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Monday, June 4

4th Jun - US Close: Squared Announcements

The evening links. A dull day, waiting for Wednesday’s ECB meeting and Thursday’s address from Bernanke. Eurocrats are playing announcement games – today we had two: Merkel’s and Barroso’s evening statement was announced during the European hours. Nothing came out of that. Then they announced that the finance ministers will hold a teleconference on Tuesday. Nothing will come out of that either. They are trying to stress you out. Don’t let them.

News – Between The Hedges
Markets – Between The Hedges
The Closer – alphaville / FT
Market Commentary – A View from My Screens
Tyler’s US Summary – ZH
 Gold Wins As Financials And USD Deteriorate

Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
The Euro Crisis Blog – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
European 10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices

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Grexit is costly, but that doesn’t mean it’s impossibleASA
Greek exit of the Euro zone will be ruinous, financially.  It appears, however, to be just too early to say “no, that will not happen”.

The Weekenderbruegel
Focus on: 1) Eurobonds and the proposals of the Goulard report 2) he future Spanish program and burden sharing issues 3) Deposit guarantee schemes

Brussels... We Have A ProblemZH
Chart from Bridgewater: not enough committed funds to save the euro

"Multi-Stage" Nannycrat Proposals; Devaluation - The Last Option? Note to Wolfgang Münchau, Martin Wolf, Jeremy Siegel at the Financial Times: Focus on the Obtanium not the UnobtaniumMish’s
It is time to focus on reality instead of the impossible. The reality is the eurozone is going to bust up and nannycrats better get used to the idea or the markets will impose that break-up in their own messy way.

Spain and Banking UnionMarc to Market
Reports suggest that Spain is coming under increasing political pressure to seek assistance. Yet the stigma is too much and Spanish officials recognize that if asks for assistance, many investors will conclude that the country is insolvent…

Euro area Housing markets: a temperature gaugeDanske Bank (pdf)

Spanish rescue draws closer as Cyprus bucklesThe Telegraph
Spain's ruling party has begun to crack under pressure, signalling for the first time that the country may need a European rescue to shore up its banking system.

Troika Statement on the Fourth Review Mission to PortugalIMF
The program remains on track amidst continued challenges… The ambitious 2012 fiscal deficit target remains within reach.

Portugal Bails Out Three BanksZH

Grodzki Says Failing Spanish Banks Should Be ClosedBB (mp3)

Schmieding Says European Deals Will Wait for ElectionsBB (mp3)

Will rates stay low, QE or no?alphaville / FT
JP Morgan, Deutsche Bank commentary

Goldman's Confidence That QE Will Be Announced On June 20 "Has Grown"ZH
Our baseline remains that Fed officials will purchase a mixture of mortgages and long-term Treasuries,

Fed policy: So many risks, so few toolsMacroScope / Reuters
there is not very much more the central bank can do to effectively boost economic growth and bring down unemployment… That doesn’t mean the Fed won’t try.

Pond Says More Fed Stimulus Is `Increasingly Likely'BB (mp3)

Time for the Draghi and Bernanke PutsHumble Student
The ECB is likely to reduce interest rates in the face of economic weakness in the eurozone, but don't expect too much more…My guess is that investors looking for hints of another round of QE from the Fed on Thursday are likely to be disappointed.

ECB preview: We expect ECB to cut in JuneDanske Bank (pdf)

George Soros and the two choices facing EuropeFelix Salmon / Reuters

Why People Are Going Nuts Over The New George Soros Speech On EuropeBI

Why George Soros thinks the euro will surviveWonkblog / WP

Soros on the EuroKrugman / NYT

Soros Gives Germany Three Months to Fix EuropeMarketBeat / WSJ

The Big Picture (Updated)The Short Side of The Long
Very long-term charts and discussion

How Much Further Can Financial Stocks Fall?ZH

Market Valuation Overviewdshort

Equity prices vs. inflation expectationsSober Look
either inflation expectations have declined too sharply (now at 0.82%) or US equities are still overpriced.

Global PMI Falls to 50.6, Five Month LowGlobal Macro Monitor

Business Cycle Monitor Danske Bank (pdf)
PMIs take a hit as euro crisis deepens

Our Most Widely Ignored Public IntellectualsThe American Prospect
Why don't those in power listen to economists Joseph Stiglitz and Paul Krugman?

Goldman Cuts Q2 GDP Forecast To 2.0% Following Miserable Factory OrdersZH

Global Banks Cut Lending in Response to Economic SlowdownDealBook / NYT
Looks at the latest BIS quarterly report

Stress IndicatorsSaxo Bank
Steen Jakobsen: We continue to see a lack of REAL credit dollars - the world has never printed more money, but the US dollars available for credit have decreased by USD 600 bln since last year.

When Macro Meets MicroZH
J.P.Morgan: But I cannot recall such an extreme dichotomy before, characterized by rising profits, mountains of sidelined cash and low equity valuations on one hand, and a set of almost biblical macroeconomic risks on the other.

Greg Ip’s risk hairballFelix Salmon / Reuters
“And that sort of disengagement,” says Ip, “can make economic pessimism self-fulfilling.” Unless, of course, governments take advantage of their ultra-cheap funding to step in with massive economic stimulus.

How Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates Uses Correlations in Risk AnalysisMinyanville

SNB Prints At Pace Not Seen Since EUR/CHF Parity In August 2011ZH

Quick Note on Today's Price ActionMarc to Market


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