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Friday, August 30

30th Aug - Weekender: Best of the Week

The best articles from the ending week. Plenty of Finnish articles. Last week’s ‘Best of’ here.

Themes of the week: Federal Reserve continues to excite people, now that the rot has spread to the emerging markets and all kinds of negative feedback loops are discussed. Syria and European bright data were also notable.

Europe’s Single Bank Rule Book Falls Apart as North Races AheadBB
The goal of a single rule book for Europe’s banks is splintering even before it’s implemented as northern countries move ahead with tougher requirements to ward off the next boom-to-bust cycle.

Angela Merkel: Greece should never have been allowed in the euroThe Telegraph

Saving Europe’s Real HegemonProject Syndicate
Hans-Werner Sinn: Thus, it is clear how the losses incurred by the ECB’s de facto regional fiscal policy are to be avoided: the write-off costs will be transferred from the ECB to the ESM. This makes no difference to taxpayers, who will have to pay for both institutions’ losses in the same manner. But it has the advantage of allowing the ECB to present itself as having a clean balance sheet, thereby enabling it to maintain its current policy.

German elections: New momentum on EU issuesDanske Bank (pdf)
Both the current coalitions and a possible broad CDU-SPD coalition are pro euro. Euro-sceptic Alternative für Deutschland has only a round 3% of the votes in the polls. Nevertheless, the elections are important, because sensitive European issues have de facto been paused in order not to upset the German voters. Thus, we expect progress on issues from the Banking Union to Greek debt forgiveness to gain renewed momentum after the elections, no matter who wins.

Eurozone July stats ring credit crunch alarm bellsTradingFloor
July's monetary statistics from the Eurozone confirm that the credit crunch is not easing. The European Central Bank is unlikely to step in now though in the hope that a turnaround will come without intervention.

German Ifo index promises more growthTradingFloor
The German Ifo business climate index for August confirms the Germany's manufacturing-led recovery. Sectoral indices suggest the growth is spreading to other sectors as well, which should support growth in the coming months.

Why the Fed's bond-buying may not have helped the economyWonkblog / WP

Reverse Repos and Fed InterventionStephen Williamson
Will this be the ZLB/repo/collateral-scarcity solution we’ve been waiting for? alphaville / FT
According to the little-noticed second paragraph in the FOMC minutes to the July meeting, Simon Potter of the New York Fed discussed with the committee a possible addition to the Fed’s set of tools for tightening policy when the time comes — a “fixed-rate, full-allotment overnight reverse repurchase agreement facility”.

Fed Shouldn’t Ignore Emerging Market CrisisWSJ
Broadly, the thinking seems to be that emerging market economies brought their problems on themselves.

The Fed and the Emerging Markets PerilView / BB
Mohamed A. El-Erian:  On the way in, the surge in capital led to appreciating currencies, reduced export competitiveness and fueled pockets of financial excesses. The reversal began in earnest in May amid market perceptions that the Fed planned to taper its market interventions. On the way out, the flows have caused sharp exchange-rate depreciations, spikes in local interest rates, and fears of inflation and diminished growth.

Ahead of G20, China urges caution in Fed policy tapering Reuters
The U.S. Federal Reserve must consider when and how fast it unwinds its economic stimulus to avoid harming emerging markets, although the impact on China could be more limited compared with some other countries, senior Chinese officials said on Tuesday.

Monitor: Chinese credit crunch Danske Bank (pdf)
Credit expansion stabilised in July with seasonally adjusted new credit expanding CNY1.0trn after increasing CNY 0.8trn in June… The Chinese money market rate is not affected by market stress anymore…Macroeconomic data for July and August have so far been better than expected suggesting that the Chinese economy has bottomed out and might have started to recover again…

Don’t Blame the Fed for Asia’s ProblemsView / BB
A different kind of smugness has afflicted Asia in recent years. After the 2008 global crash, regional governments started believing their own press. They were convinced they had decoupled from the West.

Back from the beachMacroScope / Reuters
September could be one hell of a month and not just because of the U.S. central bank. Germany’s election on Sept. 22 is widely expected to return Merkel to power but the make-up of her coalition will go a long way to dictate Berlin’s approach to the euro zone thereafter… September could be crunch time for Italy too, the country labelled “too big to bail”.

Global FI Strategy – How much higher can we go?Nordea

Blogs review: Takeaways from Jackson Hole Bruegel
Although Jackson Hole was relatively calmer this year in the absence of market moving speeches, it featured a number of provocative research papers.

Emerging markets risk tipping into a ‘negative feedback loop’The Tell / MarketWatch
Whatever the terminology, fears are growing that the rising U.S. interest rates that struck a blow to emerging markets could come full circle to land a retaliatory punch on the developed world.

EM FX and Equities - Where Do We Stand Now?Marc to Market

Stephen S. Roach: The Global QE Exit CrisisProject Syndicate
Developing economies are now feeling the full force of the Fed’s moment of reckoning. They are guilty of failing to face up to their own rebalancing during the heady days of the QE sugar high. And the Fed is just as guilty, if not more so, for orchestrating this failed policy experiment in the first place.

The crisis is over. The challenges for central bankers are only beginning.Wonkblog / WP

What is shadow banking?
There is much confusion about what shadow banking is and why it might create systemic risks. This column presents shadow banking as ‘all financial activities, except traditional banking, which require a private or public backstop to operate’. The idea that shadow banking is something that needs a backstop changes how we think about regulation. Although it won’t be easy, regulation is possible.

Suomen talouden tilannekuva elokuussa 2013Suomen Pankki

Suhdanne-ennuste Elokuu 2013: Pientä ja hentoa kasvuaOP-Pohjola (pdf)

Näinkö tässä kävi?Tulli
EU-maiden osuus Suomen ulkomaankaupasta pudonnut jäsenyyden aikana

Kaikkien toimialojen luottamus heikkeni elokuussaEK

Liian kallis asuminen Suomen piilevä talousjarruJan Hurri / TalSa
Talouspäättäjät vaativat talouden rakenteisiin uudistuksia mutta vähät välittävät yhdestä Suomen raskaimmista talousjarrusta: asumisen kalleudesta. Suurimmat kaupungit ovat jo niin kalliita, että työn perässä muualta muuttaminen on mahdotonta – tai sitoo nuorten aikuisten voimat ja varat jopa vuosikymmenten velkaliekaan.

Suomesta tulossa rikkaan Ruotsin köyhä naapuriYLE
Ruotsi menee taloudellisesti aivan eri latuja kuin Suomi. Suomalaisten ja ruotsalaisten elintasoero on repeämässä yhtä suureksi kuin se oli 1970-luvulla. Pellervon taloustutkimus teki hämmästyttävän laskeman Euroopan komission keräämien tietojen perusteella.

Ruotsi rikastuu ja Suomi köyhtyy – mutta niinhän me sen olemme halunneetTyhmyri

Miksi euro - puolustuksen puheenvuoroJuhani Huopainen / US Puheenvuoro

(23.8.2013) Tässä oikea kauhuskenaario: 135 miljardin eläkevaroista hukataan 100 miljardia 20 vuodessaTE

Talousasiantuntijat tyytyväisiä uudistuksiin – AAA-luokitus säilyneeMTV3
Budjettiriihestä tuli odotetun vaikeaPolKom / SK
TE-analyysi: Rakenneohjelma vai rakennekuppaus? - Soini seinää vastenTE