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Friday, December 20

20th Dec - EZ's weak b-union, budget discipline

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

Europe’s north and south must reform togetherMario Monti / The A-list / FT
A mutual learning process is now essential. The south, as it adapts to the social market economy, must be more determined in pursuing fiscal discipline and structural reforms. Likewise the north, Germany in particular, must appreciate that such efforts by the south are unlikely to generate sustainable improvements unless Europe’s policy framework becomes more growth-friendly.

EU summit: Will anyone be signing contracts?Brussels blog / FT
Merkel's reform contracts pushed back until October euobserver
…whether summiteers would sign up to a German-backed plan that would require all eurozone countries to sign annual contracts with Brussels obligating them to liberalise their economies… With opposition growing in both the north and the south, the draft communiqué does what the EU does best: it puts off the decision for another six months. Part of the reason, senior EU officials acknowledge, is that they’re loath to approve more control of economic policy from Brussels ahead of May’s European parliament elections,

Stagnant German Wages Spell Bad News for Euro ZoneWSJ
Earnings, including wages and bonuses, grew by just 1.3% over the year ending in the third quarter, and earnings adjusted for inflation fell 0.3%...

Germans go on holiday highly confident about economyTradingFloor

Weidmann says hard to steer banks' use of ECB loansReuters

Ireland ‘unfairly treated’ over bondholdersFT
The IMF’s Ajay Chopra says that burdening Irish taxpayers with having to support bust banks while paying back senior bondholders was unfair

S&P cuts EU long-term rating to AA+ – Reuters
S&P: Britain's euroscepticism a major factor in EU's loss of triple-A – The Telegraph
EU Stripped of AAA Credit Rating at S&P – BB
U.K. Keeps Top Rating at S&P as Debt Seen to Peak Earlier – BB

EU And UK’s Complex Ratings Game – WSJ

How to shutter a bank in EuropeBrussels blog / FT

The German banking unionOpen Europe
A deal is positive and necessary. That said, the process remains incredibly complex and still seems highly national or intergovernmental. If there was a serious failure of a large cross border bank, such as we saw with Dexia, would the process really be any smoother or simpler than last time around?

Banking union falls short of EU goal – FT
Banking union is a sham that solves nothing – FT
European banking union is a disappointment – FT
EU banking union: progress of sorts – FT

Latest agreement still some distance from a fully-fledged banking unionEuropp / LSE
The current agreement still reflects many of the problems which have existed since this period, such as the exclusion of German savings banks from the proposed supervisory system.

The Fox and the ECBProject Syndicate
Danièle Nouy, who has just been named the ECB’s first head of banking supervision, faces a difficult task ahead in overseeing some 130 banks that account for 80% of eurozone assets. Though Nouy is knowledgeable and highly capable, the ECB’s decision-making mechanisms are poorly suited to the role of banking supervisor.


GDP Q3 Third Estimate: Upside Surprise at 4.1% - dshort
Highlights from the Third-Quarter GDP Revision – WSJ
Q3 GDP Revised up to 4.1% - Calculated Risk
GDP Revision Smashes Expectations – ZH

GDP grew a whopping 4.1 percent in the third quarter – WaPo
GDP Q3 Third Estimate: Upside Surprise at 4.1% - dshort
Economists React: Third-Quarter GDP ‘Downright Impressive’ – WSJ
Main Reasons For "Upward Revised" Q3 Personal Spending: Healthcare And Gasoline – ZH
Economists React: Third-Quarter GDP ‘Downright Impressive’ – WSJ

From Australia’s Central Bank Governor, A Cry for HelpWSJ
Australia’s central bank governor seems to be at the end of his tether. Eight interest rate cuts over the past two years have brought the country’s benchmark interest rate to record lows, but have failed to spark a broad-based economic recovery. Cutting them more might push an already frothy housing market over the edge. Now, Glenn Stevens says, it’s up to the government to provide the spark for recovery.

Search For YieldShort Side of Long
Australian shares yielding substantially more then cash * Investors continue to search for yield in the ZIRP environment * Yes… believe it or not – Australian property can decline in price! *

China: No credit crunch this timeNordea
China’s liquidity condition is tight and the benchmark 7-day repo rate jumped to 10% at one point. However, we still believe this time is different from the credit crunch in June. The market is likely to calm down in the coming week. No radical action is expected from the PBoC, which aims deleveraging the economy withoutn causing market panic.

China: Money market stress returnsDanske Bank
The most recent spike in money market rates will probably be temporary as in June. However, the increase in money market rates and government bond yields over the past six months also reflects a conscious tighter monetary policy by PBoC and this will gradually weigh on investment demand and growth next year.

Japan Govt Likely to Drop Word “Deflation” from Report – WSJ
BoJ signals it will not necessarily ease on weaker data after sales tax hike – Danske Bank
BoJ: the glass is half full – BNP Paribas
BoJ hails Fed tapering, sticks with its own massive stimulus – Reuters

EM FX: Modest taper reactionNordea
After months of talking, writing, thinking and even dreaming about tapering – the day finally arrived when the Fed announced that it would reduce its monthly bond purchases. Although most Emerging Market currencies eased against the stronger USD, the overall reaction was still fairly subtle and did in no way resemble the jumps seen in May when the Fed first hinted at tapering.

EMEA Weekly, Week 52Danske Bank

Pankkiunionista on tulossa halvaantunutHenri Myllyniemi / US

VM: Suomi on pian yksi euroalueen ylivelkaisistaTalSa
Suomi on osallistunut Euroopan vakausmekanismi EVM:n ja rahoitusvakausvälineen ERVV:n rahoittamiseen merkittävillä summilla. Ilman näitä solidaarisuustoimia Suomen julkinen velka ei ylittäisi  enimmäisrajaa.

Aamukatsaus: Työttömyyskö nitistää Suomen asuntomarkkinat? - Nordea
Lisäksi: Kaikki tietävät, että korot nousevat

Eero Lehti: Yle-veron tarkoitus tuhota SDP-vastaiset maakuntalehdetVerkkouutiset

Marraskuun työttömyysaste 7,9 prosenttiaTilastokeskus
Konkurssien määrä kasvoi tammi-marrask. 5,1 prosenttia YoYTilastokeskus