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Thursday, June 28

28th Jun - US Open

I'll punch in the missing entries later. Good summit resolution! (nothing comes out of it)

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News & Recap – RanSquawk / ZH
Frontrunning – ZH
The Lunch Wrap – FT
EM New York headlines – FT
Overnight summary – Bank of America / ZH
Today’s front pages – presseurop
Daily press summary – Open Europe

Morning MarketBeat: Europe to Remain Divided – WSJ
Broker Note Briefing – WSJ
Morning Take-Out – NYT
– Marc to Market
The T Report – TF Market Advisors

Pre-market Commentary – Marketwatch
Pre-Market Trading – CNNMoney          
Pre-Market – NASDAQ
US Equity Preview – Bloomberg
Earnings & Events – The Street
MarketCurrents – Seeking Alpha

Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
The Euro Crisis Blog – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
European 10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices

Germany is a first class passenger on the Euro TitanicCredit Writedowns

Roubini Confident Europe's Born Again Virgins Will Not Satisfy GermanyZH
 “We will be lucky if we end up like Japan”…”It’s getting worse, there’s already a sovereign debt crisis, a banking crisis, a balance of payment crisis, an economic crisis and all of those things together are getting worse.”

That Target2 presentationalphaville / FT
Comments the Karl Whelan’s presentation from yesterday

On International (European) Political Economy EquilibriaPlace du Luxembourg

The Breathless (And Baseless) Bailout HopeZH
Citi suggests the survey shows several areas of technical support, but equally shows little sign that investors are really positioned for the sovereign crisis again becoming systemic. As several investors put it, “You’d expect a policy response, wouldn’t you?”

Where Has All The EUR Tail-Risk Gone?ZH
Citi: given the German unwillingness (and quite possibly inability) to underwrite the rest of the euro zone, the risk of contagion and EUR weakness may be much bigger than what is now priced in.

Goldman Sees 25 Bps Cut To Repo Rate On July 5 To 0.75%ZH
Given the dysfunctional and segmented state of Europe’s financial markets at present, non-standard measures may be of greater significance in facing the Euro area’s current challenges

Presenting Europe's 'Over-Indebtedness' Roadmap To CatastropheZH
Excellent chart / flowchart collection from Pictet.

EU summit: Live blogThe World / FT

Euro Bonds – “not in my lifetime” – Mrs MerkelKiron Sarkar / The Big Picture
The key country remains France. The French designed the EU as a confederation of European States and are totally opposed to a supranational organisation ie political union… My view is that not a great deal will come out of the 28/29th meeting, though I hope I’m wrong. The only good thing is that market expectations are low, indeed at rock bottom.

BizDaily: The wheel of misfortuneBBC (mp3)
Who's going to pick up the tab for the hundreds of billions of euros lost in the eurozone? As European leaders gather to gamble on their next move to stem the crisis - Business Daily responds by launching its own gameshow - the Wheel of Misfortune. Plus we'll be telling you how to get a free degree from Harvard.

Why expectations for the EU summit are lowWonkblog / WP
Cchart from JPMorgan shows that the bond markets tend to get jubilant going into big euro zone summits — and then, once the meeting’s over and it’s clear that nothing’s been resolved, the markets panic again

Strangely, Mario Monti may object to a full blown banking unionSober Look
Italy's banks are not nearly as troubled as Spain's, making Italy's objective different from its troubled neighbor…But Italy also needs ESM's help in rolling its massive amounts of debt. Monti's goal therefore has been to release some of ESM funds specifically to buy periphery government debt - not to engage in rescuing banks or backstopping deposits.

Europe: Three No's RevisitedMarc to Market
No ECB backstop for sovereigns.  No joint bonds.  No euro area break up…What many have called "muddling through" is more than that…It will create a union where the interests of the creditors are institutionalized.

UBS’s Walker Selling Euros and Expecting LittleBB (mp3)

Roubini, Bremmer See Little Clarity From EU SummitBB (mp3)

Citigroup’s Sheets Says Europe Will Share DebtBB (mp3)

Spanish Banks Should Be Back for Another BailoutBondsquawk
Pickings from a recent SocGen paper. Japan teaches us the main threat was and is deflation, not the banks.

Spanish bailout divinationalphaville / FT
Citi’s Willem Buiter argued on Monday (the note is in the usual place), that Spain is likely to require, possibly quite soon, another programme, this time with sovereign conditionality and troika participation.

The internal audit function in banks - final document BIS

Peak Oil? Where?ASA

Outlook for 3Q 2012Global Macro Trading
Market views from a good macro manager

What Can We Learn from 147 Bank Crises?Marketplace

Coal inventory at China's power plants hits record; indicates reduced power usageSober Look

Nordic Outlook - July 2012Danske Bank (pdf)
Denmark: European debt crisis is hampering the Danish economy. The kick-start will only ensure slow growth. Sweden: Measly economic growth but room for monetary and fiscal easing. Norway: Growth is holding above trend, unemployment is falling and wage growth is higher than expected. Norway is performing strongly. Finland: We anticipate Finland sinking into a recession this year despite healthy economic structures.

Sweden: Staff Report for the 2012 Article IV ConsultationIMF
Sweden: Selected IssuesIMF

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