Did anyone
notice anything out of the summit, except the cancelled press meeting with
Merkel? Nothing to say after the first day, eh? Writers have been busy with the US Supreme Court decision on health care and the Barclays Bank's manipulation of LIBOR rates. Especially the latter is "old news" - everyone kind of knew already that LIBOR rates have become useless during the financial crisis.
News – Between
The Hedges
Markets – Between
The Hedges
Recap –
Global Macro Trading
The Closer
– alphaville / FT
Market
Commentary – A
View From My Screens
Tyler’s European Summary – ZH
European
Stocks Revert Back Down To Credit's Pessimism
Stocks
Don't Even Need A Rumor To Surge Now
Debt
crisis: live – The
Telegraph
The Euro
Crisis Blog – WSJ
FX Options
Analytics – Saxo
Bank
European
10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices
EURO CRISIS
I suspect that a banking union of some kind
will be implemented, and soon. Otherwise, the eurozone banking system will
collapse. But the consequences of such a step for Europe’s great free-trade experiment could
be serious, and, if not managed carefully, could lead to Britain’s withdrawal.
EFSF/ESM 2ndary market bond purchases wouldn’t
bring much relief –
economistmeg
If the idea of EFSF/ESM bond purchases in the
secondary markets is among the items agreed over the next two days in Brussels, then there may be a
brief market rally. However, this measure will serve as yet another delaying
tactic, and does not address any of the underlying causes of this crisis.
Investors will recognize this quickly, and any market rally inspired by
EFSF/ESM bond purchases would in my view represent an opportunity to sell.
Sometimes "No" Means Exactly That – Mark Grant / ZH
Germany will not back-up. This summit will prove to be quite contentious as the
beggars want to be the choosers and that is not the way the world works. Hopes
will get dashed and reality will invoke its presence and the platitudes of the last
thirteen years since the EU was formed will run head on into the unavailability
of funds and shockwaves will reverberate across the Continent. That is my
prediction.
European Council | Yes, the euro is mortal – presseurop
The European Council cannot afford the hunt for
a new compromise in the short term, warns the European press. European leaders
must take seriously the risk that the single currency will collapse – and with
it, the EU.
Greek mattresses seeing capital flight – alphaville
/ FT
“The numbers are not huge but there is a daily
return. We are seeing about 20 million euros brought back daily.”… Still, there
is still a lot of cash held outside of the banking system, maybe even half of
all the cash in circulation.
The Evolution of European Equity Risk – VIX
and more
In essence, Italy has persisted in the
high risk tier and Germany has been a constant in the lower risk category. Over the course of the
past few months, the interesting development has been the switch between France and Spain, with the former
improving from being a peer of Italy to a peer of Germany, while Spain has moved in the opposite direction.
Europeans' views of the euro – Sober Look
The latest Pew surveys that focused on the
benefits of the euro and the ongoing wish to maintain the common currency have
revealed some surprising results.
In spite of large corrections, housing excess
(and denial) persists in the Eurozone – Sober
Look
The rest of these nations just keep building as
if nothing had happened, keeping the overall Eurozone investment levels high
relative to other developed nations. And the banks are obviously financing all
this investment. More denial.
The euro area sovereign debt market: lessons
from the crisis – ECB
Speech by
Benoît Cœuré, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, 12th IMF Annual Forum
on Managing Sovereign Risk and Public Debt: “Managing Sovereign Debt: A Seismic
Shift in demand and Supply Dynamics?”, Rio de Janeiro, 28-29 June 2012
EURO CRISIS: PODCASTS
Beecroft
Says German Antagonism Toward Bailout Growing – BB (mp3)
SocGen’s
Galy Says Euro Will `Steadily’ Decline – BB (mp3)
Rabobank’s
McGuire Says Germany Starting to Feel Pain – BB (mp3)
Yale’s
Roach Says Europe Needs Banking Union Right Now – BB (mp3)
LIBOR
Libor, the liquidity consequences – alphaville
/ FT
Indeed, the market’s attempts to establish a secured Ronia interbank market in the UK certainly imply Libor may very possibly beyond saving.
Indeed, the market’s attempts to establish a secured Ronia interbank market in the UK certainly imply Libor may very possibly beyond saving.
Interbank loans are now just over 1% of total
bank assets - the lowest in history.
OTHER
EMEA Weekly, Week 27 – Danske
Bank (pdf)
Reuters: The Leadership Issue – Thomson
Reuters (pdf)
Full issue
of the latest magazine.
Charts: the weakness of Chinese Yuan – ASA