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News
Roundup – Between
The Hedges
Markets –
Between The Hedges
Recap –
Global Macro Trading
The Closer
– alphaville / FT
Market
Commentary – A
View from My Screens
Tyler’s European Summary – ZH
Tyler’s US Summary – ZH
Markets Dead Cat Bounce Back To Friday's Close
Debt
crisis: live – The
Telegraph
The Euro
Crisis Blog – WSJ
FX Options
Analytics – Saxo
Bank
European
10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices
EURO CRISIS
The G20 should rise to the challenge (but
probably won’t) – bruegel
1) review Europe’s financial reform plans 2) express
readiness to provide support and 3) examine the need of coordinating
macroeconomic policies.
More like fail-out – Free exchange
/ The Economist
While the crisis is not yet back to November's
rolling boil, momentum is building once again. The next week will be eventful
indeed, and it will take more than €100 billion in emergency bank lending to
calm newly panicked markets.
€370bn of unsecured bank bonds mature before
bail-in provisions kick in – Sober
Look
Eurozone banks have 5.5 years to convert their
€370bn of unsecured debt into secured bonds. They certainly won't be able to
roll most of that debt because the bail-in provisions are expected to kick in
on 1-Jan-2018 when unsecured bonds will essentially carry "equity risk".
What Does European Credit Know That Stocks
Don't? – ZH
European credit markets are near one-week wides…
European equities are modestly higher from yesterday's close and remain higher
than Friday's close.
The Fate of the Monetary Union Lies in
Germany’s Hands
‘Bank’ is just a four-letter word- not a fix – ZH
Every several months it’s a new problem, a new bank, a new banking system, a new issue that goes bad and for which the e-Zone creates a new partial fix. Why not a real fix? Why not for the real problem? Why not now? Or, end the madness and just break up.
Every several months it’s a new problem, a new bank, a new banking system, a new issue that goes bad and for which the e-Zone creates a new partial fix. Why not a real fix? Why not for the real problem? Why not now? Or, end the madness and just break up.
When you realize that of the potential $100
billion to spend, 22% of that has to be provided by Italy and their lending to Spain is at 3% but Italy has to borrow at 6%.
They have to lend to Spain $22bn at 3% - it is
just madness. Everybody is getting worried again. The solution that they seem
to have come up with seems to be worse than the problem in the first place.
Then we have just seen what happens with “local
law” bonds as demonstrated by Greece so that you need to
swap out of any “local law” bonds ASAP and only own bonds governed by American,
British or Swiss law. This would be for any and all nations on the Continent
without exception.
A banking union “no go” summary – alphaville
/ FT
It is hard to see how European politicians
could achieve such profound reforms within weeks or months – as the Americans
and others are urging.
The eurozone as monetary crisis – alphaville
/ FT
Two simple charts. The crisis is very, very simple.
Two simple charts. The crisis is very, very simple.
Weekly Macro: One step closer to a meeting of
the Cardinals? – Saxo
Bank
Steen
Jakobsen: We spent considerable time
today discussing the "banking union" which seems to be the
economists' and policy makers' favorite panacea for the EU debt crisis. Our
conclusion is that we can't see why or how this will be the eventual solution.
The real focus (and concern) should be on
France – Kiron
Sarkar / The Big Picture
Generic
news/market wrap-up: Spain, ECB, France
An Interesting Bailout in the Offing – Bruce
Krasting
In the crazy world of sovereign bailouts, we
may find Cyprus in a unique position. There may be competition for who provides the
bailout cash. If one was a Cypriot, and faced with the need to go hat in hand
for help, which way would they go?
EURO CRISIS: ECB
The ECB is Passively Tightening – Macro
and Other Market Musings
Something that many observers miss about the
Eurozone crisis is that by doing nothing the ECB is doing something: it is
passively tightening monetary policy.
Financial Stability Review – ECB
and the full
pdf,
some discussion below:
Eurozone bank deleveraging, datapoints du jour – alphaville
/ FT
substantial leverage ratios at the onset of
their respective crises. These ratios fell dramatically within two years, from
36% to 20% for Japan and from 34% to 17% for Norway… Notably, the
leverage ratios of large euro area banks remain relatively high at 25%…
EURO CRISIS: SPAIN
Spanish Bond Yields Hit 2012 Highs As Merkel
Dismisses Eurobonds
– ZH
Invest in Spanish banks? Nope - wait until
housing recovers – Saxo
Bank
Euro under pressure as all Euro government debt
crumbled today – Saxo
Bank
EURO CRISIS: GREECE
Greek elections decision tree – Sober Look
Barclays’ overview of the various scenarios in
the upcoming Greek elections. This also shows that the situation in Spain can not be divorced
from the Greek outcome.
The Greek Decision-Tree – ZH
Goldman’s complete Greek decision tree that is
set to unfold once again starting Sunday night. The one thing we can
definitively say: this is one tree that money definitely not grow on.
The European Commission on Tuesday (12 June)
confirmed it is giving legal advice on possible capital controls and border
checks should Greece leave the eurozone.
Greek politicians ♥ Spanish bank bailout – alphaville
/ FT
The thinking broadly seems to be, if there’s
room for manoeuvre/more cash for Madrid, why not for Athens!
Greek Bank Run Update: €100-€500 Million Per
Day – ZH
Considering that the Greece banking system has
about €170 billion in total deposits, this is roughly 0.3% of the entire
deposit base fleeing each day - those who understand the nuances of fractional
reserve banking get why this could be an issue.
SWISSIE
"Due To The Current Market Environment In Europe", Saxo Bank Quadruples CHF
Margins From 1% to 4%
– ZH
The entire bond curve through the 5 year point
is now negative