Here are
the morning briefs – another Monday holiday, this time in UK. I hope the other Europeans would
not hurt themselves trying to catch a falling knife meanwhile.
Previously
on MoreLiver’s during the weekend:
News
roundup – The
Trader
The 6am Cut
London – alphaville / FT
Debt
crisis: live – The
Telegraph
The Euro
Crisis Blog – WSJ
FX Options
Analytics – Saxo
Bank
European
10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices
Danske Daily – Danske
Bank (pdf)
Weak US employment report
fuels global growth concerns. Stock markets are posting large losses in Asian
trading. Brent oil is trading below USD 100 per barrel. No key economic data
releases today – UK is closed
Market
Preview: – Saxo Bank
Morning
Briefing: – BNY Mellon
EURO CRISIS: WHAT’S GOING ON?
Euro zone on the move … too slowly? – MacroScope
/ Reuters
Complete Eurocrisis Summary – ZH
Good short roundup of where we are.
Good short roundup of where we are.
When Jean-Claude Trichet called last June for
the creation of a European finance ministry with power over national budgets,
the idea seemed fanciful, a distant dream that would take years or even decades
to realize, if it ever came to be.
EURO CRISIS: GENERAL
The EU’s Systemic Risk: Why This Time IS
Different – Gains Pains
EU is a colossal mess beyond the scope of
anyone’s imagination. The World’s Central Banks cannot possibly hope to contain
it. They literally have one of two choices: 1) Monetize everything
(hyperinflation), 2) Allow the defaults and collapse to happen (mega-deflation)
The n-th discussion of why austerity makes
matter worse for Europe – ASA
As it seems, current interest rate spreads are not only influenced by debt-to-GDP ratios; economic growth too has a very strong impact… Consequently, economic policy strategies to fight the European debt crisis must consider their consequences for economic growth too.
As it seems, current interest rate spreads are not only influenced by debt-to-GDP ratios; economic growth too has a very strong impact… Consequently, economic policy strategies to fight the European debt crisis must consider their consequences for economic growth too.
The truth is that by the time the status quo
finishes its extend and pretend game, which incidentally has only one real
outcome, the €2 trillion spent to date, will be orders of magnitude higher...
How do economists assess the european economic
crisis? A survey – voxeu.org
How do
European economists assess the economic crisis in Europe? This column presents results of a
survey of members of the Association of European Conjuncture Institutes on
various issues related to the European economic crisis, such as the likelihood
of Greece leaving the Eurozone, the likelihood of Europe falling back into
recession, and the role of the ECB.
Charts: Eurozone sectoral balances, periphery
vs. core – ASA
OTHER
A big hairball of risk – Free
exchange / The Economist
Europe, US and China: The key takeaway is that while a good outcome is the likeliest scenario
for each, the combined probability of all three turning out well is only
one-third.
Breaking the negative feedback loop – Lawrence
Summers / Reuters
Borrow
more! : Any rational business leader
would use a moment like this to term out its debt. Governments in the
industrialized world should do so too.
The Titanic’s lessons for us about the coming
economic crisis – Fabius Maximus
Bad decisions often transform a crisis into a
disaster. Sometimes bad decisions are
unavoidable. Today we’ll look at two episodes of the past, mining them for
useful lessons for us about leadership.
Global Manufacturing Growth Shudders Towards A
Halt – A
Fistful of Euros
Following a brief brief period of
stabilisation, which lasted roughly from November last year to this January,
conditions have been steadily deteriorating in manufacturing sectors across the
planet, with the deterioration being lead by an ongoing decline in new export
orders.
2012 = 1998? – Humble
Student
When I consider the different dimensions by
which investors evaluate equities, they present a mixed picture that is, while
bearish, does not point to disaster:
Things That Make You Go Hmmm – Grant
Williams / ZH
27 pages of
news, markets and one of the best commentary out there. Full pdf
download
China’s FX reserve accumulation and EURUSD – ASA
Although euro-denominated assets are not the big part of Chinese FX reserve, the pace of FX reserve accumulation of China seems to show a weak link with Euro/dollar exchange rate in the past 5 years or so.
Although euro-denominated assets are not the big part of Chinese FX reserve, the pace of FX reserve accumulation of China seems to show a weak link with Euro/dollar exchange rate in the past 5 years or so.
Returning doubts drive up financial market
volatility (download
page)
1937 – Krugman / NYT
we haven’t seen spending cuts like this since
the demobilization that followed the Korean War.