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Thursday, June 28

28th Jun - US Close: 1st Day Over

Did anyone notice anything out of the summit, except the cancelled press meeting with Merkel? Nothing to say after the first day, eh? Writers have been busy with the US Supreme Court decision on health care and the Barclays Bank's manipulation of LIBOR rates. Especially the latter is "old news" - everyone kind of knew already that LIBOR rates have become useless during the financial crisis.

Markets – Between The Hedges
The Closer – alphaville / FT
Market Commentary – A View From My Screens
Tyler’s European Summary – ZH
  European Stocks Revert Back Down To Credit's Pessimism
Tyler's US Summary – ZH
  Stocks Don't Even Need A Rumor To Surge Now

Tyler's US Summary II – ZH
  Just A Very Visible Fat Finger?

Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
The Euro Crisis Blog – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
European 10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices

EURO CRISIS
One Big Union Project Syndicate
I suspect that a banking union of some kind will be implemented, and soon. Otherwise, the eurozone banking system will collapse. But the consequences of such a step for Europe’s great free-trade experiment could be serious, and, if not managed carefully, could lead to Britain’s withdrawal.

EFSF/ESM 2ndary market bond purchases wouldn’t bring much relief economistmeg
If the idea of EFSF/ESM bond purchases in the secondary markets is among the items agreed over the next two days in Brussels, then there may be a brief market rally. However, this measure will serve as yet another delaying tactic, and does not address any of the underlying causes of this crisis. Investors will recognize this quickly, and any market rally inspired by EFSF/ESM bond purchases would in my view represent an opportunity to sell.

Sometimes "No" Means Exactly That Mark Grant / ZH
Germany will not back-up. This summit will prove to be quite contentious as the beggars want to be the choosers and that is not the way the world works. Hopes will get dashed and reality will invoke its presence and the platitudes of the last thirteen years since the EU was formed will run head on into the unavailability of funds and shockwaves will reverberate across the Continent. That is my prediction.

European Council | Yes, the euro is mortalpresseurop
The European Council cannot afford the hunt for a new compromise in the short term, warns the European press. European leaders must take seriously the risk that the single currency will collapse – and with it, the EU.

Greek mattresses seeing capital flightalphaville / FT
“The numbers are not huge but there is a daily return. We are seeing about 20 million euros brought back daily.”… Still, there is still a lot of cash held outside of the banking system, maybe even half of all the cash in circulation.

The Evolution of European Equity RiskVIX and more
In essence, Italy has persisted in the high risk tier and Germany has been a constant in the lower risk category. Over the course of the past few months, the interesting development has been the switch between France and Spain, with the former improving from being a peer of Italy to a peer of Germany, while Spain has moved in the opposite direction.

Europeans' views of the euroSober Look
The latest Pew surveys that focused on the benefits of the euro and the ongoing wish to maintain the common currency have revealed some surprising results.

In spite of large corrections, housing excess (and denial) persists in the EurozoneSober Look
The rest of these nations just keep building as if nothing had happened, keeping the overall Eurozone investment levels high relative to other developed nations. And the banks are obviously financing all this investment. More denial.

The euro area sovereign debt market: lessons from the crisisECB
Speech by Benoît Cœuré, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, 12th IMF Annual Forum on Managing Sovereign Risk and Public Debt: “Managing Sovereign Debt: A Seismic Shift in demand and Supply Dynamics?”, Rio de Janeiro, 28-29 June 2012

EURO CRISIS: PODCASTS
Beecroft Says German Antagonism Toward Bailout Growing – BB (mp3)
SocGen’s Galy Says Euro Will `Steadily’ Decline – BB (mp3)
Rabobank’s McGuire Says Germany Starting to Feel Pain – BB (mp3)
Yale’s Roach Says Europe Needs Banking Union Right Now – BB (mp3)

LIBOR
Libor, the liquidity consequencesalphaville / FT
Indeed, the market’s attempts to establish a secured Ronia interbank market in the
UK certainly imply Libor may very possibly beyond saving.

LIBOR is becoming less relevant, even in the USSober Look
Interbank loans are now just over 1% of total bank assets - the lowest in history.

OTHER
EMEA Weekly, Week 27Danske Bank (pdf)

Reuters: The Leadership IssueThomson Reuters (pdf)
Full issue of the latest magazine.

Charts: the weakness of Chinese YuanASA