News &
Recap – RanSquawk / ZH
Frontrunning
– ZH
The Lunch
Wrap – FT
EM New York
headlines – FT
Overnight summary
– Bank of America / ZH
Today’s
front pages – presseurop
Daily press
summary – Open
Europe
Broker Note
Briefing – WSJ
Morning
Take-Out – NYT
– Marc to
Market
The T
Report – TF Market Advisors
Pre-market
Commentary – Marketwatch
Pre-Market
Trading – CNNMoney
Pre-Market
– NASDAQ
US Equity Preview – Bloomberg
Earnings
& Events – The
Street
MarketCurrents
– Seeking
Alpha
Debt
crisis: live – The
Telegraph
The Euro
Crisis Blog – WSJ
FX Options
Analytics – Saxo
Bank
European
10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices
EURO CRISIS
“We will
be lucky if we end up like Japan”…”It’s getting worse, there’s already a
sovereign debt crisis, a banking crisis, a balance of payment crisis, an
economic crisis and all of those things together are getting worse.”
That Target2 presentation – alphaville
/ FT
Comments the Karl Whelan’s presentation from yesterday
Comments the Karl Whelan’s presentation from yesterday
On International (European) Political Economy
Equilibria – Place
du Luxembourg
The Breathless (And Baseless) Bailout Hope – ZH
Citi suggests the survey shows several areas of
technical support, but equally shows little sign that investors are really
positioned for the sovereign crisis again becoming systemic. As several
investors put it, “You’d expect a policy response, wouldn’t you?”
Where Has All The EUR Tail-Risk Gone? – ZH
Citi: given the German unwillingness (and quite
possibly inability) to underwrite the rest of the euro zone, the risk of
contagion and EUR weakness may be much bigger than what is now priced in.
Goldman Sees 25 Bps Cut To Repo Rate On July 5
To 0.75% – ZH
Given the dysfunctional and segmented state of Europe’s financial markets at present,
non-standard measures may be of greater significance in facing the Euro area’s
current challenges
Excellent
chart / flowchart collection from Pictet.
EURO CRISIS: SUMMIT
EU summit: Live blog – The World /
FT
Euro Bonds – “not in my lifetime” – Mrs Merkel – Kiron
Sarkar / The Big Picture
The key country remains France. The French designed
the EU as a confederation of European States and are totally opposed to a
supranational organisation ie political union… My view is that not a great deal
will come out of the 28/29th meeting, though I hope I’m wrong. The only good
thing is that market expectations are low, indeed at rock bottom.
BizDaily: The wheel of misfortune – BBC
(mp3)
Who's going to pick up the tab for the hundreds
of billions of euros lost in the eurozone? As European leaders gather to gamble
on their next move to stem the crisis - Business Daily responds by launching
its own gameshow - the Wheel of Misfortune. Plus we'll be telling you how to
get a free degree from Harvard.
Why expectations for the EU summit are low – Wonkblog
/ WP
Cchart from JPMorgan shows that the bond
markets tend to get jubilant going into big euro zone summits — and then, once
the meeting’s over and it’s clear that nothing’s been resolved, the markets
panic again
Strangely, Mario Monti may object to a full
blown banking union
– Sober
Look
Italy's banks are not nearly as troubled as
Spain's, making Italy's objective different from its troubled neighbor…But Italy also needs ESM's help
in rolling its massive amounts of debt. Monti's goal therefore has been to
release some of ESM funds specifically to buy periphery government debt - not
to engage in rescuing banks or backstopping deposits.
http://www.marctomarket.com/2012/06/europe-three-nos-revisited.html
No ECB backstop for sovereigns. No joint bonds. No euro area break up…What many have called
"muddling through" is more than that…It will create a union where the
interests of the creditors are institutionalized.
Roubini, Bremmer See Little Clarity From EU
Summit – BB (mp3)
EURO CRISIS: PIIGS
Spanish Banks Should Be Back for Another
Bailout – Bondsquawk
Pickings
from a recent SocGen paper. Japan teaches us the main threat was and
is deflation, not the banks.
Spanish bailout divination – alphaville
/ FT
Citi’s Willem Buiter argued on Monday (the note is in the usual place), that Spain is likely to require, possibly quite soon, another programme, this time with sovereign conditionality and troika participation.
Citi’s Willem Buiter argued on Monday (the note is in the usual place), that Spain is likely to require, possibly quite soon, another programme, this time with sovereign conditionality and troika participation.
OTHER
The internal audit function in banks - final
document – BIS
http://www.bis.org/press/p120628.htm
Peak Oil? Where? – ASA
Outlook for 3Q 2012 – Global
Macro Trading
Market
views from a good macro manager
What Can We Learn from 147 Bank Crises? – Marketplace
Nordic Outlook - July 2012 – Danske
Bank (pdf)
Denmark: European debt crisis is hampering the Danish economy. The kick-start
will only ensure slow growth. Sweden: Measly economic growth but room for monetary and fiscal easing. Norway: Growth is holding above trend, unemployment is falling and wage growth
is higher than expected. Norway is performing
strongly. Finland: We anticipate Finland sinking into a recession this year despite healthy economic structures.