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Thursday, August 1

1st Aug - US Close: ECB stood still, good US data

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Roundups & Commentary
News – Between The Hedges
Markets – Between The Hedges
Recap – Global Macro Trading
The Closer – alphaville / FT
US: Trannies Top; Bonds Bottom; Credit Crumbling – ZH

See my updated Special for the ECB.

Is Europe Back On Its Feet?Econmatters
Taking analysts by surprise, economic growth is improving, some of the riskiest European stocks are showing relative strength.

Is Europe Still in an Economic Downswing?PIIE
The IMF has revised its economic forecast downward to −0.6 percent for 2013,1 making it unlikely that the real economy will turn worse in the short run. But the latest euro area economic data project a gradual and surprising recovery in the second half of 2013.

New Model EuropeProject Syndicate
Enrico Letta: It is becoming increasingly clear that, if Europe is to overcome its crisis, business as usual will not suffice. We need a Europe that is more concrete, less rhetorical, and better suited to the current global economy.

Population trends cloud Europe's post-recession outlookReuters
Slowly but unsurely, Europe is facing up to population trends that will sap long-run economic growth and force nations to choose between cutting pensions and welfare benefits or paying higher taxes to maintain them.

S&P 500 Breaks 1700 for the First Time in History – The Reformed Broker
S&P 500 Hits 1700 – MoneyBeat / WSJ
Market Breakout – Bespoke

This graph calls the entire economic recovery into questionWonkblog / WP

What to Watch for in Friday’s Jobs ReportWSJ

Forecasts for July's Non Farm PayrollsBespoke

Employment Situation PreviewCalculated Risk
My guess is the BLS will report above the consensus of 175,000 jobs added in July. A key will be the unemployment rate (and participation rate) to see if unemployment is tracking the Fed's forecast for QE3 tapering.

5 Key Issues Facing the Next Fed ChiefMoneyWatch
Regulating and monitoring the financial system, improving communications, new monetary policy rules, maintaining independence, structural reform of the system

What kind of Fed chair would Larry Summers be?Wonkblog / WP
This March speech gives hints

Yellen vs. Summers? Depends on Risks of New Financial CrisisWSJ
President Obama will need to assign a probability to the prospect of another international financial crisis when he considers his pick for Fed chair. That should dictate which person is best for the job.

U.S. GDP revisions, inflation slippage tighten Fed’s policy bindMacroScope / Reuters
The September taper is off the table, despite what the myriad forecasters think and the Fed’s insistence that it’s data-dependent.

Early 3Q Data Lifts OffTim Duy’s Fed Watch
Early signs look good that the first half doldrums are easing.  But early signs are just that, early.  For example, tomorrow we get the employment report, which can be notorious volatile.  Moreover, we still have a wealth of data between now and the next FOMC meeting.  But if early data is any indication where the economy is heading, the FOMC will shift further toward reducing monetary accomodation between now and the next meeting.

Manufacturing ISM Smashes Expectations, Surging To 2011 Levels – ZH
ISM Manufacturing index increases in July to 55.4 – Calculated Risk
ISM Manufacturing Index Surges Above Expectations – dshort
ISM Manufacturing Spikes to Highest Level Since June 2011 – Bespoke
Analysis: ISM Is Good Sign for Second Half – WSJ
Manufacturing in U.S. Accelerates More Than Forecast – BB
US manufacturing ISM a major positive surprise – Danske Bank (pdf)

Asia’s inconvenient truth: credit is masking deteriorating fundamentalsbeyondbrics / FT
Another stimulating post from the always-readable Frederic Neumann at HSBC in Hong Kong, titled An inconvenient truth. In it, he looks at the relation between credit on one side and productivity and growth on the other.

Europe's factories grow, U.S. manufacturing at two-year highReuters
U.S. manufacturing grew in July at its fastest pace in two years while European factories snapped a two-year run of declining output, suggesting a prolonged euro zone recession may be near its end.

July Global PMI ScorecardThe Reformed Broker
Spot The Odd One Out – ZH

EMEA Weekly: Week 32Danske Bank (pdf)

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