EUROPE
Brussels blog round
up 7 – 13 December – Europp
/ LSE
Bank supervision, EU defence policy, and does migration make you
happier?
Is the eurozone
beginning to wake up to reality? – The Money Illusion
If the Germans are recognizing that eurozone NGDP growth is too slow,
that’s a very positive sign. On the
other hand it’s frustrating to see people continue to get causality backwards.
BANKING UNION
Europe’s Cypriot
Solution for Failing Banks – PIIE
The European Council and European Parliament have reached a political
agreement on how to deal with banking failures. The new rules—known as the Bank
Recovery and Resolution Directive (BRRD)—make clear that the treatment of
Cypriot banks earlier in 2013 set a precedent.
Charlemagne: Banking
on a new union – The
Economist
The promises and pitfalls of the euro zone’s next big idea.
European banks: From
bail-out to bail-in – The Economist
Slovenia’s banking bail-out
announced on December 12th followed a familiar pattern. Having driven over the
precipice thanks to crazy lending, the country’s three big banks are being
hauled back onto the road by taxpayers.
Europe faces moment of truth on banks, with flawed defences – Reuters
Sharp rise in banks buying own governments' bonds * Cheap ECB loans
gives banks windfall profit on state debt * Politicians' attempts to break
"doom loop" faltering
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
More easing from the
ECB: We expect a negative deposit rate – Danske
Bank
We see a strong case for more easing from the ECB. Our main scenario is
a 0.1pp deposit cut at the meeting in March together with a 0.1pp refi cut.
Voting rights at the
ECB: New club rules – The
Economist
Germans will soon have another reason to fume about the euro
How long can the ECB
hold out before taking the QE route? – TradingFloor
The ECB needs to cross
the Rubicon next year and launch a QE programme if it's to address the current
weakness in the Eurozone. But the data may need to get even worse before a
majority on the governing council emerges in favour of monetary stimulus.
Euro area: Employment
no longer falling – Nordea
In the Euro area, employment is no longer falling. In a few "crisis
countries", employment actually grew strongly in Q3. Looking forward, the
recovery heavily supported by the ECB still has a long way to go, especially on
the labour market.
Economic Recovery in
the Euro Area – The role of Monetary Policy – ECB
Peter Praet, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, 13 December 2013
COUNTRIES
From an initial glance, it may seem that the “luck of the Irish” has
returned. But first impressions can often be deceiving: Ireland is almost as far
away as ever from a clean bill of economic health.
We took a closer look at the Netherlands both from a macro
and a bond perspective. Growth will at best be slow next year and the
debt-to-GDP ratio is likely to go on rising. We prefer Finnish and Austrian
over Dutch bonds.
Ask people why they're camped out in Kiev's streets, and
you'll get a multitude of answers. Will that doom the protest movement?
UNITED STATES
Congress' agenda for the next year is full of specifics, including
raising the debt ceiling, funding individual government programs, immigration
reform and passing a farm bill.
FEDERAL RESERVE
Should the Fed Switch Its Benchmark Rates? – WSJ
The Federal Reserve is
testing a new bond-trading program that is working so well, some influential
people think it could lead the central bank to ditch its current policy lever.
Great Graphic: Fed
Forecasts for 2013 and What Many are Missing – Marc
to Market
FOMC preview : 50:50
odds of Fed tapering next week – Nordea
We believe there is close to a 50% chance that the Fed will announce
tapering of its asset purchases as early as next week’s FOMC meeting. If
tapering is not announced on Wednesday 18 December, we would expect it at the
28-29 January meeting. Thus, we believe the Fed is very close to an inflection
point with a shift from more to less policy easing.
ASIA
Grading Abenomics – Project
Syndicate
Last December, Shinzo Abe returned as Japan's prime minister and quickly
launched what came to be known as “Abenomics,” a strategy designed to end almost
two decades of deflation and stagnation. A year later, an initial assessment of
how Abe's strategy is faring indicates both progress and shortcomings.
The real most
important chart of 2013? – Noahpinion
It has looked for the
past few years that China has been casting about for an enemy against
which to fight a "splendid little war".
OTHER
Trade Ideas for 2014 – Global
Macro Trading
Goldman's Top 100
Charts Of 2013 - Part 1 – ZH
The 10 Elections to
Watch in 2014 – The
Atlantic
From Brazil to Turkey, the races that will
matter next year
Kass: Expect the
Unexpected in 2014 – The
Street
Market-Making Is
Making Markets – View
/ BB
[Feb 2010] Basically,
It's Over – Charlie
Munger / Slate
A parable about how one nation came to financial ruin.
OFF-TOPIC
NSA uses Google
cookies to pinpoint targets for hacking – WaPo
Differences in How
Men and Women Think Are Hard-Wired – WSJ
Recent Studies Raise the Possibility That Male Brains Are Wired for
Focus, Female Brains for Multitasking
2013: The Year in
Photos, January – April – The
Atlantic
FINNISH
Uusi kirstunvartija povaa seitsemää kovaa
vuotta – TalSa
Valtiovarainministeriön kansantalousosaston
uusi osastopäällikkö Markus Sovala uskoo tulevaisuuteen. Edessä ovat kuitenkin
rankat ajat.
Eurokriisin
inhimilliset kustannukset eivät näy talousmalleissa – TalSa
Pankinjohtajat: Kotitalouksien
lainanottohalut alamaissa – TalSa
Olisipa 1930-luku? Suomen velkasuhde kasvanut
eniten euromaista – TalSa