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Tuesday, June 26

26th Jun - US Open: Expected expectations

Rangish-bearish day, for more see today’s earlier EU Open: Conservation is just conversation and last night’s US Close: Everything, Squared. I will probably push out a special "summit watch" post tomorrow. Stay above the surface.

Joke of the Day: EU member states on Monday (25 June) agreed to create a European endowment for democracy aimed to encourage "deep and sustainable" change in societies struggling under oppressive regimes. So when are they going to address the undemocratic nature of the EU?

Frontrunning – ZH
The Lunch Wrap – FT
EM New York headlines – FT
Overnight summary – Bank of America / ZH
Today’s front pages – presseurop
Daily press summary – Open Europe
  Moody’s downgrades 28 Spanish banks; El Mundo: Spanish Economy Minister considering asking for €50bn bailout package

Morning MarketBeat: Stocks Still Rangebound – WSJ
Broker Note Briefing – WSJ
Morning Take-Out – NYT
Marking Time, Dollar Softer – Marc to Market
The T Report – TF Market Advisors
EZ remains on hold – Kiron Sarkar / The Big Picture

Pre-market Commentary – Marketwatch
Pre-Market Trading – CNNMoney          
Pre-Market – NASDAQ
US Equity Preview – Bloomberg
Earnings & Events – The Street
MarketCurrents – Seeking Alpha

Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
The Euro Crisis Blog – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
European 10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices

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Waiting for the summitMacroScope / Reuters
A strong signal of intent at the summit might settle the markets, not least because it could be crucial in persuading the ECB to hold the fort if needed, although its levers are not problem-free.

Towards a genuine economic and monetary union, or something alphaville / FT
The leaked draft from Monday, made by the eurocrats for the summit.

EU hopes for 'big leap' with fiscal, political union planeuobserver

EU could rewrite eurozone budgetsFT
if you can’t access, summary here

Pricing the German costs of a euro break-upalphaville / FT
The German ministry of finance has done just such an analysis, according to Der Spiegel, and found that the costs of such a break-up and the re-introduction of the D-Mark would lead to an up to 10 per cent fall in GDP in the first year. Unemployment would surge to its record high of over 5m.

BizDaily: Banking disunionBBC (mp3)
Why Finland plans to torpedo the latest proposal to solve the eurozone crisis: banking union. In the second of Business Daily's series on the Knowledge Economy, why one Italian university plans to teach all of its classes in English. Plus, how fuel subsidies are as addictive as heroin - but mean you stay cool even on the hottest days.

Five questions for eurozone politicians and economistsbruegel
1) Why are countries in a monetary union more prone to sovereign debt crises than countries outside a monetary union? 2) How to insure a burning house? 3) How to share liquidity risks and solvency risks in a monetary union? 4) How to enforce prudent macro-economic policy in individual countries 5) How to ensure the long-run political legitimacy of the EMU?

What Will Germany Do?John Mauldin / The Big Picture
It May Be Time To Say “Auf Wiedersehen” vs. Germany Has To Stay: A Riposte

Reservations Please: Merkel, Party Of "Nein"Mark Grant / ZH
There are those that wait and hope and pray that there will be Divine Intervention…normal European Union trick which we have witnessed a number of times now where conclusions are made and paraded around in the public which are based upon highly suspicious data and I am being kind here.

US twists while Germany sticks! Forced EUR selling ahead?Saxo Bank
Chancellor Merkel provided a concise rebuttal of the mutualisation request…If we add the comments from Jens Weidmann…then we begin to see a pattern emerging. Germany has concerns, issues or outright objection to just about every measure that has been suggested which could improve the situation in Europe. That continues to be a worry. 

The Spanish bank buy-back riddlealphaville / FT
So, this is a bit odd. Why would some Spanish banks, which have such high capital needs right now, have been engaged in fairly significant share repurchases over the past few months?

Lucky Fools, ECB and the ISIN SwitchAlea

Final rules on banks' disclosure of the composition of their capitalBIS

Some questions on China’s trade dataASA

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