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Saturday, August 31

31st Aug - Weekender: Linkfest

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Brussels blog round up 24 – 30 AugustEuropp / LSE
Europe reacts to Cameron’s defeat over Syria, Merkel and Steinbrück’s televised debate, and is France moving to the right?

Aging EuroskepticsKrugman / NYT

The European sovereign debt crisis - past, present and futureBIS (pdf)
Speech by Dr Andreas Dombret, Member of the Executive Board of the Deutsche Bundesbank, to participants of the GMAP of Fletcher School, Berlin, 26 August 2013.

Corporate finance and economic activity in the euro areaECB (pdf)
European Central Bank Occasional papers by Task Force of the Monetary Policy Committee of the ESCB

A market-based approach to sector risk determinants and transmission in the euro areaECB (pdf)
European Central Bank Working papers by Martín Saldías

The global effects of the euro debt crisisECB (pdf)
European Central Bank Working papers by Livio Stracca

Asset Allocation and Monetary Policy: Evidence from the EurozoneHaraldhau
The eurozone has a single short-term nominal interest rate, but monetary policy conditions measured by either real short-term interest rates or Taylor rule residuals varied substantially across countries in the period from 2003-2010.

German elections: New momentum on EU issuesDanske Bank (pdf)
The most likely outcome of the federal election on 22 September is that Angela Merkel (CDU) will continue as Chancellor.

Popular with Populists: Euroskeptic Party Attracts Right WingSpiegel
Since its launch in April, euroskeptic party Alternative for Germany has been accused of peddling right-wing sentiments. A new study establishes the party's centrist status, but shows that it still attracts right-wing populist attention.

Finnish economy: Focus on structural reformsDanske Bank (pdf)
Finnish government announced on 29 August a budget for 2014. The budget was unsurprising as the agreement was heavily based on the agreement the six-party coalition made in March. Mild austerity continues as planned.

The Driving Force behind the Boom and Bust in Construction in EuropeThe Big Picture

Portugal’s economic recovery: Between bail-outsThe Economist

Spain Reports Current Account Surplus as Rajoy Predicts RecoveryBB

US: Revisiting the debt ceilingDanske Bank (pdf)
Once again we are heading for a budget battle in the US Congress.

Curious timing for Fed self-doubt on monetary policyMacroScope / Reuters

Why Larry Summers was always the favorite for FedWonkblog / WP

Federal Reserve: Choosing the chairmanThe Economist

The Federal Reserve: Dove v doveThe Economist

How the Fed chair race became a public circus, and why it mattersWonkblog / WP

Banks in China: Too big to hailThe Economist

China’s big banks: Giant reality-checkThe Economist

Indian rupee resumes slide as fears grow for slowing economyReuters

RBI sells dollars directly to oil importers; kicks the can down the roadSober Look

Macroeconomic impact assessment of OTC derivatives regulatory reformsBIS (pdf)
In its preferred scenario, the group found economic benefits worth 0.16% of GDP per year from avoiding financial crises. It also found economic costs of 0.04% of GDP per year from institutions passing on the expense of holding more capital and collateral to the broader economy. This results in net benefits of 0.12% of GDP per year.

Market-based bank capital
Today’s regulatory rules – especially the ineffective capital requirements – have led to costly bank failures. This column proposes a new, robust approach that uses market information but does not depend upon markets being ‘right’.

‘I take your hypothetical scenario of counterparty failure, and raise you a bank resolution regime…’alphaville / FT
Imagine spending an entire career evaluating bad things that might happen to financial institutions. It’s no mere thought experiment done in passing, but rather a task that one slaves over in excruciating detail. For years upon years on a constantly moving chessboard of potential disaster. So, who wants to be a regulator?

Report to G20 Leaders on monitoring implementation of Basel III regulatory reformsBIS (pdf)

Monetary Policy Expectations at the Zero Lower Bound BIS (pdf)
San Francisco Fed Working Papers by Glenn D. Rudebusch

Risks to price stability, the zero lower bound and forward guidance: a real-time assessmentECB (pdf)
European Central Bank Working papers by Günter Coenen, Anders Warne

Identifying conventional and unconventional monetary policy

Monetary policy isn’t a game. OR IS IT???Wonkblog / WP
Some of the 12 reserve banks across the country have taken it upon themselves to create online games — of varying degree of cleverness — to help explain the esoteric work of the nation’s central bank.These are the Games of the Federal Reserve.

Horns of a trilemmaThe Economist
How can the emerging economies protect themselves from the rich worlds monetary experiments?

The End of the Emerging-Market PartyProject Syndicate
Enthusiasm for emerging markets is evaporating, as their stocks and bonds are down for the year and their economies are slowing. And, with stable or lower export prices reducing real growth and causing their currencies to weaken in real terms, the buoyant performance of the recent past is unlikely to return any time soon.

Can Brazil's Currency Be Saved?BB

Banks, economists and politicians: just follow the moneymainly macro

How can you get an economy INTO a liquidity trap?Worthwhile

Macroeconomists at WarKrugman / NYT

Macro workers and macro warsmainly macro
I really think it is much more productive to try and understand someone’s opposing point of view than just be rude about it. Most academic macroeconomists are just trying to advance the discipline by getting their papers published, and are certainly not consciously trying to defend some ideological viewpoint.

Migration Is Expensive, but Pays Off in ProductivityBB
Migrants are the big economic winners from migration, because they move from countries in which workers are paid little to ones in which they are paid a lot.

Global house prices: Mixed messagesThe Economist

Common pitfalls in correlations analysisTradingFloor

Reshuffling The (Historical Return) DeckThe Capital Spectator

Was the World Economic Crisis Avoidable?Economonitor

Market regime change - is your risk manager even aware of it?Sober Look

Michael Mauboussin, Interview No. 4Farnam Street
Once you understand luck’s role, you can understand how to approach the activity more thoughtfully, including how you develop skill and interpret results.

The Most Surprising Things About America, According To An Indian International StudentBI
20 Things 20-Year-Olds Don't GetForbes

Top 15 trading movies: 2013 editionAll About Alpha

Psychology of Intelligence AnalysisCIA / The Big Picture

The Oil Drum, peak oil and why some good blogs don’t lastalphaville / FT

Fighting for Sumo Harsh Life Deters Would-Be WrestlersSpiegel
Sumo is as Japanese as Mount Fuji or the cherry blossom festival, but the traditional sport is facing problems. Deterred by the harsh training and life of privation that comes with joining a stable, dwindling numbers of boys are interested in becoming sumo wrestlers.

How to read and understand a scientific paper: a guide for non-scientistsViolent Metaphors

What Are Your Favorite “Non-Boring” Business Books?The Big Picture

Michael Lewis on Writing, Money, and the Necessary Self-Delusion of Creativitybrain pickings

Document No.9: The Party Attacks Western Democratic IdealsWSJ
As articulated in Document No. 9, a memo by senior leaders to Party members, the threat of Western democratic ideals to Communist ideology and to the principle of Party leadership is being taken more seriously than at any time in the recent past.

Leonardo DiCaprio and Martin Scorsese Explore the Funny Side of Financial Depravity in The Wolf of Wall StreetVulture

When the textbook industry goes the way of the music industryWorthwhile

Investment bankers’ idea of what is normal is distortedIrish Times
All the studies show that more than half the deals bankers have talked clients into undertaking destroy rather than create value

On the Legalisation of Marijuana & the War on DrugsNoahpinion

Why Spend Money on Space Exploration? Isaac Asimov’s Witty 1969 Letterbrain pickings

What is the value of unique?alphaville / FT
Go forth and multiplyFelix Salmon / Reuters
Prepare to be assimilatedalphaville / FT

Professori Matti Virén IS:ssa: Hallituksen toimet eivät miljardeja, vaan miljoonia Verkkouutiset

Mikä maksaa? Suomi-talkoot - Mitä tässä taloudessa nyt oikein tarttis tehdä?YLE
Juho-Pekka Rantalan vieraina Vesa Vihriälä Elinkeinoelämän tutkimuslaitoksesta, Pekka Sauramo Palkansaajien taloudellisesta tutkimuslaitoksesta sekä Janne Huoveri Pellervon taloudellisesta tutkimuslaitoksesta. .

EU:n puolustuspolitiikkaBrysselin Kone / YLE
Jo parikymmentä vuotta sitten Maastrichtin sopimuksessa katsottiin, että poliittinen unioni voi johtaa yhteiseen puolustukseen. Kuinka tässä on edetty? Haastateltavana on erikoistutkija Tommi Koivula Maanpuolustuskorkeakoulusta.

EU ja aiemmat valtioliitot - haastateltavana professori Erkki PihkalaBrysselin Kone / YLE
Professori emeritus Erkki Pihkala on opettanut taloushistoriaa Helsingin kauppakorkeakoulussa. Hän on sitä mieltä, että EU on ainutlaatuinen kokeilu, jonka kaltaista historiassa ei aiemmin ole ollut, vaikka maailmassa ja Euroopankin alueella on ollut erilaisia valtioliittoja, liittovaltioita ja tulliliittoja.

Eurokriisi ja tuloerotBrysselin Kone / YLE
Miten eurokriisi tai sen eri ratkaisuvaihtoehdot vaikuttavat EU-kansalaisten tuloeroihin? Ja olisiko jo tämän kriisin aikaan syytä aloittaa analyyttinen keskustelu siitä, kannattaako meidän olla mukana eurossa, vaikka EU:ssa haluaisimmekin olla? Haastateltavana on vanhempi tutkija Markku Lehmus Palkansaajien tutkimuslaitoksesta.

EU-politiikkaa eurokriisin varjossaBrysselin Kone / YLE
Onko Suomelle ollut hyödyllistä pysyä eurossa, miten taas uudelleen esiin kaivettu ajatus euromaiden yhteisistä velkakirjoista etenee ja kuinka EU-alueen talous näyttää kehittyvän?
Haastateltavana on Etlan toimitusjohtaja Vesa Vihriälä.

Ykkösaamu: Suomi jäämässä jälkeenYLE
Budjettineuvotteluissa hallituksen rivit ovat toistaiseksi pitäneet yhtä, mutta päätöksistä ei ole vielä tietoa. Politiikan tutkija Erkka Railo arvioi, että lähipäivät näyttävät kuinka yhtenäisenä hallituspuolueet pysyvät. Pellervon taloustutkimuksen toimitusjohtaja Pasi Holm puolestaan kaipaa uudistuksia, joilla etumatkalla olevat Ruotsi ja Saksa saadaan kiinni. Syyrian tilannetta arvioimassa UPI:n ohjelmajohtaja Mika Aaltola, Pasi Myöhänen raportoi Britanniasta. EU-suurlähettilään paikalta eläkkeelle jäävä Jan Store toivoo Suomen palaavan vanhalle linjalle EU:ssa.