Here are the links to
the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last
week's 'Support' here.
Previously on
MoreLiver’s:
LAST WEEK
Friday Close
Market Prices – Global Macro Monitor
Europe: Stocks Slump To 2-Month Lows – ZH
US: Safe-Havens Sought
As Stocks Stumble To Worst Run In 4 Months – ZH
Weekly Scoreboard – Between
The Hedges
The Economist’s Weeklies:
The Weekender – beyondbrics
/ FT
Succinct summation of week’s events – The
Big Picture
NEXT WEEK
EVENTS / GENERAL
Schedule for Week – Calculated
Risk
Economic Calendar – Berenberg
US: near 50% chance
the Fed starts tapering * Eurozone: PMIs to show continued modest recovery * UK:
Unemployment and inflation steady, growth raised
Economic Calendar – Handelsbanken
UK Next Week's Agenda
and Wrap Up – Handelsbanken
Wall Street Week Ahead – Reuters
Will Fed end 2013 with
bang or whimper?
5 Things to Watch for
in Week of Dec. 16 – WSJ
Taper or not to taper, and if taper, will it crash the markets
Key events in the week
ahead by Goldman Sachs – ZH
The Week Ahead and
Beyond
– Marc
to Market
There are three main events in the days ahead that will set the stage of
the immediate post-holiday period: The
FOMC meeting, the flash euro area PMIs and the European summit.
Viikkokatsaus: Fed kertoo ”taaperostaan” – Nordea
Yhdysvalloissa
sopu budjetista * Tavallista tärkeämpi keskuspankkien viikko * Alustavia
ostopäällikköindeksejä
Several meetings of
European finance ministers and a summit of European Union leaders highlight a
busy week before the year-end holidays begin.
STRATEGY
Weekly Focus: Markets prepared for Fed tapering
– Danske
Bank
We expect the Fed to
announce tapering next week but also to balance it with strong forward guidance
to anchor bond yields. In Sweden, subdued inflation has paved the way for a
25bp rate cut by the Riksbank next week. We expect the European Council to
close a deal on banking union at last. In the euro area, we expect
manufacturing PMIs to confirm a moderate recovery is continuing. We do not
expect the Bank of Japan to ease further next week despite slower Q3 growth.
Week Ahead – Nordea
US: Next week’s key event is the two-day FOMC meeting, which concludes on
Wednesday. We believe there is close to a 50% chance that the Fed will announce
tapering of its asset purchases. Euro
area: Sentiment indicators for December will dominate the last full week
ahead of Christmas. We expect an increase in both PMIs, IFO and ZEW. Sweden: We expect the Riksbank to cut rates (Tuesday)
by 25bp next week. The reason is that the pain threshold for how low inflation
the Riksbank can accept has probably been passed.
Strategy: Fed tapering coming up... – Danske
Bank
Fed tapering coming up,
but markets are prepared. Periphery to continue strong performance. ECB under
more pressure from strong euro and falling inflation. EUR/USD pushed higher
again, JPY weakening to continue. Chinese production growth losing some
momentum.
CREDIT
Yield Forecast Update
- ECB to take a major step, by doing a minor cut – Danske
Bank
During the past month EUR swap rates have moved higher despite a
significant tightening in swap spreads and mixed data. This follows as the ECB
has proved reluctant to ease further and the likelihood of QE tapering by the
Fed in December has risen. In the US short-end rates have trickled lower, while
long-end rates have inched higher. The Fed has succeeded in detaching
expectations of future rate hikes from the decision to taper the QE programme,
thereby leaving the curve at record-steep levels
Euro Rates Update – Nordea
FI Viewpoint: The tea is getting colder – Nordea
Bonds under pressure –
long yields set to climb further in the near term. Profit taking in Spanish and
Italian bonds begun. Equity prices still falling. There is still hope in US
politics. More good news from the US economy. Norway moves on the counter-cyclical buffer – but
gradually. US PPI and more ECB speeches ahead.
Weekly Credit Update – Danske
Bank
Primary market
activity slowing with year-end approaching * Introduction of the European single resolution mechanism
* Counter-cyclical buffer introduced in Norway
Credit Markets Remain Calm (...For Now) – The Short Side of Long
Credit Markets Remain Calm (...For Now) – The Short Side of Long
Credit markets remain calm with QE3 still in full force * Instead of
de-leverging, credit is growing... so more pain is coming!
FOREX
The breadth of the
dollar's decline in recent weeks appeared to have narrowed to essentially the
euro and sterling. The take away from
last week's price action is that those two currencies have seen the upside
momentum fade and some deterioration of their technical condition. It could simply be some pre-cautionary
position adjustment ahead of the FOMC meeting and year-end.
Update On Currencies – The
Short Side of Long
Apart from Yen, commodity currencies have under performed! * Commodity
currencies performed superbly during 2000s * Hedge fund hold extreme bearish
bets on Aussie & Loonie
EMERGING
EMEA Weekly – Danske
Bank
Earlier this week we
published our FX Top Trades for 2014. Among our 10 top trades three were EMEA
FX trades.
EM FX Monocle - The aftershocks – Nordea
Although the tapering
earthquake is over, the aftershocks remain. EM FX volatility will likely be
driven up by the actual tapering in H1 2014 and elections in H2.
Emerging Market:
Preview – Marc to
Market
EM Week Ahead –
beyondbrics / FT
CALENDARS
Economic Calendar – investing.com
Economic Calendar – BB
EU calendar – europa.eu
Markkinakalenteri – Nordnet