31st Dec - 2014 preview

I will update this post when new stuff comes along.

31st Dec - 2013 reviews

I will update this post when new stuff comes along.

31st Dec - New Year's Eve - mostly Off-Topic

30th Dec - Final moments

27th Dec - Crazy FX

24th Dec - Eve Online

23rd Dec - Quiet ahead of holidays

22nd Dec - Weekender: Off-Topic

22nd Dec - Weekender: Markets & Economics

I am experimenting with covering blog debates.

22nd Dec - Weekender: The World

22nd Dec - Weekender: Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

21st Dec - Epic Split

21st Dec - Weekender: Best of the Week

Here are the ”best” from my posts of the ending week. Last week’s edition here.

Key issues:

Europe managed to agree on the second pillar of the banking union: who and how manages what to do with the failed banks, and more importantly, who pays for them. The deal is deemed to be complex, limited in scale and scope and thus ineffective.

In US, the Federal Reserve announced it will begin tapering its monthly asset purchases in January. Market reactions were muted, meaning that this time around the Fed had managed to guide the expectations and provide softer forward guidance in exchange.

Many institutions have published their monthly and annual reports, which take a look at the 2013 in review and try to preview the next year ahead. It looks like the current year is now over, with only limited “further reactions to taper” on the agenda. Time for holidays, then.

20th Dec - EZ's weak b-union, budget discipline

19th Dec - After Taper, EZ banking union and holidays

Maybe the euro zone’s real problem is that European economists are all either Keynesians or Austrians (or should I say “Germans”?) Where are the European monetarists? And Market Monetarists? – Market Monetarist

The Post-Taper special post has been updated. The news of the day is the agreement on the banking union's second pillar - resolution mechanism. Not everyone is happy, and it has still to be ratified by the parliament.

19th Dec - Special: After Fed's Taper

18th Dec - EZ's b-union, German IFO, PIMCO monthlies

18th Dec - Fed Watch

Schedule and vital links for December 18

19:00 GMT FOMC statement
19:30 GMT Bernanke press conference

Statement (19:00 GMT)

Economic projections (19:00 GMT, pdf)

Economic projections (19:00 GMT, html)

The Wall Street Journal’s Fed Statement Tracker
Previous statement (Oct 16)
Previous projection (Sep18, pdf)
Previous projection (Sep 18, html)

17th Dec - More Pre-Fed, EZ banking union

17th Dec - Need TP for my liquidity hole

16th Dec - France bad, waiting for Fed

14th Dec - Weekender: Linkfest

14th Dec - Weekender: Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

13th Dec - Weekender: Best of the Week

Here are the ”best” from my posts of the ending week.

13th Dec - Fears of taper while ECB doubted

12th Dec - Bail-ins & Risky Sovereigns

11th Dec - US budget deal

10th Dec - Europe forming the resolution fund

9th Dec - Strong euro

8th Dec - Weekend links

7th Dec - Weekender: Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

6th Dec - US employment surprises

5th Dec - ECB sits, payrolls next

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

Special: ECB Preview

Wednesday: ECB tomorrow, payrolls on Friday

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Weekender: Best of the Week

Weekender: Weekly Support

Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter or Facebook

EUROPE

Europe repeating all the errors of Japan as deflation draws closer – The Telegraph

The whole eurozone must have a higher inflation rate to lift the South far enough above the deflation line to gain breathing room

What is Wrong with the EU? – F. Saraceno

Eurostat just released the 2012 figures for poverty and social exclusion in the EU. The numbers are terrifying.

Americanized Labor Policy Is Spreading in Europe – NYT

This is what is known in Europe as “internal devaluation.”

Euro zone likely to backstop banks with promises rather than cash – Reuters

A Reuters survey of euro zone backstops showed very few governments have any money earmarked for such a purpose. If called upon, they would have to prop up their lenders with bonds or guarantees rather than cash.

The German Scapegoat – Project Syndicate

Recent criticism of Germany's external surplus overlooks the fact that the country represents just the tip of a Teutonic iceberg: All northern European countries with a Germanic language are running a current-account surplus. Indeed, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Sweden, and Norway are all running larger surpluses relative to GDP.

Germany’s economy isn’t as strong as Europe believes – Marketwatch

Merkel will most likely preside over Germany in a “grand coalition” with opposition parties. But this time around she may have been handed a poisoned political chalice. Germany faces significant economic challenges and risks, and its economic power and financial strength may be overstated.

The ECB’s big moment – Bruegel

…and the gradually apparent risks and opportunities of bank supervision

  BANK OF ENGLAND

The 8 things you need to know about the Autumn Statement – Money Supply / FT

BOE Keeps Rate at Record Low as Osborne Raises Forecasts – BB

UNITED STATES
The Volcker Rule: From Idea to Implementation (Almost) – WSJ

U.S. Regulators are expected to vote next week on a toughened version of the Volcker rule, a long-awaited provision of the Dodd-Frank financial law of 2010. The rule, named after former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, is designed to make banks less risky by limiting its trading. Here is a look at the rule’s nearly five-year evolution from idea to reality.

Ahead of the Employment Report – Tim Duy’s Fed Watch

With the fiscal shutdown in the rear-view mirror, Fed officials are turning their attention back to policy normalization.   They want to taper, but remain wary of pulling the trigger on tapering too quickly…one can make a reasonably solid argument for tapering if the November employment report adds to the recent string of 200k+ payroll gains.  My expectation is that even a positive report will not trigger a taper with month; instead, the statement is most likely to evolve to reflect a new emphasis on forward guidance.  But I can't rule out a tapering surprise.

Four Things to Know Before the Jobs Report – WSJ

The job market is picking up, but let’s not get carried away * It’s not just about jobs — it’s about how much those jobs pay * It’s the economy, stupid. * Fed, Fed, Fed.

  MACRO NUMBERS

GDP Soars To 3.6% On Inventories; Consumption Contribution Lowest Since 2009 – ZH

Economists React: ‘No Momentum’ in GDP Report – WSJ

Markets Drop on Stronger GDP Print; Break Out Your Taper Meters – WSJ

GDP Q3 Second Estimate Rises to 3.6% - dshort

Inventory Hoarding Accounts For Nearly 60% Of GDP Increase In Past Year – ZH

The economy grew 3.6 percent last quarter. Put away the Champagne – WaPo

US third quarter GDP: ‘all hat and no cattle’ – Reuters

Upbeat U.S. data points to growth momentum – Reuters

Economy in U.S. Grows at 3.6% Rate on Bigger Inventories – BB

Initial Claims Tumble To 298K As BLS Warns Of "Holiday Volatility" – ZH

Real GDP Per Capita: Another Perspective on the Economy – dshort

Comments on Q3 GDP and Investment – Calculated Risk

ASIA

Leading Japan Economist Says Abe On Right Track, But BOJ a Risk – WSJ

OTHER

EMEA Weekly – Danske Bank

FINNISH

Irlannin kauppataseen sisällä elää kelttiläinen yllätys – Tyhmyri

Keksittyä palveluvientiä eli Irlanti vielä kaukana toipumisesta

Elvytys, setelirahoitus, talouskuri ja leikkausohjelmat - umpikujan monet nimet – Henri Myllyniemi / US

Tulossa yritysten julkinen verovelkarekisteri – Verkkouutiset

Kymmenen syytä, miksi AY-liikkeisiin ei kannata liittyä! – Matias Härkönen / US

Huomasitko, että Suomi muuttui? "Palkkaratkaisusta neuvotellaan ensisijaisesti yritystasolla" – TE

Katainen: Suomi ei lähde rikkomaan EU:n talouskuria – Verkkouutiset

4th Dec - Special: ECB Preview

Post will be updated after the event.

4th Dec - ECB tomorrow, payrolls on Friday

3rd Dec - Doubts linger ahead of numbers

2nd Dec - Upbeat PMIs, waiting for Thu/Fri

1st Dec - Credit Guest: All that glitters ain't gold

Here is this week's colossal contribution from Macronomics.

1st Dec - Weekender: Best of the Week

Here are the ”best” from my posts of the ending week. Last week’s edition here.

1st Dec - Weekender: Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

1st Dec - Weekender: Linkfest