The evening
links. A dull day, waiting for Wednesday’s ECB meeting and Thursday’s address
from Bernanke. Eurocrats are playing announcement games – today we had two:
Merkel’s and Barroso’s evening statement was announced during the European
hours. Nothing came out of that. Then they announced that the finance ministers
will hold a teleconference on Tuesday. Nothing will come out of that either.
They are trying to stress you out. Don’t let them.
News – Between
The Hedges
Markets – Between
The Hedges
Recap – Global
Macro Trading
The Closer
– alphaville / FT
Market
Commentary – A
View from My Screens
Tyler’s US Summary – ZH
Gold Wins As Financials And USD
Deteriorate
Debt
crisis: live – The
Telegraph
The Euro
Crisis Blog – WSJ
FX Options
Analytics – Saxo
Bank
European
10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices
EURO CRISIS
Grexit is costly, but that doesn’t mean it’s
impossible – ASA
Greek exit of the Euro zone will be ruinous, financially. It appears, however, to be just too early to say “no, that will not happen”.
Greek exit of the Euro zone will be ruinous, financially. It appears, however, to be just too early to say “no, that will not happen”.
The Weekender – bruegel
Focus on: 1)
Eurobonds and the proposals of the Goulard report 2) he future Spanish program
and burden sharing issues 3) Deposit guarantee schemes
Chart from Bridgewater: not enough committed funds to save
the euro
"Multi-Stage" Nannycrat Proposals;
Devaluation - The Last Option? Note to Wolfgang Münchau, Martin Wolf, Jeremy
Siegel at the Financial Times: Focus on the Obtanium not the Unobtanium – Mish’s
It is time to focus on reality instead of the
impossible. The reality is the eurozone is going to bust up and nannycrats
better get used to the idea or the markets will impose that break-up in their
own messy way.
Reports suggest that Spain is coming under
increasing political pressure to seek assistance. Yet the stigma is too much
and Spanish officials recognize that if asks for assistance, many investors
will conclude that the country is insolvent…
Euro area Housing markets: a temperature gauge – Danske
Bank (pdf)
Spain's ruling party has begun to crack under
pressure, signalling for the first time that the country may need a European
rescue to shore up its banking system.
The program remains on track amidst continued
challenges… The ambitious 2012 fiscal deficit target remains within reach.
Grodzki Says Failing Spanish Banks Should Be
Closed – BB (mp3)
Schmieding Says European Deals Will Wait for
Elections – BB (mp3)
FED, ECB ?
Will rates stay low, QE or no? – alphaville
/ FT
JP Morgan,
Deutsche Bank commentary
Goldman's Confidence That QE Will Be Announced
On June 20 "Has Grown" – ZH
Our baseline remains that Fed officials will
purchase a mixture of mortgages and long-term Treasuries,
Fed policy: So many risks, so few tools – MacroScope
/ Reuters
there is not very much more the central bank
can do to effectively boost economic growth and bring down unemployment… That
doesn’t mean the Fed won’t try.
Pond Says More Fed Stimulus Is `Increasingly
Likely' – BB (mp3)
Time for the Draghi and Bernanke Puts – Humble
Student
The ECB is likely to reduce interest rates in
the face of economic weakness in the eurozone, but don't expect too much more…My
guess is that investors looking for hints of another round of QE from the Fed
on Thursday are likely to be disappointed.
ECB preview: We expect ECB to cut in June – Danske
Bank (pdf)
SOROS LETTER (here)
Why George Soros thinks the euro will survive – Wonkblog
/ WP
Soros on the Euro
– Krugman
/ NYT
STOCK MARKETS
The Big Picture (Updated) – The
Short Side of The Long
Very
long-term charts and discussion
How Much Further Can Financial Stocks Fall? – ZH
Market Valuation Overview – dshort
Equity prices vs. inflation expectations – Sober
Look
either inflation expectations have declined too
sharply (now at 0.82%) or US equities are still overpriced.
ECONOMY
Business Cycle Monitor – Danske
Bank (pdf)
PMIs take a hit as euro crisis deepens
Our Most Widely Ignored Public Intellectuals – The
American Prospect
Why don't those in power listen to economists
Joseph Stiglitz and Paul Krugman?
GLOBAL CRISIS
Global Banks Cut Lending in Response to
Economic Slowdown –
DealBook
/ NYT
Looks at
the latest BIS quarterly report
Stress Indicators – Saxo
Bank
Steen
Jakobsen: We continue to see a lack of REAL credit dollars - the world has
never printed more money, but the US dollars available for credit have
decreased by USD 600 bln since last year.
When Macro Meets Micro – ZH
J.P.Morgan:
But I cannot recall such an extreme
dichotomy before, characterized by rising profits, mountains of sidelined cash
and low equity valuations on one hand, and a set of almost biblical
macroeconomic risks on the other.
Greg Ip’s risk hairball – Felix
Salmon / Reuters
“And that sort of disengagement,” says Ip, “can
make economic pessimism self-fulfilling.” Unless, of course, governments take
advantage of their ultra-cheap funding to step in with massive economic
stimulus.
OTHER
Quick Note on Today's Price Action – Marc
to Market
Previously: