Google Analytics

Monday, August 5

5th Aug - EU Open

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter or Facebook

News roundup – Between The Hedges
The 6am Cut London – alphaville / FT
Emerging Markets Headlines – beyondbrics / FT
Europe Morning MoneyBeat: Small Gains Likely Ahead of PMIs – WSJ

3 Numbers To Watch: EU Sentix, EU retail sales, US ISM servicesTradingFloor
The EU Sentix Investor Confidence Index and EU retail sales will shed new light on the prospects for recovery in Europe. Later, the ISM Services Index for the US is scheduled for release.

Market Preview: EU retail sales & Sentix investor confidence eyedTradingFloor
European markets are likely to open marginally firmer Monday. Investors await today’s EU retail sales data which is expected to show a decline in June. Also, Eurozone investor confidence and services PMI in Europe and the US will be in focus.

Danske DailyDanske Bank (pdf)
Final euro area service PMIs will most likely confirm that the euro area is moving from recession to slow growth.... Euro area retail sales are expected to decline as indicated by the first country releases.... In the US we expect the ISM non-manufacturing index to rebound somewhat after last month’s drop and return to a level above 53

Market comment: Post-payrolls rally not enough to change the bigger pictureNordea
US Treasuries with a huge rally post-payrolls * Technical picture still not particularly flattering for bonds * S&P 500 reaches new record highs again * US employment report disappointing, but not without a mixed message * Berlusconi verdict no blow for Italian bonds * LTRO repayments * Continuing at a rather steady but slow pace * More specific forward guidance from BoE this week * Issuance activity subsiding

Viikolla katseet BoE:n rahapolitiikassa * USA:n työllisyyden kehitys pettymys * USA:n valtiolainakorot laskussa

Aamukatsaus Tapiola (pdf)
Heinäkuun aikana eurooppalaisissa sektori-ETF:ssä oli nähtävissä pääomien virtaamista syklisiin osakesektoreihin, mikä viittaa sijoittajien odottavan pitkään kaivattua talouskäännettä Euroopassa. Markkinan suunta:  USA:n pehmeä työmarkkinadata ei huolettanut markkinaa, elvytys saattaa saada jatkoaikaa. Osakefutuurit plussalla, indikoiden nousuavausta OMX HEX:iin. 2Q13-tuloskauden kommentit: Revenio Group, Ilkka. 2Q13-tuloskauden ”välitinpäätös” - 58% OMX HEX yhtiöstä raportoinut: Liikevaihdot ovat olleet odotettua heikommat, tulokset ovat olleet selvästi heikommat. Eurooppalaisten osakesektori-ETF:ien seuranta: Heinäkuussa pääomia siirtyi syklisiin sektoreihin.


Playing catch-up at the Bank of England mainly macro

Global Political Risk: Surveying the PIIGS naked capitalism

Bundesbank gold holdings declineSober Look
This is somewhat surprising, given that most central banks have been buyers of gold recently and Bundesbank has always been committed to maintaining its gold reserve.

Can Larry Summers play nice with other financial regulators?Wonkblog / WP

Ben Bernanke: Man of MysteryWSJ

Septaper or not?Tim Duy’s Fed Watch
Overall, I still tend to lean toward September over December, with the lack of a press conference being the reason to not settle on October. 

Update: Four Charts to Track Timing for QE3 TaperingCalculated Risk
Clearly the economy will have to pickup before the FOMC would start to taper QE3 purchases in December. (September tapering seems less likely now since the key data has been worse than forecast, but still not impossible).

Short Australian dollar is becoming a crowded tradeSober Look

Market perception of China macro risk set to riseHumble Student

Four Dimensions of the Investment ClimateMarc to Market
Interactive Global Valuation HeatmapsZH