketwatch
Pre-Market
Trading – CNNMoney
Pre-Market
– NASDAQ
US Equity Preview – Bloomberg
Earnings
& Events – The
Street
MarketCurrents
– Seeking
Alpha
Debt
crisis: live – The
Telegraph
The Euro
Crisis Blog – WSJ
FX Options
Analytics – Saxo
Bank
European
10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices
EURO CRISIS
Battening down the hatches – MacroScope
/ Reuters
G20 sources told us last night that the major
central banks would be prepared to take coordinated action to stabilize markets
if necessary –- which I guess is always the case
Central bankers brace for euro break-up – FT
From An Orderly EUR Decline To A Capital
Flight Crisis In 4 Easy Steps – ZH
Goldman contemplates
what could turn the jog to a run.
Moody's Downgrades Five Dutch Banks By 1-2
Notches – ZH
The European Scorecard: 2 Out Of 5 – ZH
Credit
Suisse: Europe 40% through the resolution of the European crisis but we suspect that
the next 60% is highly convex and binary and given our previous note on the
divergences of opinion, also unlikely.
EURO CRISIS: ECB
Heterogeneity in a monetary union: What have we
learned? – ECB
Speech by
Peter Praet, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, 15
June 2012
Speech Mario Draghi: 14th ECB and its Watchers
Conference – ECB
EURO CRISIS: GERMANY
Both action
(closer integration) and inaction (break-up) are negatives for German bunds,
and Germany ends up paying.
Satyajit
Das: German citizens will have to pay
twice for the Euro. In the early 2000s, they paid through internal devaluation
– reductions in real wages, unemployment and labour market reforms. Now, they
will have to pay for the bailouts. Once the artificial boom ends, voters will
discover they were betrayed by Germany’s pro-European political elite. There will be an electoral revolt and,
as in the rest of Europe, a strong challenge from radical political forces with unpredictable
consequences.
EURO CRISIS: SPAIN
Spain's borrowing costs have surged to record
highs and are perilously close to the point of no return, threatening a
full-blown sovereign crisis unless the ECB comes to the rescue.
The EU Smiled While Spain’s Banks Cooked the
Books – View
/ BB
So to sum up this way of thinking: The best system is one that lets banks hide their financial condition from the public. Barring that, it’s perfectly acceptable for banks to violate accounting standards, if that’s what it takes to navigate a crisis. The proof is that Spain’s banks survived the financial meltdown of 2008 better than most others. Except now we know they didn’t.
So to sum up this way of thinking: The best system is one that lets banks hide their financial condition from the public. Barring that, it’s perfectly acceptable for banks to violate accounting standards, if that’s what it takes to navigate a crisis. The proof is that Spain’s banks survived the financial meltdown of 2008 better than most others. Except now we know they didn’t.
This needs to be finalized soon. The longer the
uncertainty about this structure lingers, the more jittery the markets (and the
rating agencies) will become.
“Think
of the worst possible scenario on banking losses: then double it,” said Eoin
Fahy, an economist at Kleinwort Benson Investors in Dublin. “Adopt the most
conservative assumptions.”
EURO CRISIS: GREECE
Positioning For The Weekend: BofA's Risk
Cheat-Sheet – ZH
Scenarios
1) pro-EU government and nothing happens 2) anti-EU government and massive
policy response, 3) anti-EU government and limited policy response
Sunday’s election in Greece will decide whether
confrontation or negotiation will be used to change the terms of Greece’s refinancing
agreement with the eurozone.
Greek election: Two scenarios and potential
market reaction – Saxo
Bank
The Greek election this weekend is an important
test of market sentiment. Here are two outcomes and resultant immediate
reactions plus a run-down on the process. Another critical event risk ahead is
the FOMC meeting next week.
10 questions on the Greek election answered – alphaville
/ FT
UBS: on Monday morning, we will likely still know very little. Even in the rather unlikely event of a straightforward election result, ie, a clear majority for one of the contenders, we would not know what this means for renegotiation of the MOU, which all parties have now announced.
UBS: on Monday morning, we will likely still know very little. Even in the rather unlikely event of a straightforward election result, ie, a clear majority for one of the contenders, we would not know what this means for renegotiation of the MOU, which all parties have now announced.
OTHER
Opec compromised; Saudi Arabia becomes lone player – alphaville
/ FT
In short, perhaps not the best time to be playing the “energy scarcity” trade.
In short, perhaps not the best time to be playing the “energy scarcity” trade.
Blogs review: The
Baltic experience –
bruegel
The Baltic economies of Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia have recently taken center stage in macroeconomic policy discussions as
advocates of internal devaluations have pointed to these countries as examples
that could be generalized to the euro area periphery.