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Wednesday, December 18

18th Dec - EZ's b-union, German IFO, PIMCO monthlies

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

Italy’s Saccomanni Attacks German Bank-Resolution PlanWSJ
In a letter to some of his counterparts, Italy’s Finance Minister Fabrizio Saccomanni has composed his wish list for a new system to wind down failing euro-zone banks.

Banking union: the limits of the backstops dealBrussels blog / FT
Whenever it comes to eurozone backstops, it usually pays to be beware of fine print and Germans bearing gifts.

Banking union … timber not steelMacroScope / Reuters
If a government could not foot the bill, it could borrow from the euro zone’s ESM bailout fund. All that means the doom loop comprising weak banks and sovereigns will not be comprehensively broken for several years yet. In 2025, when the common fund is fully stocked, it could borrow on the markets itself to generate more funds. That’s a long time away.

Merkel: If you want more Europe, be prepared for EU treaty changeOpen Europe
Merkel urges EU treaty change in first speech of new termReuters
Merkel sees progress in overcoming Europe's crisisReuters
Merkel urged European partners to tackle flaws in their currency union by ceding control over economic policy and making politically sensitive changes to the bloc's treaty. Crisis had not yet been overcome but that first signs of success were evident, especially in countries like Ireland and Spain.

Germany: Companies end the year in festive moodNordea
German companies are clearly looking forward to 2014. The Ifo index and other sentiment indicators are pointing towards an upside risk for our GDP forecast for Q4. But then France might surprise on the downside so that the Euro-area economy as a whole is still struggling.

IFO: Lift-off for Germany and the DAXTradingFloor
Germany's December business sentiment exudes welcome cheerTradingFloor
German economy ends year with high hopesMerkelnomics

Italy’s president fears violent insurrection in 2014 but offers no remedyThe Telegraph

Spanish Bad Loans Jump To New Record As Banks Come Clean Over Mortgage DefaultsZH

Housing Starts, Permits Surge On Seasonal Adjustments, Rental UnitsZH

(see my earlier special for Federal Reserve)

BOJ Beat: Kuroda Ends 2013 Facing Heavy Dose of SkepticismWSJ
Since Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda led the Bank of Japan to sharply expand its monetary easing eight months ago, he has tried to convince the public through 17 news conferences and 22 public speeches that the central bank can meet its inflation goal in time. But his year-end report card doesn't look impressive.

Cyclical Outlook for EuropePIMCO
Weakness in the core, credit tightness in the periphery and external risks may derail the eurozone’s positive (if low) growth in 2014.

Cyclical Outlook: Synchronized OptimismPIMCO
Many challenges to growth are gradually exhausting themselves or are being overcome via alternatives, yielding a brighter growth outlook for 2014.

Cyclical Outlook for Asia: Growth Is Stabilizing but Not StellarPIMCO
Asia’s economic outlook will be shaped by global growth and central bank policies, as well as several regional influences in the coming year.

UK Perspectives: A Much Better DilemmaPIMCO
The UK recovery must be allowed to recover lost output rather than risk a pre-emptive monetary tightening.

Australia Perspectives: Australia Inc.PIMCO
The elevated exchange rate is restraining non-mining business investment in Australia.

European Perspectives: Muddling ThroughPIMCO
The ‘Realpolitik’of the Eurozone Crisis - It remains to be seen whether current policy tools can maintain economic momentum across Europe’s heterogeneous regions

Global Central Bank Focus: Coal in the Fed’s Stock-ingPIMCO
Forward guidance has become an increasingly common practice among global central banks. Communicating a possible change in the policy rate could have a large effect on long-term interest rates. * Capital has moved literally around the globe as a result of central bank activism in developed countries. * Looking ahead, we expect 2014 to be a year of increased differentiation across emerging markets in terms of economic fundamentals, policy reactions and market outcomes.

Global Credit Perspectives: Settling InPIMCO
U.S. housing-related investments should remain attractive as the economy and private sector heal.

Long/Short Equity Strategy: Pick Your SpotsPIMCO
U.S. equities have surged this year. We believe equities are still investable, but you need to pick your spots.

Goldman's Top 100 Charts Of 2013 - Part 2ZH

Global Update - Happy New Year 2014Nordea
The world economy looks set to get a good beginning to the New Year. Confidence indicators from the major countries have been quite extraordinarily strong recently, and the US economy seems heading in the direction of a self-sustaining recovery.

Three 2014 bond market predictions for your Christmas stockingTradingFloor
Our last bond update for this year takes a glance into 2014 with three specific predictions that look to have more than a fighting chance of unfolding as the year progresses.

Things That Make You Go Hmmm...  ZH
Grant Williams newsletter: Like Being Completely Out Of Touch With Reality

Tämän takia Suomeakin hoputetaan pankkiunioniinJan Hurri / TalSa
EU-komissio, EKP ja finanssikeskusten suurpankit haluavat euromaiden pankkiunionin valmiiksi mahdollisimman pian. Ne haluavat, että yhteinen tukipiikki on valmiina avattavaksi, kun pankkien pääomia on taas paikattava. Mutta miksi Suomi hosuu pankkiliittoa euromaiden eikä Pohjoismaiden kanssa?
Asiantuntija tyrmää pankkiunionin: Valta katoaa jäsenmailta, maksumiehen rooli jääYLE
Valtiovarainministerit jatkavat neuvotteluja pankkiunionin kriisinratkaisumekanismista

Yrityksillä edelleen kipukohtia rahoituksessaan – myös merkkejä paremmasta näkyvissäEK
Aiempaa suurempi osa keskisuurista ja suurista yrityksistä on hankkinut viimeksi kuluneen vuoden aikana uutta rahoitusta. Samaan aikaan rahoituksen hankinta-aikeissaan epäonnistuneiden tai näistä aikeista luopuneiden yritysten osuus näyttäisi kyselyn perusteella kasvaneen. Tiedot käyvät ilmi Yritysrahoituskysely 2013 -raportista.