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Tuesday, December 3

3rd Dec - Doubts linger ahead of numbers

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Portugal Buys Time With Debt ExchangeWSJ
By swapping €6.64 billion worth of short-dated debt for bonds that will mature later, Portugal has reduced the amount of cash it needs to cover maturing bonds over the next two years by a quarter.

Sweden: What to make of PMI?Danske Bank

Europe Moves Toward CompromiseMarc to Market
The European Union is gradually moving to a compromise on the Single Resolution Mechanism.  It is intended to be agreed up before the end of the year to give the European Parliament time to debate and eventually accept it prior to the run-up to the May elections.

Germany: ‘Fear of social tourism’Presseurop
Die Welt further recommends that European commissioners should “rein in their moral indignation” against countries that want to restrict access to their social welfare systems. “The application of European law is the best way to fight the populists”

ECB Preview: More stimulus, but not in DecemberDanske Bank

An important but also confusing speech by Peter Praet on disinflationECB Watchers
Praet explicitly recognizes that non-standard measures can also be used to fight “falling prices”, and not just to address financial fragmentation as in the Trichet doctrine. This is a pretty important departure from a doctrine point of view and may open the door to more agressive actions.

ISM vs the hard dataalphaville / FT
Two recent notes emphasise that the impressive recent ISM manufacturing readings in the US are probably as much about expectations of future performance as about what has already happened.

Fed Official: Tests of New Tool Are Going WellWSJ
An official responsible for implementing Fed monetary policy said that tests of a new tool, designed to help the central bank control short-term interest rates when the time comes to tighten monetary policy, appear to be going well.

We need to talk about deflation, againalphaville / FT
Since September 2011, the Fed has succeeded in managing inflation expectations but not inflation itself. Has anybody noticed? What happens when they do? Will QE4 be as successful at changing even inflation expectations when QE1, QE2, Operation Twist and QE3 have failed to prevent recorded inflation from now falling to 1.1%?

Stop the taper talk—the Fed has actually done too littleQuartz

Global PMIs point to stronger growth in 2014TradingFloor
Global manufacturing output reached its highest level in 32 months, according to our PMI manufacturing tracker. This supports our case for stronger global growth next year.

These 17 countries may have housing bubbles. If they pop, God help us all.WaPo
Nouriel Roubini was one of the most presciently pessimistic analysts of the global economy in the run-up to the global financial crisis. And now he thinks it's happening again.

Suomi nousee jälkijunassaEK
Tutkimuslaitosten suhdanne-ennusteet ovat antaneet vaatimattoman kuvan Suomen taloustilanteesta, mutta ne saattavat silti olla liian myönteisiä. Laaditut ennusteet nojaavat virallisiin tilastoihin, joiden mukaan talous olisi kääntynyt kasvuun jo kesän aikana. Tämä ei oikein vastaa yleistä mielikuvaa. Virallisia tilastoja onkin viime vuosina korjattu usein jälkikäteen.

Vain kansainvälisyys nostaa Suomen suostaHS
Euroopan yhdentyminen on yksi maamme kansainvälisen toiminnan peruskivistä. Yksin olemme kuin lastu laineilla. Yhdentymisen suurin vaara meillä ja muualla eivät ole historiattomat populistipuolueet vaan niiden säikäyttämät perinteiset puolueet.

Rikkaat, alistettu kansanosaSaloniemi

Maahanmuutto teki Pisan toiseenkin polveenJuhani Huopainen / US