Spain finally made the official request for help. Otherwise, all eyes are on the EU summit, and listening to what the leaders (=Merkel) have to say before the event. Also, given the big slowdown the US unemployment figures are of interest, as another QE depends on bad data. Markets looking softer, but at the moment just catching up to "bad macro & no QE".
Earlier on MoreLiver’s Daily:
Weekender: Off-Topic: Alan Turing’s 100th birthday
Weekender: Trading & Markets: one’s profit is other’s mistake
Weekender: Euro Crisis: everything ’at play’
Weekender: Weekly Support: weekly reviews and previews, just
updated!
The Lunch
Wrap – FT
EM New York
headlines – FT
Overnight
summary – Bank
of America / ZH
Today’s
front pages – presseurop
Daily press
summary – Open
Europe
New briefing:
Funding needs of Spanish banks could top €110 billion
Morning
MarketBeat: Stakes Increasing for EU Summit – WSJ
Broker Note
Briefing – WSJ
Morning
Take-Out – NYT
Dollar
Bounces Back, Pessimism Persists in Europe – Marc
to Market
The T
Report – TF
Market Advisors
Secondary
Market Purchases are NOT the Answer for Europe
Pre-market
Commentary – Marketwatch
Pre-Market
Trading – CNNMoney
Pre-Market
– NASDAQ
US Equity Preview – Bloomberg
Earnings
& Events – The
Street
MarketCurrents
– Seeking
Alpha
Debt
crisis: live – The
Telegraph
The Euro
Crisis Blog – WSJ
FX Options
Analytics – Saxo
Bank
European
10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices
EURO CRISIS
It is not just the crisis that is intensifying;
so too is the debate on the potential solutions. This column proposes what to
do if Spain is next to fail.
German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble
believes that only further EU integration can save the euro. SPIEGEL spoke with
him about how the currency can be strengthened, the hurdles presented by
Germany's constitution and what the 27-member club might look like in five
years.
If Greece defaults, what about Spain, what about the rest
of the Eurozone, and what about the rest of Europe? “Contagion” has become a buzzword
in international economics. This column asks whether markets are responding
irrationally to the nightmare scenario or finally waking up to reality.
Goldman
Sachs letter
The latest EU summit will be held in Brussels on Thursday and
Friday and once again it is a ‘summit to end all summits’
EURO CRISIS: SPAIN
Scramble For Spanish 'Bail-In' Trade Sends
Spanish Bank CDS Soaring – ZH
Moody's To Junk Spanish Banking System In Hours – ZH
Testing for forebearance – alphaville
/ FT
Spanish bank write-downs on residential
mortgage loans, eh.
BIS ANNUAL REPORT
Central bank existential crisis confirmed – alphaville
/ FT
There is, it appears, a marked admission that
central banks may be losing control.
When scientists become hedge fund managers – alphaville
/ FT
an actual estimate of the cost to society of
scientists becoming hedge fund managers. (from the BIS report
OTHER
Simon
Johnson’s piece
Simon Johnson: JP Morgan at Risk if Euro Breaks
Up – naked
capitalism
Comments
the above
Enter, the Blindside Recession – Hussman Funds
A Long Wait to The Next FOMC Meeting – Tim
Duy’s Fed Watch
The fundamental problem is that the Fed has
failed to communicate the trigger point for additional policy. CR reads the tea leaves and concludes the bar
is reasonably low; Bullard leaves the meeting thinking the bar is high. The reality is likely somewhere in
between. I tend to think QE in August
requires some pretty clear evidence that the labor market is moving in the
wrong direction, and I am hesitant to think we will get enough such evident
before then. The next employment report
and the weekly initial claims reports will be critical.
Is There a Limit on Central Bank's Ability to
Inflate? – Mish’s
In a credit-based economy such as the US and Europe, attitudes are the key. The Fed can
print at will, but it cannot make consumers spend or businesses expand or hire.
The Fed is desperately (and foolishly) trying to get consumers to lever up once
again, however attitudes of consumers have changed.
More constructive on stocks – Humble
Student
I am not turning bullish, but neutral on the
market's near-term outlook for the following reasons: 1) Market psychology, 2) Signs
of turnaround in China and Europe, 3) My institutional fund flows model has turned positive.
Commodities Forecast (Update) – Danske
Bank (pdf)
Weak macroeconomic backdrop weighs on prices