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Saturday, December 14

14th Dec - Weekender: Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Friday Close
Market Prices – Global Macro Monitor
Europe: Stocks Slump To 2-Month Lows – ZH
US: Safe-Havens Sought As Stocks Stumble To Worst Run In 4 Months – ZH
Weekly Scoreboard – Between The Hedges

The Economist’s Weeklies:

The Weekenderbeyondbrics / FT

Succinct summation of week’s eventsThe Big Picture

Schedule for WeekCalculated Risk

Economic CalendarBerenberg
US: near 50% chance the Fed starts tapering * Eurozone: PMIs to show continued modest recovery * UK: Unemployment and inflation steady, growth raised

Economic CalendarHandelsbanken

UK Next Week's Agenda and Wrap UpHandelsbanken

Wall Street Week Ahead Reuters
Will Fed end 2013 with bang or whimper?

5 Things to Watch for in Week of Dec. 16WSJ

Europe’s Week Ahead: Fed Tapering Decision KeyWSJ

Weighing the Week Ahead: A Turning Point for the Fed? A Dash of Insight
Taper or not to taper, and if taper, will it crash the markets

Key events in the week ahead by Goldman Sachs – ZH

The Week Ahead and BeyondMarc to Market
There are three main events in the days ahead that will set the stage of the immediate post-holiday period:  The FOMC meeting, the flash euro area PMIs and the European summit.  

Viikkokatsaus: Fed kertoo ”taaperostaan”Nordea
Yhdysvalloissa sopu budjetista * Tavallista tärkeämpi keskuspankkien viikko * Alustavia ostopäällikköindeksejä

EU Week Ahead: Push For Deal On Banking UnionWSJ
Several meetings of European finance ministers and a summit of European Union leaders highlight a busy week before the year-end holidays begin.

Weekly Focus: Markets prepared for Fed tapering Danske Bank
We expect the Fed to announce tapering next week but also to balance it with strong forward guidance to anchor bond yields. In Sweden, subdued inflation has paved the way for a 25bp rate cut by the Riksbank next week. We expect the European Council to close a deal on banking union at last. In the euro area, we expect manufacturing PMIs to confirm a moderate recovery is continuing. We do not expect the Bank of Japan to ease further next week despite slower Q3 growth.

Week AheadNordea
US: Next week’s key event is the two-day FOMC meeting, which concludes on Wednesday. We believe there is close to a 50% chance that the Fed will announce tapering of its asset purchases. Euro area: Sentiment indicators for December will dominate the last full week ahead of Christmas. We expect an increase in both PMIs, IFO and ZEW. Sweden: We expect the Riksbank to cut rates (Tuesday) by 25bp next week. The reason is that the pain threshold for how low inflation the Riksbank can accept has probably been passed.

Strategy: Fed tapering coming up...Danske Bank
Fed tapering coming up, but markets are prepared. Periphery to continue strong performance. ECB under more pressure from strong euro and falling inflation. EUR/USD pushed higher again, JPY weakening to continue. Chinese production growth losing some momentum.

Yield Forecast Update - ECB to take a major step, by doing a minor cutDanske Bank
During the past month EUR swap rates have moved higher despite a significant tightening in swap spreads and mixed data. This follows as the ECB has proved reluctant to ease further and the likelihood of QE tapering by the Fed in December has risen. In the US short-end rates have trickled lower, while long-end rates have inched higher. The Fed has succeeded in detaching expectations of future rate hikes from the decision to taper the QE programme, thereby leaving the curve at record-steep levels

Euro Rates UpdateNordea

FI Viewpoint: The tea is getting colderNordea
Bonds under pressure – long yields set to climb further in the near term. Profit taking in Spanish and Italian bonds begun. Equity prices still falling. There is still hope in US politics. More good news from the US economy. Norway moves on the counter-cyclical buffer – but gradually. US PPI and more ECB speeches ahead.

Weekly Credit UpdateDanske Bank
Primary market activity slowing with year-end approaching * Introduction of the European single resolution mechanism * Counter-cyclical buffer introduced in Norway 

Credit Markets Remain Calm (...For Now)The Short Side of Long
Credit markets remain calm with QE3 still in full force * Instead of de-leverging, credit is growing... so more pain is coming!

FX Outlook: Euro and Sterling Momentum FadesMarc to Market
The breadth of the dollar's decline in recent weeks appeared to have narrowed to essentially the euro and sterling.  The take away from last week's price action is that those two currencies have seen the upside momentum fade and some deterioration of their technical condition.  It could simply be some pre-cautionary position adjustment ahead of the FOMC meeting and year-end.

Update On CurrenciesThe Short Side of Long
Apart from Yen, commodity currencies have under performed! * Commodity currencies performed superbly during 2000s * Hedge fund hold extreme bearish bets on Aussie & Loonie

EMEA WeeklyDanske Bank
Earlier this week we published our FX Top Trades for 2014. Among our 10 top trades three were EMEA FX trades.

EM FX Monocle - The aftershocksNordea
Although the tapering earthquake is over, the aftershocks remain. EM FX volatility will likely be driven up by the actual tapering in H1 2014 and elections in H2.

Emerging Market: PreviewMarc to Market

EM Week Aheadbeyondbrics / FT

Economic Calendar –
Economic Calendar – BB
EU calendar –

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