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Thursday, August 1

1st Aug - Special : ECB Watch

First the ECB- and live commentary links, followed by previews and relevant macro releases published earlier.

Watch out for increased communication (forward guidance, minutes), some follow-up on ABS and related measures, no rate cuts expected. I expect verbal intervention in EURUSD, thus my bearish view on the pair.

Webcast of the press conference ECB
Introductory statements to the press conference ECB
1-Aug Introductory statement to the press conferenceECB


Live commentary links:

Live: ECB, BOE Rate DecisionsMoneyBeat / WSJ

LIVE commentaryBI

Live coverageMoney Supply / FT


ECB wrap-up: Draghi dovish, but not more dovishNordea

Draghi Part IMarc to Market
Draghi Part IIMarc to Market

ECB holds rates, confirms no move for 'extended period'Reuters

The ECB left interest rates at a record low 0.5 percent on Thursday and affirmed that they will remain there for some while to come and could yet fall further.

Draghi Signals Worst Is Over as ECB Reiterates Low RatesBB
Draghi said economic indicators signal the euro region is past the worst of its longest-ever recession, while reiterating that interest rates will stay low for the foreseeable future.

HIGHLIGHTS-Draghi comments at ECB news conferenceReuters

The ECB Press Conference: Five Key TakeawaysMoneyBeat / WSJ

ECB set to become more transparenteuobserver

Minutes are no longer heresyFree exchange / The Economist
The ECB keeps its minutes secret for 30 years. Publishing them would bring it closer to central-bank best practice (a field that it once led by pioneering regular press conferences).

Short-term euro rates rise in defiance of Draghi guidanceReuters
Euro zone money market rates rose on Thursday, in defiance of "forward guidance" from ECB’s Draghi, with investors disappointed policymakers did not discuss interest rates cuts.

Expectations of rate hikes in money markets unwarranted Danske Bank (pdf)

Comment - ECB kept all policy rates unchanged Danske Bank (pdf)



Will Draghi Open the Book on ECB Meetings? (And Other Questions)WSJ


Draghi’s Choice – Hawkish Dove or Dovish Hawk?MoneyBeat / WSJ

Europe’s good news, bad newsMacroBusiness

You say you want ECB minutes? We got minutesMoney Supply / FT

Euro-Region Unemployment Unchanged as Economy Improves – BB

Euro-Area July Inflation Holds at 1.6% as Recession Lingers – BB


In Europe, the case for… optimism? alphaville / FT

Euro-Area Economic Confidence Jumps to Highest in 15 MonthsBB


Europe Passes The Inflection Point (Or Why LTRO3 Is Inevitable)ZH

ECB Officials Want Central Bank to Publish MinutesWSJ

ECB Preview: Transparency on the agendaDanske Bank (pdf)


Draghi did it - Chart of the weekBerenberg

Measuring Mario Draghi’s Promises 1 Year OnMoneyBeat / WSJ

LTRO payback, Eonia tightening editionalphaville / FT


Monetary Developments JuneECB (pdf)

M1 sends strong growth signal but bank lending continues to contractDanske Bank (pdf)

ECB Says Bank Loans to Private Sector Shrink Most on RecordBB

Loans to the private sector dropped 1.6 percent from a year earlier. That’s the 14th monthly decline and the biggest since the start of the single currency in 1999.

Euro zone credit slump deepens in June as loans to business shrinkReuters

Loans to private sector shrink 1.6 pct * Weak lending figures highlight impediment to recovery * ECB meets next week, no change in rates expected

How Spain Just Made Mario Draghi's Nightmare WorseZH

ECB preview: More clarity on forward guidance?Nordea

Terrible Eurozone loan data will keep ECB dovishTradingFloor

Terrible Eurozone monetary data will consign to the dustbin any thoughts that next week's European Central Bank meeting might be hawkish. But don't expect concrete dovish measures either - Germany's looming elections will legislate against that.

Glimmers of hope in the euro areaSober Look

Given the persistent weakness in credit growth across the Eurozone (see discussion), the latest quarterly ECB survey of banks brought some welcome news. It seems that demand for loans is declining slower than in Q1 and credit tightening in the euro area is subsiding.