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| USD basis swap near crisis lows ZH |
Help request from Spain, but nothing official yet. Wednesday's ECB meeting, and to a much lesser extent the Thursday's speech by Bernanke are key events. I will post a collection of briefings for the ECB meeting tomorrow morning.
It’s the exact opposite of the classic Monty Python bit, where three cardinals burst upon a scene and yell “nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition!” Everybody expects a Spanish extrication – a bailout, a rescue, some kind of save from some international or multi-national source. – MarketBeat / WSJ
News –
Between The Hedges
Markets – Between
The Hedges
Recap – GlobalMacro Trading
The Closer
– alphaville / FT
Market
Commentary – A
View from My Screens
Tyler’s European Summary – ZH
Europe Treads Water Awaiting UK's Return To Reality
Tyler’s US Summary – ZH
Gold Wins As Financials And USD
Deteriorate
Debt
crisis: live – The
Telegraph
The Euro
Crisis Blog – WSJ
FX Options
Analytics – Saxo
Bank
European
10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices
EURO CRISIS: GENERAL
It is not Just Spanish Banks... – Marc
to Market
Given the rules of the engagement in Europe, if one is receiving assistance,
one is not responsible to provide assistance to others. This gives a first
mover advantage. If Spain goes before Cyprus, Cyprus perversely would have
to assist it.
It’s time for the US to express its dismay
at the lack of progress and to begin corralling world resources to incentivize Europe to solve its problems
Citi’s view
on ECB’s available tools: we are going
into the meeting expecting disappointment, but ready to be surprised if the ECB
takes a more aggressive stance.
Goldman Previews ECB "Hope For Best,
Prepare For Worst" – ZH
We expect the ECB to keep rates on hold this
Wednesday and also expect no announcement of further non-standard measures...but
would come out in force if needed
Uncollateralized Trillion Euro Perpetual Zero
Coupon – The Big
Picture
Very funny –
and sad.
EURO CRISIS: GERMANY
Nein! Nein! Nein! Again – The
Telegraph
Almost everything Angela Merkel is talking
about already exists. She has dressed up an old arrangement as if it were new. The
Commission knows this perfectly well. Everybody is pretending there was a
ground-breaking deal this week to maintain appearances. This is the usual EU
smoke and mirrors.
Schadenfreude Is a German Word – TF
Market Advisors
Is the German Pot Calling the PIIGS Kettle
Black? – Debt is either Repaid or It Isn't – How much is Germany on the Hook For at the ECB? – How much is Germany on the Hook For via the EFSF and EU and IMF? – How bad will German Bank
Losses Be? – How bad is the Target2 hit? – Countries in Glass Houses Shouldn’t
Throw Stones
Germany - The Ultimate Doomsday Presentation – ZH
Germany's opportunity cost to preserving the status quo right now, is at a cost of hundreds of billions in the future, yet even that pales to the cost of letting it all fall apart. But this was a year ago, and out of headlines means out of mind.
Germany's opportunity cost to preserving the status quo right now, is at a cost of hundreds of billions in the future, yet even that pales to the cost of letting it all fall apart. But this was a year ago, and out of headlines means out of mind.
EURO CRISIS: SPAIN
Spain has admitted for the first time that it needs European Union support to
prop-up its ailing banks, saying rising borrowing costs had shut the country
out of bond markets.
…flatly rejected the use of eurozone rescue
funds to recapitalise Spanish banks directly. Instead they called on the
Spanish government on Tuesday to decide urgently whether it will seek money
from the €440bn European Financial Stability Facility according to the fund’s
normal rules
Spaniards are shocked and disappointed at the
failure of the main parties and the country’s leading institutions to do
something about the economic crisis
EURO CRISIS: GREECE
Memo of Understanding and other Red Herrings – Marc
to Market
The framing of the Greek election around the
memorandum of understanding is such a red herring. There has been such
deterioration of the economic conditions in Greece that the conditions
and terms of its international assistance will have to be re-crafted in any
event.
There is "at least" a one-in-three
chance that Greece will leave the eurozone, credit rating agency Standard and Poor's has
warned.
OTHER
Arms races and the real encumbrance problem – alphaville
/ FT
Since the start of the US crisis of 2007, the
race for safety has replaced one of the other two races that Haldane discussed:
the race for returns, a catchy way to describe individual firms trying to
maximise profits while setting the stage for the collective market failure that
followed. (The other race, for speed, continues.)
Another Bear Awakens – Bruce
Krasting
Swiss
banker: money coming in from everywhere outside the US, but especially Russia
The Price of Inequality – Project
Syndicate
Joseph E. Stiglitz: America can no longer regard itself as the land of opportunity that it once
was. But it does not have to be this way: it is not too late for the American
dream to be restored.
Goldman On Housing's False Dawn – ZH
the large number of residential properties that are "underwater"—meaning the borrower owes more on the mortgage than the property is worth—casts a long shadow on the sustainability of the housing recovery.
the large number of residential properties that are "underwater"—meaning the borrower owes more on the mortgage than the property is worth—casts a long shadow on the sustainability of the housing recovery.