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Saturday, August 17

17th Aug - Weekender: Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here

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Friday Close
Markets – Between The Hedges

Friday Europe macro
Euro-Area Exports Increase 3% as Inflation Holds Below 2% – BB
July 2013 Euro area annual inflation stable at 1.6% – Europa
June 2013 Euro area international trade in goods surplus EUR 17.3 bn – Europa

Friday US macro
Michigan Consumer Sentiment: A Disappointing Decline – dshort
Consumer Sentiment Dips – WSJ
U.S. consumer sentiment weakens in August – Reuters
U.S. consumer confidence dips; housing starts miss forecasts – Reuters
U.S. Consumer Confidence Falls From a Six-Year High – BB

Housing Starts and Building Permits Inline With Forecasts – Bespoke
Quarterly Housing Starts by Intent compared to New Home Sales – Calculated Risk
These two charts explain the housing market – Wonkblog / WP
Analysis: As Long as Job Market Improves, Housing Has Room to Run – WSJ
Housing Expansion May Be Getting Scaled Back – WSJ
Housing Starts in U.S. Rise on Rebound in Multifamily Properties – BB

Productivity Advanced in Second Quarter – WSJ
Productivity in U.S. Rises Above Forecast as Output Grows – BB

Weekly Close
US: Stocks Have Worst Week Of 2013 With Bonds Massacred; Precious Metals Soar – ZH
Weekly Scoreboard – Between The Hedges
US market portrait – Portfolio Probe

The Economist’s Weeklies:

The Weekenderalphaville / FT

Succinct summation of week’s eventsThe Big Picture

The Week That Was – ZH

Schedule for WeekCalculated Risk
The key reports this week are July existing home sales on Wednesday, and July new home sales on Friday. The Kansas City Fed will host the annual Jackson Hole symposium from Thursday through Saturday. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will not be attending, although the likely next Fed Chair Janet Yellen will be attending but not speaking.

Economic CalendarBerenberg (pdf)
US Fed minutes: more hints on liquidity tapering * Eurozone PMIs: broadening recovery * US housing data: modest impact of higher mortgage rates

Economic CalendarHandelsbanken (pdf)

S&P 500 Earnings Week AheadReuters

Wall Street Week AheadReuters
After Wall Street's biggest weekly decline since June and the worst week this year for the Dow average, investors will be searching for a rebound. But the best gains may not be at home as investors take notice of an improved outlook in Europe.

(video) Europe Week AheadReuters

(video) Asia Week AheadReuters

(video) US Week AheadReuters

Weekly Focus: Strong data is good - isn’t it?Danske Bank (pdf)
In the US minutes from the July FOMC meeting will give us more information on Fed’s thinking about the timing and pace of tapering. We doubt Jackson Hole will provide new insights into
Fed’s monetary policy thinking. In the euro area the positive sentiment is expected to continue as both PMI figures and consumer confidence should increase. Chinese flash HSBC manufacturing PMI is expected to indicate that growth in China is not slowing severely.

Week Ahead Nordea (pdf) 
US: FOMC minutes and the Jackson Hole conference will take place next week and will be closely watched by markets. Any hints regarding when tapering could start will likely result in large market reactions. Euro zone: PMIs are likely to see continued improvement in the Euro zone next week. However, as rates move higher, the probability for Draghi trying to talk them down will increase.
China: HSBC flash PMI is out on Thursday and will likely set the tone for markets on Thursday morning.

Weighing the Week Ahead A Dash of Insight 
Will rising interest rates kill the stock rally? There are two sharply divergent viewpoints: 1) It is all about the Fed…. 2) It is all about the economy.

FX Outlook: Noise to Signal Ratio Rises Marc to Market
Market positioning, amid thin conditions, appears to be the best explanation for the seemingly inexplicable price action in the foreign exchange market.  The consensus has been bullish the dollar on ideas that the Fed will be the first of the major central banks to begin pulling away from the extraordinary policies pursued in the aftermath of the end of the credit cycle.  However, this story has been increasingly eclipsed by the reflation story in Europe, and to a less extent, China.  The resulting increase in interest rates, in turn, adds to the pressure on many emerging markets.

Weekly Credit UpdateDanske Bank (pdf)

Emerging Markets Briefer - August 2013Danske Bank (pdf)

Emerging: Week Ahead – beyondbrics / FT

Economic Calendar –
Economic Calendar – BB
EU calendar –

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