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Monday, June 4

4th Jun - EU Open: Morning Briefings

Here are the morning briefs – another Monday holiday, this time in UK. I hope the other Europeans would not hurt themselves trying to catch a falling knife meanwhile.

Previously on MoreLiver’s during the weekend:

News roundup – Between The Hedges
News roundup – The Trader
Emerging London Headlines – beyondbrics / FT
The 6am Cut London – alphaville / FT
Press digests by Reuters: FT, WSJ, NYT

Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
The Euro Crisis Blog – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
European 10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices

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Danske DailyDanske Bank (pdf)
Weak US employment report fuels global growth concerns. Stock markets are posting large losses in Asian trading. Brent oil is trading below USD 100 per barrel. No key economic data releases today – UK is closed

Market Preview: – Saxo Bank

Morning Briefing: – BNY Mellon

Euro zone on the move … too slowly?MacroScope / Reuters

Complete Eurocrisis SummaryZH
Good short roundup of where we are.

Europe mulls major step towards "fiscal union"Reuters
When Jean-Claude Trichet called last June for the creation of a European finance ministry with power over national budgets, the idea seemed fanciful, a distant dream that would take years or even decades to realize, if it ever came to be.

The EU’s Systemic Risk: Why This Time IS DifferentGains Pains
EU is a colossal mess beyond the scope of anyone’s imagination. The World’s Central Banks cannot possibly hope to contain it. They literally have one of two choices: 1) Monetize everything (hyperinflation), 2) Allow the defaults and collapse to happen (mega-deflation)

The n-th discussion of why austerity makes matter worse for EuropeASA
As it seems, current interest rate spreads are not only influenced by debt-to-
GDP ratios; economic growth too has a very strong impact… Consequently, economic policy strategies to fight the European debt crisis must consider their consequences for economic growth too.

Europe's Bailout Costs In One Chart: €2 Trillion And CountingZH
The truth is that by the time the status quo finishes its extend and pretend game, which incidentally has only one real outcome, the €2 trillion spent to date, will be orders of magnitude higher...

How do economists assess the european economic crisis? A
How do European economists assess the economic crisis in Europe? This column presents results of a survey of members of the Association of European Conjuncture Institutes on various issues related to the European economic crisis, such as the likelihood of Greece leaving the Eurozone, the likelihood of Europe falling back into recession, and the role of the ECB.

Charts: Eurozone sectoral balances, periphery vs. coreASA

A big hairball of riskFree exchange / The Economist
Europe, US and China: The key takeaway is that while a good outcome is the likeliest scenario for each, the combined probability of all three turning out well is only one-third.

Breaking the negative feedback loopLawrence Summers / Reuters
Borrow more! : Any rational business leader would use a moment like this to term out its debt. Governments in the industrialized world should do so too.

The Titanic’s lessons for us about the coming economic crisisFabius Maximus
Bad decisions often transform a crisis into a disaster.  Sometimes bad decisions are unavoidable. Today we’ll look at two episodes of the past, mining them for useful lessons for us about leadership.

Global Manufacturing Growth Shudders Towards A HaltA Fistful of Euros
Following a brief brief period of stabilisation, which lasted roughly from November last year to this January, conditions have been steadily deteriorating in manufacturing sectors across the planet, with the deterioration being lead by an ongoing decline in new export orders.

2012 = 1998?Humble Student
When I consider the different dimensions by which investors evaluate equities, they present a mixed picture that is, while bearish, does not point to disaster:

Things That Make You Go HmmmGrant Williams / ZH
27 pages of news, markets and one of the best commentary out there. Full pdf download

China’s FX reserve accumulation and EURUSDASA
Although euro-denominated assets are not the big part of Chinese FX reserve, the pace of FX reserve accumulation of China seems to show a weak link with Euro/dollar exchange rate in the past 5 years or so.

Is Long EURUSD The ABX Trade Of 2012?ZH
Long euro at current levels? (
US QE threat, China etc)

BIS Quarterly Review BIS
Returning doubts drive up financial market volatility (download page)

1937Krugman / NYT
we haven’t seen spending cuts like this since the demobilization that followed the Korean War.

Bilderberg 2012: detailed member bios, UK Guardian’s video reportWashington’s Blog

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